發(fā)布時間：2018-05-23 19:37

  本文選題：牛市 + 熊市��； 參考：《復旦大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：在美國,上市公司的兼并收購活動已經(jīng)有悠久的歷史,外國學者也提供了許多有意義的研究和結(jié)論。在我國,兼并收購的歷史還不長,不過已經(jīng)有許多學者對兼并收購的績效進行了深入的研究,也得到了許多有意義的結(jié)論。 與之前的國內(nèi)文獻不同,本文試圖從另外一個視角來研究兼并收購的績效問題,研究牛市下兼并收購和熊市下兼并收購的績效的差異。作者發(fā)現(xiàn)牛市下的兼并收購短期績效顯著優(yōu)于熊市下的兼并收購,但是,長期績效顯著劣于熊市下進行的并購。這個結(jié)果在作者控制了其他可能影響兼并收購績效的變量之后,依然顯著,而且顯著性有所提高。 作者嘗試依據(jù)牛熊市下,投資者對于并購規(guī)模的敏感程度,從投資者情緒的角度解釋短期并購績效差異,發(fā)現(xiàn)牛熊市下短期并購績效的差異主要是由投資者的情緒和過度反應導致的。同時,作者嘗試用時機選擇理論、羊群效應理論和托賓Q理論來解釋牛熊市長期并購績效的差異,發(fā)現(xiàn)托賓Q理論能夠更好地解釋這一現(xiàn)象。 與此同時,作者在對其他變量的研究中發(fā)現(xiàn),與西方市場不同,中國投資者對于支付方式等交易特征變量并沒有表現(xiàn)出太多的關注,這主要與我國并購市場的監(jiān)管以及股票發(fā)行制度有關。公司自由現(xiàn)金流比率和掏空與支持動機對短期績效有一定的解釋力度,財務杠桿比率和掏空與支持動機對長期績效差異有解釋意義。這個結(jié)果與西方文獻的研究基本一致。公司估值指標,如市凈率、市值、前一年增長率等,對于并購的長短期績效解釋力度都有限。
[Abstract]:In the United States, the merger and acquisition of listed companies has a long history, foreign scholars have also provided a lot of meaningful research and conclusions. In China, the history of mergers and acquisitions is not long, but many scholars have done in-depth research on the performance of mergers and acquisitions, and got many meaningful conclusions. Different from previous domestic literature, this paper attempts to study the performance of mergers and acquisitions from another perspective, and to study the differences between the performance of mergers and acquisitions in bull markets and those in bear markets. The author finds that the short-term performance of merger and acquisition in bull market is significantly better than that in bear market, but the long-term performance is significantly worse than that in bear market. After controlling for other variables that may affect the performance of mergers and acquisitions, the results are still significant and significantly improved. According to the sensitivity of investors to M & A scale in bull bear market, the author tries to explain the difference of short-term M & A performance from the angle of investor sentiment. It is found that the difference of short-term M & A performance in bull bear market is mainly caused by investor sentiment and overreaction. At the same time, the author tries to explain the difference of long-term M & A performance of bull bear market with timing theory, herding theory and Tobin Q theory, and finds that Tobin Q theory can better explain this phenomenon. At the same time, in the study of other variables, the author found that, unlike in the western markets, Chinese investors did not pay much attention to the transaction characteristic variables, such as payment methods. This is mainly related to the regulation of the M & A market and the stock issue system in China. The ratio of free cash flow and tunneling and supporting motivation can explain the short-term performance to some extent, while the financial leverage ratio and tunneling and supporting motivation can explain the difference of long-term performance. This result is basically consistent with the western literature. Corporate valuation indicators, such as price-to-book ratio, market value, the previous year's growth rate and so on, have limited long-term and short-term performance explanations for mergers and acquisitions.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.51

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 朱紅軍,汪輝;并購的長期財富效應——經(jīng)驗分析結(jié)果與協(xié)同效應解釋[J];財經(jīng)研究;2005年09期

2 余光,楊榮;企業(yè)購并股價效應的理論分析和實證分析[J];當代財經(jīng);2000年07期

3 余力,劉英;中國上市公司并購績效的實證分析[J];當代經(jīng)濟科學;2004年04期

4 朱滔;;上市公司并購的短期和長期股價表現(xiàn)[J];當代經(jīng)濟科學;2006年03期

5 李善民;朱滔;;多元化并購能給股東創(chuàng)造價值嗎?——兼論影響多元化并購長期績效的因素[J];管理世界;2006年03期

6 高見,陳歆瑋;中國證券市場資產(chǎn)重組效應分析[J];經(jīng)濟科學;2000年01期

7 陸國慶;中國上市公司資產(chǎn)重組的產(chǎn)業(yè)效應分析——對1999年度滬市的實證分析[J];經(jīng)濟科學;2001年01期

8 李青原;王永海;;資產(chǎn)專用性、資產(chǎn)一體化與公司并購績效的實證研究[J];經(jīng)濟評論;2007年02期

9 吳世農(nóng);我國證券市場效率的分析[J];經(jīng)濟研究;1996年04期

10 陳信元,張?zhí)镉?資產(chǎn)重組的市場反應——1997 年滬市資產(chǎn)重組實證分析[J];經(jīng)濟研究;1999年09期

，

本文編號：1926067