本文關鍵詞：農產(chǎn)品對外貿易對中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)溫室氣體排放的影響研究，，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

        近年來,貿易與環(huán)境問題日漸成為學術界的熱點。國內外學術界對貿易自由化所產(chǎn)生的環(huán)境后果,一些學者持消極觀點,認為貿易自由化政策的實施將直接導致環(huán)境的惡化；另一些學者則認為盡管貿易自由化在短期內的環(huán)境效應是消極的,但隨著時間的推移,貿易自由化將對環(huán)境產(chǎn)生長期的積極影響。對于中國而言,農產(chǎn)品自由貿易對農業(yè)的總體影響是利大于弊(黃季焜等,2005a；劉宇等,2009；黃季焜等,2005b),促進自由貿易符合中國的國家利益和長遠利益。過去幾十年,中國在推進農產(chǎn)品自由貿易的過程中做出了巨大的努力,在放寬對進出口市場準入的同時,還采取了一系列措施以消減關稅。在1978-2008年間,中國農產(chǎn)品貿易額由1978年的61億美元增加到2008年的992.1億美元,年均增長率為9.7%。然而,在農產(chǎn)品對外貿易取得巨大進展,帶動國內農業(yè)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的同時,農業(yè)作為溫室氣體的排放大戶,中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)所帶來的溫室氣體排放問題也日益引起人們的關注。目前,普遍的共識是中國小麥、玉米、棉花、大豆等土地密集型農產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)已經(jīng)不具備明顯的比較優(yōu)勢,而蔬菜、肉類等勞動密集型農產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)則具備明顯的比較優(yōu)勢(劉劍文,2004；黃季焜等,2005a；黃季焜等,2005b；劉宇等,2009)。表現(xiàn)為小麥、玉米、棉花、大豆等農產(chǎn)品的國內生產(chǎn)規(guī)�？s減,而蔬菜、肉類等農產(chǎn)品的國內生產(chǎn)規(guī)模擴張。由于土地密集型農作物與勞動密集型農作物,以及不同畜產(chǎn)品之間農業(yè)生產(chǎn)過程中的溫室氣體排放量存在很大差異。因此,農產(chǎn)品自由貿易會通過影響中國農產(chǎn)品的對外貿易結構,進而影響國內資源的配置和農業(yè)生產(chǎn)結構的改善(趙慧娥,2005；杜曉君等,1998；黃季焜等,1999),最終影響中國國內農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量。那么,近幾十年來,隨著改革開放不斷深入、貿易規(guī)模不斷擴大,中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量究竟有何變化,變化趨勢如何；農產(chǎn)品對外貿易對中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放的影響機理如何；中國主要農產(chǎn)品進出口貿易的溫室氣體排放效應如何；農產(chǎn)品貿易開放度的變化是否也會顯著影響中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量。對于這些問題的回答,有助于我們認清中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體減排壓力,以及選擇符合我國國情的農業(yè)生產(chǎn)減排和農產(chǎn)品對外貿易戰(zhàn)略,實現(xiàn)中國農產(chǎn)品對外貿易與農業(yè)生態(tài)環(huán)境的和諧、可持續(xù)發(fā)展。因此,本研究具有一定的理論意義和實踐價值。本研究的總體目標是考察農產(chǎn)品對外貿易對中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放的影響。圍繞這一目標,在理論分析農產(chǎn)品對外貿易對中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放的影響機理基礎上,首先,廓清中國農產(chǎn)品進出口貿易格局及結構演變趨勢；其次,根據(jù)IPCC (2006)、FAO (2004)等提供的的溫室氣體排放系數(shù),構建溫室氣體排放量的測度模型,測算全國及分地區(qū)的農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量；再次,借鑒Grossman等(1991)、Chai (2002)和李懷政(2010)的研究方法,實證分析中國農產(chǎn)品進出口貿易的溫室氣體排放效應；最后,通過改進Grossman和Krueger (1995)提出的經(jīng)濟增長與環(huán)境關系的計量模型,引入貿易開放度和農業(yè)環(huán)境變量,基于省際面板數(shù)據(jù),實證分析農產(chǎn)品貿易開放度對中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放的影響。本研究的主要結論如下：1.90年代以來,中國農產(chǎn)品進出口貿易格局及結構發(fā)生了顯著變化。表現(xiàn)為：農產(chǎn)品進出口貿易在商品對外貿易中的地位不斷下降,創(chuàng)匯能力明顯減弱；產(chǎn)品結構顯現(xiàn)出口以蔬菜、水果等勞動密集型農產(chǎn)品為主,進口以棉花、大豆等土地密集型農產(chǎn)品為主的態(tài)勢；進出口市場集中度不斷降低,市場分布日趨合理和多元化；進出口貿易的國內區(qū)域集中度較高；進出口貿易的主體結構向多元化轉變,主體結構日趨合理。2.1991-2008年間,中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量呈遞增趨勢,而且地區(qū)分布不均。具體而言：一是,就種植業(yè)而言,水稻的CH4排放量呈下降趨勢,從1991年的999.50萬噸下降到2008年的931.44萬噸；而同期間的N2O和C02排放量卻逐年升高,N20排放量從1991年的34.67萬噸上升到2008年的48.74萬噸,C02排放量從1991年的4019.48萬噸增加到2008年的7785.87萬噸。二是,畜牧業(yè)CH4和N20排放量均呈先升后降的趨勢。CH4和N2O排放量分別從1991年的765.53萬噸、35.32萬噸上升到2006年的1111.43萬噸、55.93萬噸。此后,它們又分別下降到2008年的900.74萬噸、46.90萬噸。三是,農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放的結構,呈現(xiàn)種植業(yè)所占份額不斷縮減、畜牧業(yè)所占份額不斷遞增的趨勢。四是,農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放的區(qū)域集中度較高,排放的重點區(qū)域呈現(xiàn)向中西部和經(jīng)濟欠發(fā)達地區(qū)集中的趨勢。3.中國主要進出口農產(chǎn)品的溫室氣體排放效應分解結果如下：(1)就結構效應而言,1991-2008年間,由于農產(chǎn)品進出口份額的變化,共減排溫室氣體58.36萬噸C02當量,表明中國農產(chǎn)品對外貿易結構的優(yōu)化呈現(xiàn)顯著的溫室氣體排放負效應。