發(fā)布時間：2018-05-04 09:17

  本文選題：農(nóng)戶 + 金融需求��； 參考：《西南財經(jīng)大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：社會主義“和諧社會”的構(gòu)建離不開新農(nóng)村的建設(shè),離不開農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。自2008年以來,我國農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟發(fā)展顯示了兩個新的特點：一是黨的十七屆三中全會的召開,通過了《中共中央關(guān)于推進農(nóng)村改革發(fā)展若干重大問題的決定》,全會《決定》著重關(guān)于推進農(nóng)村改革發(fā)展的問題,國家加大了對農(nóng)村的投資力度,實施了大量的支農(nóng)、惠農(nóng)政策,極大地刺激了農(nóng)民生產(chǎn)的積極性；二是全球金融危機對我國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展也造成了相當大的影響,實體經(jīng)濟受到強烈的沖擊,沿海地區(qū)大量企業(yè)的破產(chǎn)倒閉導致了農(nóng)民工返鄉(xiāng),并且還出現(xiàn)了農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格逐漸下調(diào)等問題。當今,“三農(nóng)”問題始終是政府工作的重點和難點,但當前我國農(nóng)村金融體系并不能適應(yīng)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展需要,現(xiàn)有的農(nóng)村金融制度不能夠滿足農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟主體的融資需求,農(nóng)村地區(qū)金融的缺位成為農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的瓶頸。所以研究我國農(nóng)村金融的發(fā)展,就具有重大的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。 農(nóng)戶是農(nóng)村的經(jīng)濟主體,隨著農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,農(nóng)戶產(chǎn)生了大量的金融需求。我國農(nóng)村金融市場包括正規(guī)金融機構(gòu)和非正規(guī)金融機構(gòu),郵儲以前只存不貸,貸款業(yè)務(wù)起步比較晚,目前來看,農(nóng)信社是農(nóng)戶向正規(guī)金融機構(gòu)貸款的主力軍,但由于農(nóng)信社體制的弊端,導致其為農(nóng)戶提供的金融服務(wù)有限,不能很好的滿足農(nóng)戶的金融需求,農(nóng)戶的融資行為受到嚴重抑制。因而,農(nóng)戶更偏好于民間借貸,為了滿足生產(chǎn)、生活資金需求,農(nóng)戶更多的借助于農(nóng)村內(nèi)部自發(fā)產(chǎn)生的金融形式。農(nóng)戶借貸是農(nóng)村金融的重點和難點,本文試圖通過對農(nóng)戶借貸行為的研究,分析農(nóng)戶借貸行為特征進而對農(nóng)戶金融需求影響因素實證分析,從而提出符合我國實際的農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展的政策建議。 目前國內(nèi)外學者對于農(nóng)村金融的研究非常多,但均以規(guī)范分析為主,研究內(nèi)容主要是從宏觀層面探討目前我國農(nóng)村金融存在的問題和解決方案,而從微觀層而,特別是從農(nóng)戶借貸需求的角度運用微觀數(shù)據(jù)進行實證研究的則不多。因此,本文試圖以農(nóng)戶借貸行為作為切入點,全面、準確地分析了農(nóng)戶的金融需求狀況并揭示了其影響因素,對于改善農(nóng)村金融體系具有一定的促進作用。 本文以農(nóng)戶借貸行為為基本研究對象,結(jié)合農(nóng)戶借貸問卷調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),分析了農(nóng)戶特征及金融需求情況,并用Probit模型和Logit模型分別研究了農(nóng)戶金融需求的影響因素。分析表明：我國農(nóng)戶具有廣泛的金融需求,雖然農(nóng)信社是農(nóng)戶愿意向正規(guī)金融機構(gòu)貸款的首選機構(gòu),但是從正規(guī)金融機構(gòu)獲得貸款的比例較低,農(nóng)戶更偏好于民間借貸。我國農(nóng)村金融市場仍然存在著嚴重的信貸約束,供給型信貸約束與需求型信貸約束并存,而且農(nóng)戶受到需求型信貸約束明顯比供給型信貸約束程度深。我國農(nóng)戶的基本條件限制了農(nóng)戶金融借貸資金的額度和期限,農(nóng)戶金融需求具有“短小”的特點,農(nóng)信社開展的小額信貸將金在很大程度上幫助農(nóng)民擺脫資金困境,有力地支持農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。農(nóng)戶貸款的原因直接反映在其貸款用途上,貸款用途又能反映農(nóng)戶的資金需求強度,我國農(nóng)戶信貸資金用于消費的比重明顯高于用于生產(chǎn)的比重,這和眾多已有的研究結(jié)論是相吻合的。本文運用Stata軟件對計量模型中家庭常住人口、學生人數(shù)、男性人數(shù)、外出務(wù)工人數(shù)、勞動力平均年齡、勞動力最高受教育程度、家庭經(jīng)營的耕地面積、家庭收入、家庭收入來源、小額信貸、信用評級、正規(guī)金融機構(gòu)業(yè)務(wù)網(wǎng)點和民間金融機構(gòu)等變量進行了回歸,對于Probit和Logit模型回歸結(jié)果,對比統(tǒng)一得出對農(nóng)戶金融需求具有顯著性影響的因素,其中男性人數(shù)、在校學生人數(shù)、耕地面積、農(nóng)業(yè)收入來源、信用評級、民間金融等因素對農(nóng)戶金融需求具有正向的顯著影響,而家庭總收入、非農(nóng)行業(yè)、正規(guī)金融機構(gòu)網(wǎng)點等對農(nóng)戶金融需求具有顯著的負向影響,對于所作研究進行分析總結(jié),同時根據(jù)分析結(jié)果和所得結(jié)論從國家政策、金融機構(gòu)、農(nóng)戶自身三個層面提出相應(yīng)的政策建議,從而促進和完善我國農(nóng)村金融體系的發(fā)展,更進一步發(fā)揮農(nóng)村金融體系在服務(wù)“三農(nóng)”等方面的作用。 