發(fā)布時間：2018-10-23 17:28

【摘要】： 水資源短缺問題越來越成為制約社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和影響社會穩(wěn)定的重要因素之一，這種現(xiàn)象在我國北方地區(qū)尤為突出。水資源是否短缺是受供給和需求兩個主要因素影響，當(dāng)供給不能滿足用水需求時，就會出現(xiàn)水資源短缺風(fēng)險。受降雨、徑流及其它各種隨機(jī)因素的影響，供水和需水都會不同程度地存在許多不確定性因素，因此，我國大多數(shù)地區(qū)出現(xiàn)水資源短缺風(fēng)險是必然的。如何緩解或避免由于缺水風(fēng)險所造成的國民經(jīng)濟(jì)損失，一直是眾多學(xué)者關(guān)注的問題，并為此開展過大量的研究工作，業(yè)已取得了許多有價值的研究成果。本研究在繼承已有研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，以首都圈(京、津地區(qū))為例，綜合運(yùn)用水資源工程、風(fēng)險分析理論、系統(tǒng)工程、概率論、模糊數(shù)學(xué)、計算數(shù)學(xué)等相關(guān)專業(yè)知識，對區(qū)域水資源短缺風(fēng)險管理的理論與方法進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)研究，本文特色在于對風(fēng)險分析理論的系統(tǒng)化、實用化和理論聯(lián)系實際方面貢獻(xiàn)，主要研究內(nèi)容涵蓋如下方面： (1)對水資源風(fēng)險的定義進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)闡述，建立了水資源系統(tǒng)可靠性和風(fēng)險系統(tǒng)框架，構(gòu)建并描述了水資源風(fēng)險的性能指標(biāo)，對水資源系統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險屬性和風(fēng)險特性等進(jìn)行了分析。 (2)在系統(tǒng)描述風(fēng)險識別原理和方法的基礎(chǔ)上，對首都圈水資源系統(tǒng)所面臨的水資源短缺風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)識別，為便于明晰水資源風(fēng)險因子間的復(fù)雜關(guān)系，建立了水資源風(fēng)險因素的影響圖概念模型。 (3)依據(jù)水資源系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險分析方法，結(jié)合水資源供需分析模型，提出了具有大型水庫群的區(qū)域供用水系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險分析模型。該模型綜合模擬方法和優(yōu)化方法的優(yōu) 點，在對區(qū)域供用水系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行模擬的同時，采用年最大供水量為目標(biāo)函數(shù)對水資源 系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行長系列的供需分析，然后統(tǒng)計區(qū)域水資源系統(tǒng)的缺水量及其概率分布，同 時用水資源系統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險性能指標(biāo)對水資源短缺風(fēng)險進(jìn)行描述。 （4）采用模糊綜合評判模型對水資源短缺風(fēng)險結(jié)果進(jìn)行評價。利用水資源投 入產(chǎn)出宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)模型，評估了水資源短缺的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失。在分析水資源系統(tǒng)各性能指 標(biāo)的基礎(chǔ)上，提出了基于地理信息系統(tǒng)的水資源短缺風(fēng)險的綜合區(qū)劃指標(biāo)模型，并 對首都留區(qū)域的水資源短缺風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了綜合區(qū)劃。 （5）探討了采取各種風(fēng)險處理和調(diào)控的技術(shù)手段，對水資源系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險性能指 標(biāo)的影響程度。研究了各種風(fēng)險管理技術(shù)手段對緩解或避免水資源短缺損失的貢獻(xiàn) 率。并對水資源短缺風(fēng)險調(diào)控的策略進(jìn)行了探討。 （6）利用系統(tǒng)理論中風(fēng)險決策的理論與方法，，將水資源短缺風(fēng)險決策分三個 層次，即單目標(biāo)風(fēng)險決策、效用期望值決策和多目標(biāo)風(fēng)險決策，詳細(xì)研究了水資源 短缺風(fēng)險的決策過程。 門）基于供給與需求均衡原理，從兩個方面建立水資源短缺風(fēng)險的最優(yōu)控制 標(biāo)準(zhǔn)理論，一是針對整個區(qū)域水資源保障系統(tǒng)，二是在區(qū)域發(fā)生水資源短缺風(fēng)險后 的調(diào)控準(zhǔn)則。
[Abstract]:The shortage of water resources has become one of the important factors restricting the social and economic development and social stability, especially in northern China. The shortage of water resources is influenced by two main factors of supply and demand, and when the supply does not meet the demand of water, there will be a risk of water shortage. Due to the influence of rainfall, runoff and other random factors, there are many uncertainties in water supply and water demand. Therefore, the risk of water shortage in most parts of our country is inevitable. How to alleviate or avoid the loss of national economy caused by the risk of water shortage has always been a matter of concern to many scholars, and a lot of research work has been carried out for this purpose, and many valuable research results have been obtained. On the basis of inheriting the existing research results and taking the capital circle (Beijing and Tianjin) as an example, we comprehensively apply the relevant professional knowledge such as water resources engineering, risk analysis theory, system engineering, probability theory, fuzzy mathematics and calculation mathematics, etc. This paper systematically studies the theory and method of regional water resource shortage risk management, which is characterized by systematic, practical and theoretical contributions to the theory of risk analysis. (1) The definition of water resource risk is expounded in detail, the framework of water resource system reliability and risk system is established, the performance index of water resource risk is constructed and described, and the risk attribute and wind of water resource system are constructed. Based on the system description risk identification principle and method, the paper systematically identifies the water resource shortage risk faced by the capital circle water resources system, and provides a complex relationship between the risk factors of water resources. (3) According to the risk analysis method of water resources system, combined with the supply and demand of water resources. An analytical model is presented, and a large reservoir group is proposed. Risk analysis model for regional water supply system. The comprehensive simulation method and optimization method of the model are excellent. Point, at the same time as simulation of the water supply system in the area, adopt Year The Maximum Flow Rate is the Target Function to the Water Resources System Supply and demand analysis of governor series, then statistics of water shortage of regional water resources system and its almost rate distribution, same On the Risk Performance Index of Water Resources System at the Time of Time The risk of water shortage is described. (4) Using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to evaluate the result of water shortage risk Price. Taking advantage of water resources into the output macro The economic loss of water resource shortage is evaluated by the economic model, and the performance of water resources system is analyzed. On the basis of the subject matter, the paper puts forward a comprehensive method based on GIS-based water resources shortage risk. zonation Index model and leave the capital The risk of water shortage in the region has been divided. By adopting the technical means of various risk treatment and regulation, the risk performance of water resources system is defined as follows: The degree of influence of the subject matter. The contribution of various risk management techniques to alleviating or avoiding the loss of water resource shortage is investigated. The paper discusses the strategy of water resource shortage risk regulation. (6) Utilization
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2003
【分類號】：TV213.4

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前3條

1 梁小俊;樓章華;許月萍;王翠柏;屈國棟;;杭州城市引配水系統(tǒng)綜合效益評價[J];中國水利;2012年06期

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相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前8條

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