(2)就技術效應而言,由于農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的技術進步速度緩慢,1991-2008年間,中國農產(chǎn)品的出口貿易僅減排溫室氣體0.09萬噸C02當量,表明技術進步的減排效果并不明顯；同時期的中國農產(chǎn)品進口貿易少減排溫室氣體4.55萬噸CO2當量。因此,整體而言,中國農產(chǎn)品對外貿易因技術進步速度緩慢累計少減排溫室氣體4.46萬噸CO2當量,表明中國農產(chǎn)品對外貿易對國內溫室氣體排放呈現(xiàn)顯著的技術正效應。(3)就規(guī)模效應而言,1991-2008年間,中國農產(chǎn)品出口規(guī)模擴大引致的溫室氣體排放量大幅增加,累計增加溫室氣體排放155.78萬噸CO2當量；與此同時,中國農產(chǎn)品進口規(guī)模擴大引致的溫室氣體減排量也大幅增加,累計減排溫室氣體260.76萬噸CO2當量。因此,中國農產(chǎn)品對外貿易的規(guī)模擴大累積凈減排溫室氣體104.98萬噸CO2當量,表明農產(chǎn)品對外貿易對國內溫室氣體排放呈現(xiàn)顯著的規(guī)模負效應。4.農產(chǎn)品貿易開放度對中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的不同溫室氣體排放品種的影響不同。具體而言：(1)農產(chǎn)品出口導向率和進口滲透率對農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的CO2排放量影響顯著。農產(chǎn)品出口導向率的提升會增加國內農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的CO2排放量,而進口滲透率的提升則會減少國內農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的C02排放量；然而,農產(chǎn)品的貿易開放度對中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的CH4和N20排放量的影響并不明顯。(2)中國農村實際收入與國內農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量呈現(xiàn)倒U型關系。表明當農村收入水平較低時,為增加收入水平,農業(yè)生產(chǎn)者會通過提高農業(yè)生產(chǎn)規(guī)模、增加農業(yè)生產(chǎn)要素投入等手段,即增加化肥、農藥等使用量和畜牧業(yè)生產(chǎn)規(guī)模,從而增加農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量；當收入水平達到一定程度時,人們的環(huán)境保護意識會不斷增強,要求政府制定更嚴格的環(huán)境保護措施,促使農業(yè)生產(chǎn)者加速技術革新,采用更低碳、環(huán)保的農業(yè)生產(chǎn)技術,從而有利于減少農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量。本研究的可能創(chuàng)新之處在于：一是,構建了中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量測算模型,并利用相對比較合理的測算指標,初步測算了1991-2008年中國及地區(qū)農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量,為后人的研究提供一定的借鑒和參考；二是,將Grossman等(1991)最初針對工業(yè)品貿易提出的對外貿易的環(huán)境效應引入農產(chǎn)品貿易,并借助其理論分析框架,從理論和實證兩個方面,分析了農產(chǎn)品對外貿易對中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放的影響。本研究的不足在于：一是,受研究條件制約,未能獲得農作物的溫室氣體排放系數(shù)的時間序列數(shù)據(jù),這可能會影響本文測算結果的可信度。二是,由于缺少農作物各品種的碳匯系數(shù),未考慮其通過光合作用所吸收的C02排放量,可能會高估中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量。三是,本文假定我國進口農產(chǎn)品與國內生產(chǎn)的同類農產(chǎn)品的溫室氣體排放強度相同,這也會影響本文的實證結果。

    In recent years, trade and environmental issues are becoming a hot topic in academia. The environmental consequences of trade liberalization in the domestic and international academic, some scholars hold a pessimistic view that the implementation of trade liberalization policies will directly lead to deterioration of the environment; some scholars believe that the environmental effects of trade liberalization in the short term is negative, but over time, trade liberalization to the environment long-term positive impact.For China, the overall impact of free trade of agricultural products on agriculture is better than harm (J. k Huang et al,2005a; Liu Y et al,2009; J. k Huang et al,2005b), promote free trade in line with China’s national interests and long-term interests. In the past few decades, China has made tremendous efforts in the process of promoting free trade of agricultural products, not only in relaxation of the import and export market access, but also adopted a series of measures to mitigate the tariff. During1978-2008, China’s agricultural trade has increased from$6.1billion in1978to$99.21billion in2008, and the average annual growth rate is9.7%. However, made great progress in agricultural foreign trade, and promoted development of the domestic agricultural economy, at the same time, agriculture as