本文共分六章,第一章是前言,主要介紹本文的選題背景、研究目的及意義、研究思路、研究方法、研究框架以及可能的創(chuàng)新點和不足之處,試圖讓讀者對本文的研究有一個宏觀的了解。 第二章主要介紹了國內(nèi)外學者對農(nóng)村金融的研究動態(tài),包括關(guān)于農(nóng)戶經(jīng)濟行為的一些理論、農(nóng)戶信貸需求相關(guān)方面的研究文獻,這些文獻的研究對本文的選題和研究思路有很大的啟示,也對本人了解農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展歷史及現(xiàn)狀有了宏觀的認識。 第三章主要是對農(nóng)戶特征與金融需求關(guān)系的描述性統(tǒng)計分析,通過對調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù)進行初步分析,可能影響農(nóng)戶金融需求的因素包括：家庭常住人口、在校學生、農(nóng)戶年齡、農(nóng)戶文化程度、農(nóng)戶從事的經(jīng)濟活動類型、農(nóng)戶收入水平以及收入來源。 第四章主要是對農(nóng)戶金融需求特征進行分析,運用描述性統(tǒng)計方法分析了農(nóng)戶的金融需求情況。 第五章是實證研究部分,本文把“金融需求”作為因變量,對于第三章和第四章分析的可能影響農(nóng)戶金融需求的因素作為控制變量,運用Stata軟件對Probit模型和Logit模型分別回歸,對比統(tǒng)一得出對農(nóng)戶金融需求具有顯著性影響的因素,并對計量結(jié)果進行分析。 第六章為結(jié)論和建議,總結(jié)了本文的研究結(jié)論,并針對全文的研究結(jié)論對現(xiàn)有農(nóng)村金融的發(fā)展提出一些具體的政策建議,希望有所幫助。 本文的主要觀點是：我國所有有關(guān)農(nóng)村金融的制度創(chuàng)新都應(yīng)考慮農(nóng)戶自身特點及其行為特征,雖然我國農(nóng)村金融體系處于不斷的改革和發(fā)展中,但是依舊存在著許多問題,這就意味著對我國農(nóng)戶金融需求影響因素的研究具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。在回顧前人相關(guān)文獻的基礎(chǔ)上,本文以農(nóng)戶行為作為出發(fā)點,運用統(tǒng)計性描述分析農(nóng)戶的特征及金融需求情況,通過實證研究分析影響農(nóng)戶金融需求的因素,并提出促進和完善我國農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展的相關(guān)政策建議,從而更進一步發(fā)揮農(nóng)村金融體系在服務(wù)“三農(nóng)”等方面的作用。 本文可能的創(chuàng)新之處包括以下幾方面： 1.以實際調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)為依據(jù),在大樣本下進行實證分析。本文所用數(shù)據(jù)來源于對2006年全國10個省20040個農(nóng)戶進行的農(nóng)戶金融需求調(diào)查�？v觀眾多研究農(nóng)戶借貸行為、農(nóng)村金融體系的文獻,僅有少數(shù)學者(如：李銳、李寧輝(2004)；金燁、李宏彬(2009)；錢水土、陸金(2008)；何廣文(1999)等)以實際調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)為依據(jù)進行實證分析,多數(shù)學者僅停留在理論分析或者采用宏觀數(shù)據(jù)進行分析的層面。另外,雖然有學者也是采用農(nóng)村金融的調(diào)查問卷進行分析研究,但是,無論從其調(diào)查地區(qū)的覆蓋率還是樣本數(shù)量來說都遠遠不及本文。 2.更加準確地描述農(nóng)戶的特征及融資行為。本文運用描述性統(tǒng)計分析了農(nóng)戶特征與金融需求的關(guān)系、融資渠道的選擇、融資的數(shù)量和期限、借款用途等等。通過對各個變量詳盡的分析更加準確地描述了農(nóng)戶的融資行為,讓讀者對農(nóng)戶融資特征有一個更加直觀的印象。 3.運用Stata軟件分別對Probit模型和Logit模型進行回歸,對比統(tǒng)一得出對農(nóng)戶金融需求的顯著性影響因素。
[Abstract]:The construction of the socialist "harmonious society" can not be separated from the construction of the new countryside without the development of the rural economy. Since 2008, the development of our country's rural economy has shown two new characteristics: first, the party's the third Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee convening, the central Committee of the Communist Party of China on several major issues of promoting the reform and development of rural villages, the plenary session < Decision > focuses on the problem of promoting rural reform and development. The state has increased its investment in rural areas, carried out a large number of supporting agriculture and benefiting farmers' policies, which greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of farmers. Two, the global financial crisis has also caused considerable impact on the economic development of our country. The real economy has been strongly impacted by the real economy and coastal areas. The bankruptcy and bankruptcy of a large number of enterprises in the region have led to the return of migrant workers, and the prices of agricultural products have been reduced gradually. Nowadays, the problem of "three rural" is always the key and difficult point of government work. However, the current rural financial system can not meet the needs of the development of the rural economy, and the existing rural financial system can not meet the rural areas. The financing demand of the economic subject, the lack of financial in the rural areas has become the bottleneck of the rural economic development. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the development of rural finance in China.
Farmers are the economic main body of rural areas. With the development of rural economy, farmers have produced a large number of financial needs. The rural financial market in China includes regular financial institutions and informal financial institutions. The postal storage is not used before, and the loan business started relatively late. At present, the rural credit cooperatives are the main force of farmers' loans to the regular financial institutions, but the rural credit cooperatives are the main force of the loans to the regular financial institutions. The malpractice of the system of rural credit cooperatives leads to the limited financial services provided by the farmers, which can not meet the financial needs of the farmers well, and the financing behavior of the farmers is severely restrained. Therefore, the farmers prefer to borrow from the folk. In order to meet the demand of production and living funds, the farmers are more able to use the financial forms spontaneously produced within the rural areas. The loan of peasant households is the key and difficult point of rural finance. This paper tries to make an empirical analysis of the factors affecting the financial demand of farmers through the study of the behavior of farmers' borrowing and lending, so as to put forward the policy suggestions for the development of rural finance in accordance with the actual situation of our country.
At present, scholars at home and abroad have a lot of research on rural finance, but they are mainly based on normative analysis. The main research content is to discuss the existing problems and solutions of rural finance in China from the macro level. This paper attempts to take the behavior of farmers' lending as a breakthrough point, comprehensively and accurately analyzes the financial demand of farmers and reveals its influencing factors, which has a certain role in improving the rural financial system.
