發(fā)布時間：2018-05-29 11:43

  本文選題：時間序列 + 醫(yī)保��； 參考：《中國衛(wèi)生事業(yè)管理》2017年04期

【摘要】：目的:探討時間序列模型在預(yù)測醫(yī)�？傤~中的可行性。方法:以某醫(yī)院2010年~2014年發(fā)生的D市參保人實際醫(yī)保記賬費用數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),對D市下達總額控制數(shù)據(jù)資料進行追蹤研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)其周期性變化規(guī)律,運用SPSS19.0專家建模器建立時間序列模型,對2015年某醫(yī)院發(fā)生記賬費用進行預(yù)測,并用實際發(fā)生記賬費用進行驗證。結(jié)果:研究表明,時間序列模型測算的預(yù)測擬合值與觀測值總體相差3.37%,與實際情況基本吻合。結(jié)論:時間序列模型能為醫(yī)院在醫(yī)保總額控制管理中的決策與應(yīng)用提供參考依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Objective: to explore the feasibility of time series model in predicting the total amount of medical insurance. Methods: based on the actual medical insurance charge data of the insured in a hospital from 2010 to 2014, the data of total amount control in D city were tracked and studied, and the regularity of periodic change was found. A time series model was established by using SPSS19.0 expert modeler to predict the charge of accounting in a hospital in 2015. Results: the results show that the predicted fitting value of the time series model is 3.37 different from the observed value, which is basically consistent with the actual situation. Conclusion: the time series model can provide reference for the decision-making and application of medical insurance total control management.
【作者單位】： 南方醫(yī)科大學南方醫(yī)院;南方醫(yī)科大學衛(wèi)生管理學院;
【基金】：廣東省高校哲學社科重點實驗室項目“公共衛(wèi)生政策研究與評價重點實驗室”(編號:2015WSYS0010)
【分類號】：F842.684;R197.1

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1 汪宏晶;林曦晨;湯洪秀;尹平;;多元時間序列模型及其應(yīng)用[A];2011年中國衛(wèi)生統(tǒng)計學年會會議論文集[C];2011年

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