the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, greenhouse gas emissions from the Chinese agricultural production brought about a cause for concern increasingly.At present, the general consensus is the production of Chinese wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans and other land-intensive agricultural products didn’t have a clear comparative advantage, while the production of vegetables, meat and other labor-intensive agricultural products are with a clear comparative advantage (J. w Liu,2004; J. k Huang et al,2005a; J. k Huang et al,2005b; Liu Y, et al,2009). Performance of reducing the domestic production scale of wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans and other agricultural products, expansion of domestic production scale of vegetables, meat and other agricultural products. Due to greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural production process is very different between land-intensive crops and labor-intensive crops, and among of livestock products. Thus, free trade of agricultural products will affect the foreign trade structure of China’s agricultural products, and thus affect the domestic resource configuration and the structure of agricultural production to improve (H. E Zhao,2005; X. J Du et al,1998; J. k Huang et al,1999), and ultimately impact the greenhouse gas emissions of domestic agricultural production in China. So, in recent decades, with deepening of reform and opening up, and trade have been expanding, what changes and trends of the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China. What affect mechanism of the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural products in international market, what greenhouse gas emissions effects of the main import and export agricultural production in China. Whether the change of agricultural trade openness will also affect the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production? For answers to these questions will help us to recognize the greenhouse gas emission reduction pressure of agricultural production in China, and to select strategies of reducing the greenhouse gas emission of agricultural production and foreign trade of agricultural products in line with our national conditions, and to achieve harmonious and sustainable development between Chinese foreign trade in agricultural products and agro-ecological environment. Therefore, this study has certain theoretical and practical value.The overall objective of this study is to examine the impact of agricultural products in international market on the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China. Around this goal, the author on the basis of theoretical analysis of the impact mechanism, that is agricultural products in international market to the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China. Firstly, depicts the evolution of trade patterns and structure of foreign trade in China’s agricultural products. Secondly, estimates the amount of greenhouse gas emissions on the national and sub-regional agricultural production, according to the greenhouse gas emission factors provide by IPCC (2006) and FAO (2004), and the measure of greenhouse gas emissions model. Thirdly, empirical analysis of the effects of greenhouse gas emissions of foreign trade in China’s agricultural products, by learning from Grossman (1991), Chai (2002) and H.Z Li (2010). Finally, empirical