This paper, taking the behavior of farmers' borrowing and lending as the basic research object, combined with the survey data of farmers' borrowing and lending, analyzed the characteristics of farmers and the financial demand, and studied the influence factors of farmers' financial demand with Probit model and Logit model respectively. The loan of regular financial institutions is the first choice, but the proportion of loans obtained from the regular financial institutions is low, and the farmers prefer the private lending. There are still serious credit constraints in the rural financial market in China. The supply type credit constraints coexist with the demand type credit constraints, and the farmers' demand based credit constraints are obviously more than the supply type credit. The basic conditions of the loans are limited. The basic conditions of the farmers in our country restrict the amount and duration of the financial lending funds of the farmers. The farmers' financial demand has the characteristics of "short". The micro credit carried out by the rural credit cooperatives will help farmers to get rid of the financial difficulties to a great extent and strongly support the development of the rural economy. The reasons for the farmers' loans are directly reflected. In the use of the loan, the use of the loan can reflect the intensity of the farmers' capital demand, and the proportion of the credit funds used in the consumption is obviously higher than that used in the production. This is in agreement with many existing research conclusions. This paper uses the Stata software to make the household permanent population, the number of students, the number of men, and the outgoing affairs in the measurement model. The number of workers, the average age of the labor force, the highest education level of the labor force, the area of the cultivated land, the family income, the source of family income, the micro credit, the credit rating, the business outlets of the regular financial institutions and the non-governmental financial institutions were regressive. For the regression results of the Probit and the Logit models, the farmers' finance was compared and unified. The factors such as the number of men, the number of students in school, the area of cultivated land, the source of agricultural income, the credit rating and the folk finance have a positive and significant influence on the financial demand of farmers, while the total family income, non-agricultural industry and the formal financial network network have a significant negative impact on the financial demand of farmers. On the basis of the analysis and summary of the research, according to the results of the analysis and the conclusions from the three aspects of the national policy, financial institutions and farmers themselves, the corresponding policy proposals are put forward to promote and improve the development of the rural financial system in China, and further play the role of the rural financial system in serving "three rural" and so on.
This article is divided into six chapters. The first chapter is the preface. It mainly introduces the background of the topic, the purpose and significance of the research, the research ideas, the research methods, the research framework and the possible innovation points and shortcomings, trying to make the readers have a macro understanding of this study.
The second chapter mainly introduces the research trends of the domestic and foreign scholars on rural finance, including some theories about farmers' economic behavior, and the literature on the related aspects of farmers' credit demand. The research of these literature has great inspiration to the topic and research ideas of this article, and also has a macro understanding of the history and status of rural financial development. Understanding.
The third chapter is mainly a descriptive statistical analysis of the relationship between farmers' characteristics and financial needs. Through the preliminary analysis of the survey data, the factors that may affect the farmers' financial demand include the family resident population, the school students, the farmers' age, the peasant household's cultural degree, the type of economic activities that the farmers engage in, the income level and the income of the farmers. Source.
The fourth chapter mainly analyzes the characteristics of farmers' financial demand, and applies descriptive statistics to analyze the financial needs of farmers.
The fifth chapter is an empirical study. This paper takes "financial demand" as a dependent variable, as a control variable for the factors that may affect farmers' financial demand in the third and fourth chapters, and uses Stata software to return to the Probit model and the Logit model respectively, and compares the factors that have significant influence on the financial demand of farmers. And the measurement results are analyzed.
The sixth chapter is the conclusion and suggestion, summarizes the conclusions of this study, and puts forward some specific policy suggestions for the development of rural finance in the full text, hoping to help.
The main point of this paper is that all the institutional innovations related to rural finance in China should take into account the characteristics of farmers themselves and their behavior characteristics. Although the rural financial system in China is in constant reform and development, there are still many problems, which means that the research on the factors affecting the financial demand of farmers in China is of great importance. On the basis of reviewing the relevant literature of the predecessors, this paper, taking the behavior of farmers as the starting point, uses a statistical description to analyze the characteristics of farmers and the financial demand, analyses the factors that affect the financial demand of farmers through empirical research, and puts forward some relevant policy suggestions to promote and improve the financial development of agricultural villages in China, so as to make more progress. We should give full play to the role of the rural financial system in serving the "three rural issues".
The possible innovations of this paper include the following aspects:
1. based on the actual survey data, the empirical analysis is carried out under the large sample. The data used in this paper is derived from the survey of farmers' financial needs of 20040 farmers in 10 provinces in 2006. A large number of studies on the behavior of farmers' lending and the literature of the rural financial system have only a few scholars (such as Li Rui, Li Ninghui (2004); Jin Ye, Li Hongbin (2) " 009): Qian and water, Lu Jin (2008); He Guangwen (1999), etc. based on the actual survey data for empirical analysis, most scholars only stay in the theoretical analysis or the use of macro data analysis level. In addition, although some scholars also use the rural financial questionnaire to analyze, however, no matter from the area of its investigation. Cover rate or sample size is far less than this article.
2. a more accurate description of the characteristics and financing behavior of farmers. This paper uses descriptive statistics to analyze the relationship between farmers' characteristics and financial needs, the choice of financing channels, the number and duration of financing, the use of loans and so on. Through detailed analysis of the various variables, the financing behavior of farmers is described more accurately, and the readers can finance the farmers. Features have a more intuitive impression.
3. use Stata software to regression Probit model and Logit model respectively, and draw a significant correlation factor for farmers' financial needs.

【學位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.35;F224

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