發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-26 23:39

  本文選題：國家風(fēng)險(xiǎn) + 對(duì)外直接投資�。� 參考：《天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：“走出去”戰(zhàn)略的實(shí)施已超過十個(gè)年頭,十年來,中國對(duì)外直接投資(FDI)總量節(jié)節(jié)攀升,在國際市場(chǎng)上正逐漸由配角向主角轉(zhuǎn)變。在經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,拓展海外市場(chǎng),尋求穩(wěn)定可靠的能源供應(yīng),合理使用外匯儲(chǔ)備等多重需求的引導(dǎo)之下,中國的對(duì)外直接投資將在一段時(shí)期內(nèi)將保持持續(xù)增長,但由于國際經(jīng)營環(huán)境的復(fù)雜性和多變性,加之投資經(jīng)驗(yàn)的缺乏,其經(jīng)營業(yè)績和投資收益都不容樂觀。 在對(duì)外直接投資所涉及的各類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中,有一類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是基于東道國主權(quán)行為,或源自東道國經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治環(huán)境的變動(dòng),如國有化、政策變動(dòng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退、主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)、戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)、政變、自然災(zāi)害等,稱之為國家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。國家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不同于企業(yè)的經(jīng)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn),其成因復(fù)雜多樣,依靠企業(yè)自身的力量難以化解,是造成對(duì)外直接投資虧損的最重要原因。因此,對(duì)國家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其對(duì)于對(duì)外直接投資的影響進(jìn)行研究具有非常重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文全面分析了國家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的內(nèi)涵、構(gòu)成要素和表現(xiàn)形式,對(duì)比不同類型的國家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)體系,篩選其中的核心指標(biāo),運(yùn)用回歸模型,以我國對(duì)外直接投資的主要流向國為研究對(duì)象,對(duì)FDI流入量與該國的國家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之間的相關(guān)性進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。得出的結(jié)論為：一國的國家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平與該國FDI凈流入量呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,即國家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平的上升將減少該國所吸引的外國直接投資或引起外資的流出,實(shí)際GDP增長率等六項(xiàng)指標(biāo)的波動(dòng)都是解釋FDI凈流量變化的顯著變量。結(jié)合實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果,文章進(jìn)而為中國企業(yè)如何有效防范對(duì)外直接投資的國家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、提高投資回報(bào)率提出了相關(guān)的建議和對(duì)策。
[Abstract]:The "going out" strategy has been implemented for more than 10 years. In the past ten years, the total amount of China's foreign direct investment (FDI) has been rising, and it is gradually changing from supporting role to leading role in the international market. Guided by the restructuring of the economy, the expansion of overseas markets, the search for a stable and reliable energy supply and the rational use of foreign exchange reserves and other multiple demands, China's foreign direct investment will continue to grow for a period of time. However, due to the complexity and variability of the international business environment and the lack of investment experience, its operating performance and investment returns are not optimistic. Among the types of risks involved in OFDI, one is based on the sovereign behaviour of the host country, or arising from changes in the host country's economic and political environment, such as nationalization, policy change, economic recession, sovereign debt crisis, war, Coups, natural disasters, etc., are called national risks. The national risk is different from the management risk of the enterprise, its cause is complex and diverse, relying on the strength of the enterprise itself is difficult to resolve, which is the most important reason for the loss of foreign direct investment. Therefore, the study of national risk and its impact on FDI is of great practical significance. This paper comprehensively analyzes the connotation, elements and forms of national risk, compares different types of national risk assessment systems, selects the core indicators, and applies regression model. This paper analyzes the correlation between FDI inflow and national risk of China's foreign direct investment (OFDI). The conclusion is that the national risk level of a country is negatively correlated with the net inflow of FDI, that is, the increase of the national risk level will reduce the foreign direct investment that the country attracts or cause the outflow of foreign capital. The fluctuation of six indexes, such as real GDP growth rate, is a significant variable to explain the change of FDI net flow. Combined with the results of empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some suggestions and countermeasures for Chinese enterprises to effectively guard against the national risks of FDI and to improve the rate of return on investment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6

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本文編號(hào)：1939452