發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-29 11:43

  本文選題：時(shí)間序列 + 醫(yī)保　； 參考：《中國(guó)衛(wèi)生事業(yè)管理》2017年04期

【摘要】：目的:探討時(shí)間序列模型在預(yù)測(cè)醫(yī)�？傤~中的可行性。方法:以某醫(yī)院2010年~2014年發(fā)生的D市參保人實(shí)際醫(yī)保記賬費(fèi)用數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),對(duì)D市下達(dá)總額控制數(shù)據(jù)資料進(jìn)行追蹤研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)其周期性變化規(guī)律,運(yùn)用SPSS19.0專家建模器建立時(shí)間序列模型,對(duì)2015年某醫(yī)院發(fā)生記賬費(fèi)用進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),并用實(shí)際發(fā)生記賬費(fèi)用進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。結(jié)果:研究表明,時(shí)間序列模型測(cè)算的預(yù)測(cè)擬合值與觀測(cè)值總體相差3.37%,與實(shí)際情況基本吻合。結(jié)論:時(shí)間序列模型能為醫(yī)院在醫(yī)�？傤~控制管理中的決策與應(yīng)用提供參考依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Objective: to explore the feasibility of time series model in predicting the total amount of medical insurance. Methods: based on the actual medical insurance charge data of the insured in a hospital from 2010 to 2014, the data of total amount control in D city were tracked and studied, and the regularity of periodic change was found. A time series model was established by using SPSS19.0 expert modeler to predict the charge of accounting in a hospital in 2015. Results: the results show that the predicted fitting value of the time series model is 3.37 different from the observed value, which is basically consistent with the actual situation. Conclusion: the time series model can provide reference for the decision-making and application of medical insurance total control management.
【作者單位】： 南方醫(yī)科大學(xué)南方醫(yī)院;南方醫(yī)科大學(xué)衛(wèi)生管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：廣東省高校哲學(xué)社科重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室項(xiàng)目“公共衛(wèi)生政策研究與評(píng)價(jià)重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室”(編號(hào):2015WSYS0010)
【分類號(hào)】：F842.684;R197.1

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1 汪宏晶;林曦晨;湯洪秀;尹平;;多元時(shí)間序列模型及其應(yīng)用[A];2011年中國(guó)衛(wèi)生統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)年會(huì)會(huì)議論文集[C];2011年

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