發(fā)布時間：2018-05-31 10:20

  本文選題：企業(yè)年金 + 繳費確定型��； 參考：《大連理工大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：2004年起施行的《企業(yè)年金試行辦法》和《企業(yè)年金基金管理試行辦法》至今已有8個年頭。其中,《企業(yè)年金基金管理試行辦法》在2011年重新修訂,4部委聯(lián)合審議通過《企業(yè)年金基金管理辦法》。新辦法不僅對企業(yè)年金基金運營的責任相關方作了更嚴格的規(guī)定,在明確繳費確定型計劃制度的基礎上,細化基金投資權限,規(guī)定利益分配及費用,規(guī)范計劃管理和信息披露,強調(diào)對法定責任人的監(jiān)督檢查。而且它的出臺正值美國金融危機后越演越烈的歐債危機拖累全球經(jīng)濟之際。 引起主權債務危機的一個重要原因是國家高福利政策沒有建立在可持續(xù)的財政政策之上。對此,以鄭秉文為代表的學者早在美國金融危機之前就已提出待遇確定型計劃的福利制度的財務風險及不可持續(xù)性。但金融危機爆發(fā)之后,以趙光毅為代表的學者發(fā)現(xiàn)在實踐中繳費確定型計劃可能存在的更為嚴重的資產(chǎn)縮水問題,將導致企業(yè)年金作為我國社會養(yǎng)老保障體系第二支柱的作用減弱。本文在綜合文獻資料,分析企業(yè)年金計劃模式原理的基礎上,深入對比計劃模式的相對優(yōu)缺,探明計劃模式的本質(zhì)特征,從而提出堅持完善我國企業(yè)年金個人賬戶管理制度的必要性。 為了配套社會主義市場經(jīng)濟改革,利率市場化改革不斷推進,如何準確預測固定收益類資產(chǎn)的實際利率,進而實現(xiàn)企業(yè)年金基金保值增值目標成為年金管理者面臨的關鍵問題。本文基于企業(yè)年金管理目標,分析了我國現(xiàn)行的繳費確定型計劃的給付模型。通過引入自回歸分布滯后利率模型,對近15年間的五年期存款基準利率進行了實證研究,利用利率——給付模型預測了企業(yè)年金計劃的未來給付及替代率。計算結(jié)果表明：預測的實際利率能有效擬合市場真實利率,在名義利率可變的條件下,預期替代率的準確性顯著提高。 本文在企業(yè)年金計劃模式的優(yōu)化設計上提供了利率技術的改進措施。同樣具實際意義的是其為企業(yè)年金管理者制定決策提供參考依據(jù)。最后本文在此基礎上,為完善我國企業(yè)年金繳費確定型計劃提出了以下四個層面的政策建議：第一,繼續(xù)優(yōu)化計劃模型的關鍵變量；第二,堅持核心籌資模式推進稅收優(yōu)惠政策；第三,鼓勵參與市場投資改善基金績效防范風險；第四,健全法律基礎增強年金的監(jiān)督能力。
[Abstract]:It has been 8 years since 2004 that the enterprise annuity trial measures and the enterprise annuity fund management trial measures have been put into effect. Among them, "enterprise annuity fund management trial measures" in 2011 revised four ministries and commissions to review and adopt the "enterprise pension fund management measures". The new method not only makes stricter regulations on the responsible parties involved in the operation of the enterprise pension fund, but also refines the investment authority of the fund on the basis of defining the definite-plan system of contributions, prescribes the distribution of benefits and expenses, and standardizes the management of the plan and the disclosure of information. Emphasis is placed on the supervision and inspection of the legal responsible persons. And it comes at a time when the growing European debt crisis in the wake of the U.S. financial crisis has dragged down the global economy. An important reason for the sovereign debt crisis is that national welfare policies are not based on sustainable fiscal policies. For this reason, the scholars represented by Zheng Bingwen have put forward the financial risk and unsustainability of the welfare system of the definite treatment plan long before the financial crisis in the United States. However, after the outbreak of the financial crisis, scholars represented by Zhao Guangyi found that in practice there might be a more serious problem of asset shrinkage in defined-fee schemes. It will lead to the weakening of the role of enterprise annuity as the second pillar of social pension security system in China. On the basis of synthesizing the literature and analyzing the principle of enterprise annuity plan mode, this paper makes a deep comparison between the relative advantages and disadvantages of the plan model, and proves the essential characteristics of the plan mode. Therefore, it is necessary to insist on perfecting the personal account management system of enterprise annuity in our country. In order to complete the reform of socialist market economy and promote the reform of market-oriented interest rate, how to accurately predict the real interest rate of fixed income assets and realize the goal of maintaining and increasing the value of enterprise pension funds has become the key problem faced by annuity managers. Based on the objective of enterprise annuity management, this paper analyzes the payment model of the current payment determination plan in China. By introducing the autoregressive distribution lag interest rate model, this paper makes an empirical study on the five-year deposit benchmark interest rate in the recent 15 years, and predicts the future payment and substitution rate of the enterprise annuity plan by using the interest-benefit model. The results show that the predicted real interest rate can fit the real market interest rate effectively and the accuracy of the expected substitution rate is improved significantly under the condition of variable nominal interest rate. This paper provides the improvement measures of interest rate technology in the optimization design of enterprise annuity plan mode. It is also of practical significance to provide reference for enterprise annuity managers to make decisions. Finally, on this basis, this paper put forward the following four levels of policy recommendations to improve the enterprise annuity contribution determination plan: first, continue to optimize the key variables of the plan model; second, Adhere to the core financing model to promote tax preferential policies; third, encourage participation in the market investment to improve fund performance to prevent risks; fourth, improve the legal basis to strengthen the supervision of annuity.
【學位授予單位】：大連理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F842.0;F224

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本文編號：1959276