發(fā)布時間：2018-05-26 20:28

  本文選題：對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu) + OFDI��； 參考：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：20世紀(jì)80年代,特別是90年代以來,經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化已表現(xiàn)出不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的發(fā)展態(tài)勢。進(jìn)行國際貿(mào)易實現(xiàn)商品的流動,以及開展對外直接投資實現(xiàn)生產(chǎn)要素的流動,是一個經(jīng)濟(jì)體融入經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的重要途徑,二者之間存在著什么樣的作用機(jī)制以及如何協(xié)調(diào)二者的發(fā)展以促進(jìn)國家或地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展就成為了政府和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界亟待研究的重要課題,具有十分重要的理論意義和現(xiàn)實意義。 本文通過對國內(nèi)外有關(guān)對外貿(mào)易與對外直接投資關(guān)系的相關(guān)研究進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)梳理發(fā)現(xiàn),關(guān)于對外貿(mào)易對OFDI影響的研究往往只注重對外貿(mào)易規(guī)模方面,忽略了對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)方面的研究。因此,本文從我國對外直接投資動因的視角出發(fā)對貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)影響OFDI的內(nèi)在機(jī)制進(jìn)行了理論分析,然后運用我國對外貿(mào)易與對外直接投資數(shù)據(jù),在構(gòu)建相應(yīng)的貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)指標(biāo)基礎(chǔ)上,采用動態(tài)面板模型,使用GMM估計方法對我國對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)對OFDI的影響以及影響OFDI的其他因素進(jìn)行了實證考察,從而為政府決策者提供了有關(guān)制定貿(mào)易政策和“走出去”戰(zhàn)略的理論和經(jīng)驗依據(jù)。通過研究,本文得到了一下主要結(jié)論： 第一,盡管從總體上來說,我國對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)呈現(xiàn)出了良好的發(fā)展趨勢,但是,現(xiàn)階段的對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)還是存在著貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu)層次不高和貿(mào)易區(qū)域結(jié)構(gòu)過度集中化等諸多矛盾和問題；我國對外直接投資發(fā)展迅猛,但規(guī)模與傳統(tǒng)對外投資大國差距仍然較大；行業(yè)分布較廣泛,但重點突出；并且主要流向亞洲和拉丁美洲,洲際分布比較集中；從發(fā)展基本趨勢來看,我國對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與對外直接投資之間存在緊密的聯(lián)系。 第二,對我國與發(fā)達(dá)國家組的實證分析表明：工業(yè)制成品出口比重和貿(mào)易結(jié)合度指數(shù)對我國在發(fā)達(dá)國家的直接投資有顯著的促進(jìn)作用,而總產(chǎn)品出口競爭力卻會產(chǎn)生抑制作用；初級產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口比重和集中度以及工業(yè)制成品出口集中度和競爭力對OFDI的影響并不顯著。不同的是,對我國與發(fā)展中國家組的分析顯示：制成品出口競爭力與我國在發(fā)展中國家的直接投資顯著正相關(guān),而初級產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口集中度和貿(mào)易結(jié)合度指數(shù)卻為顯著負(fù)相關(guān)；我國制成品出口比重和總產(chǎn)品出口競爭力對OFDI沒有顯著的影響。 第三,為促進(jìn)我國企業(yè)對外直接投資的發(fā)展,企業(yè)應(yīng)選擇正確的對外投資區(qū)位戰(zhàn)略；擴(kuò)大對發(fā)達(dá)國家制成品的出口,進(jìn)而帶動和促進(jìn)我國對發(fā)達(dá)國家的投資；加大我國具有比較優(yōu)勢的制造業(yè)對發(fā)展中國家的直接投資,這樣不僅可以解決國內(nèi)市場這些產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)品供過于求的問題,而且還可以集中資源發(fā)展國內(nèi)優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)業(yè),促進(jìn)國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級。
[Abstract]:Since the 1980's, especially since 1990's, economic globalization has shown an irreversible development trend. The flow of goods through international trade and the flow of factors of production through outward direct investment are important ways for an economy to integrate into economic globalization, What kind of mechanism exists between the two and how to coordinate their development to promote the economic development of the country or region has become an important subject to be urgently studied by the government and the economic circles, which has very important theoretical and practical significance. This paper makes a systematic study on the relationship between foreign trade and foreign direct investment, and finds that the research on the impact of foreign trade on OFDI is usually focused on the scale of foreign trade. The research on the structure of foreign trade has been neglected. Therefore, from the perspective of the motivation of China's foreign direct investment, this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the internal mechanism of the influence of trade structure on OFDI, and then applies the data of China's foreign trade and foreign direct investment. On the basis of constructing corresponding trade structure index, using dynamic panel model and GMM estimation method, this paper makes an empirical study on the influence of China's foreign trade structure on OFDI and other factors affecting OFDI. Therefore, it provides the theoretical and empirical basis for government policy makers to formulate trade policy and "go out" strategy. The main conclusions are as follows: First, although on the whole, China's foreign trade structure has shown a good trend of development, At the present stage, there are still many contradictions and problems in the foreign trade structure, such as the low level of the structure of trade commodities and the over-centralization of the regional structure of trade. However, there is still a large gap between the scale and the traditional large countries of outward investment; the industry is widely distributed, but the focus is prominent; and the main flows are to Asia and Latin America, and the intercontinental distribution is relatively concentrated. From the basic trend of development, There is a close relationship between China's foreign trade structure and foreign direct investment. Secondly, the empirical analysis between China and the developed countries shows that: the proportion of manufactured products export and the trade combination index have a significant role in promoting China's direct investment in developed countries, while the total export competitiveness of products will have a restraining effect; The import proportion and concentration of primary products and the export concentration and competitiveness of manufactured goods have little effect on OFDI. The analysis of China and developing countries shows that the competitiveness of manufactured goods exports is significantly positively correlated with China's direct investment in developing countries, while the primary commodity import concentration and trade combination index are significantly negative correlation; The proportion of manufactured goods and the competitiveness of total exports have no significant effect on OFDI. Third, in order to promote the development of foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises, enterprises should choose the correct location strategy of foreign investment, expand the export of manufactured goods to developed countries, and then promote and promote the investment of our country in developed countries. By increasing direct investment in developing countries by manufacturing industries with comparative advantages, China can not only solve the problem of oversupply of these industrial products in the domestic market, but also concentrate resources to develop domestic superior industries. To promote the optimization and upgrading of domestic industrial structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F752;F832.6

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