發(fā)布時間：2018-09-07 08:16

【摘要】：訂單農業(yè)供應鏈實現(xiàn)了農戶的小生產與大市場的有效對接,既保證了農戶的收入,又提高了農業(yè)企業(yè)原材料供應的穩(wěn)定性,在我國及世界上其它地區(qū)都得到了廣泛的推廣。然而,在訂單農業(yè)供應鏈實際運營中,農業(yè)企業(yè)除了要應對市場風險外,還要面臨農產品供應不確定的挑戰(zhàn)。農產品供應不確定是指在農產品的成熟時期,公司按照契約合同進行農產品的收購,但農戶所提供農產品的數(shù)量或質量是不確定的。農產品生長條件(如溫度、濕度等)的變化、勞動力投入不足、農戶的故意違約、農業(yè)氣象災害等都會導致農產品供應的不確定。農產品供應不確定不僅增加了農業(yè)企業(yè)的運營成本,而且還會影響農產品供應鏈的穩(wěn)定性和可靠性,進而制約我國農業(yè)產業(yè)化的發(fā)展。目前,關于訂單農業(yè)供應鏈的研究大多從完善契約的角度應對違約風險,鮮有從企業(yè)的角度研究如何應對農產品供應不確定。論文針對訂單農業(yè)供應鏈中農產品供應不確定問題,從農業(yè)龍頭企業(yè)決策者的采購決策視角出發(fā),采用事前風險控制策略,研究如何通過公司選擇農戶及訂單分配的優(yōu)化來有效緩解或降低因農產品供應不確定導致的公司損失。首先,對云南省某省級重點農業(yè)龍頭企業(yè)進行了實地調研,在了解企業(yè)基本信息的基礎上對企業(yè)所提供的2015年農戶簽約量及其供應的相關數(shù)據(jù)進行了統(tǒng)計分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)農戶實際供應農產品在數(shù)量和質量上都是不確定的,而且這種不確定服從正態(tài)分布。其次,考慮企業(yè)與農戶簽約開始至收購季農產品收購完成這一過程中所涉及到的企業(yè)成本支出,以期望總成本最小為目標函數(shù),建立了農產品供應不確定下農戶選擇及訂單分配模型。再次,依據(jù)調研數(shù)據(jù)設計了若干不同的仿真算例,并分別用遺傳算法和粒子群算法對算例進行求解,驗證了模型的有效性和算法的可行性,并從運算速度和精確度兩個方面對兩種算法求解結果進行比較,發(fā)現(xiàn)粒子群算法對于求解模型具有相對的優(yōu)勢。最后,通過參數(shù)靈敏度分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：在農戶供應不確定的情況下,龍頭企業(yè)與農戶的總簽約量均大于實際需求量,且總簽約量和期望總成本隨農戶實際供應不穩(wěn)定程度的增加而增大：期望總成本隨單位采購成本、單位農戶契約關系建立成本、單位生產技術服務成本、供應率的標準差的增加而線性增加,隨單位缺貨成本和單位處理成本的增加而線性減少；總簽約量隨著單位采購成本、單位生產技術服務成本的增加總體呈現(xiàn)減少趨勢,隨著單位缺貨成本、單位處理成本和供應率的標準差的增加總體呈增加趨勢；單位農戶契約關系建立成本、農戶的生產能力、供應率的均值以及供應率的標準差的組合變化對農戶選擇的結果影響不明顯,但隨著這四個參數(shù)的不斷優(yōu)化,農戶被選擇的幾率增大,但處于同一水平的農戶被選擇的幾率并不完全相同。論文的研究有利于進一步完善訂單農業(yè)供應鏈管理理論,對于提高農業(yè)企業(yè)應對供應不確定風險能力,降低運營成本,進而提高訂單農業(yè)供應鏈的穩(wěn)定性有積極意義。
[Abstract]:The order agricultural supply chain has realized the effective docking between the small-scale production of farmers and the large market, guaranteeing the income of farmers and improving the stability of raw material supply of agricultural enterprises, which has been widely promoted in China and other parts of the world. Uncertainty in the supply of agricultural products refers to the acquisition of agricultural products by companies in accordance with contract contracts during the mature period of agricultural products, but the quantity or quality of agricultural products provided by farmers is uncertain. Farmers'deliberate default, agricultural meteorological disasters and other disasters will lead to uncertainty in the supply of agricultural products. Uncertainty in the supply of agricultural products not only increases the operating costs of agricultural enterprises, but also affects the stability and reliability of the supply chain of agricultural products, thus restricting the development of agricultural industrialization in China. Most of them deal with the risk of breach of contract from the perspective of perfecting contracts, but few of them study how to deal with the supply uncertainty of agricultural products from the perspective of enterprises. Firstly, the key agricultural leading enterprises in Yunnan Province were investigated on the spot. On the basis of understanding the basic information of the enterprises, the relevant data of farmers'contract volume and its supply in 2015 were provided by the enterprises. Statistical analysis shows that the quantity and quality of agricultural products supplied by farmers are uncertain, and the uncertainties obey normal distribution. Secondly, considering the cost expenditure of enterprises involved in the process from the contract between enterprises and farmers to the completion of purchasing seasonal agricultural products, the objective function is to minimize the expected total cost. Thirdly, according to the research data, several different simulation examples are designed and solved by genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization respectively. The validity of the model and the feasibility of the algorithm are verified, and the two algorithms are solved from two aspects of operation speed and accuracy. Finally, through parameter sensitivity analysis, it is found that the total amount of contract signed between leading enterprises and farmers is greater than the actual demand, and the total amount of contract signed and the expected total cost increase with the degree of instability of farmers'actual supply. The expected total cost increases linearly with the increase of unit purchase cost, unit farmer contractual relationship establishment cost, unit production technology service cost and standard deviation of supply rate, and linearly decreases with the increase of unit shortage cost and unit processing cost; the total contracted quantity decreases linearly with unit purchase cost and unit production technology service cost. With the unit shortage cost, the standard deviation of unit processing cost and supply rate increases as a whole; the combination of the contract establishment cost, the productive capacity, the mean of supply rate and the standard deviation of supply rate has no obvious effect on the result of farmers'choice, but with the increase of unit shortage cost, the standard deviation of unit processing cost and supply rate increases as a whole. With the continuous optimization of these four parameters, the probability of farmers being selected increases, but the probability of farmers being selected at the same level is not entirely the same. The study of this paper is conducive to further improve the theory of order agricultural supply chain management, to improve the ability of agricultural enterprises to cope with supply uncertainties risk, reduce operating costs, and then increase the order. The stability of single agricultural supply chain is of positive significance.
【學位授予單位】：昆明理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F326.6
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本文編號：2227718