analysis of the impact of agricultural trade openness to the greenhouse gas emissions of China’s agricultural production, by improving the econometric Model of economic growth and environmental relations proposed by Grossman&Krueger (1995), introducing the variable of trade openness and agriculture environment, and basing on the inter-provincial panel data.The main conclusions of this study are as follows: 1. Since the1990s, there are a significant change of the trade patterns&structure of foreign trade in China’s agricultural products. Performance:A declining status of the foreign trade in Chinese agricultural products in foreign trade goods in China, foreign exchange earning capacity is significantly diminished. Products structure appeared the situation of mainly exports vegetables, fruits&other labor-intensive agricultural products, and imports cotton, soybeans&other land-intensive agricultural products. Import&export market concentration continue to lower, the market is becoming more rational distribution and diversification. The concentration of import&export trade in the domestic areas is high degree. A shift of the main structure of import&export trade to diversify, the main structure is becoming more rational.2. During1991-2008, the greenhouse gas emissions of China’s agricultural production show an increasing trend and an uneven regional distribution. In particular:Firstly, for farming, the amount of CH4emissions in rice procuction has declined, from9.3144million tons in1991down to9.995million tons in2008; and at the same period the amount of N2O and CO2emissions increased year by year, the amount of N2O emissions from346,700tons in1991rose to487,400tons in2008, the amount of CO2emissions from40,194,800tons in1991to77,858,700tons in2008. Secondly, the amount of CH4and N2O emissions in livestock production showed a "∩" trend. The amount of CH4and N2O emissions respectively from7.6553million tons and353.2thousand tons in1991rose to11,114,300tons and559,300tons in2006. Since then, they were respectively down to9.0074million tons and469,000tons in2008. Thirdly, the structure of greenhouse gas emissions in Chinese agricultural production shows the shrinking trend of farming but the increasing trend of livestock production. Fourthly, the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions in Chinese agricultural production has a high regional degree, and the key emissions areas shows a concentration trends to the less developed and Midwest areas in China.3. China’s main import and export of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions effects of the decomposition results are as follows:(1) For the structure effect, during1991-2008, due to the share changes of import&export of agricultural products, total greenhouse gas emission has reduced583,600tons CO2equivalents, indicating that the optimization of foreign trade structure in China’s agricultural products presents a significant negative effect to greenhouse gas emissions.(2) For the technical effect, during1991-2008, due to the technological progress of agricultural production is slow, the exports of Chinese agricultural products has only reduced greenhouse gas emissions900tons CO2equivalent, indicating that the technological progress is not obvious. At the same time period, the imports of Chinese agricultural products less reduced greenhouse gas emissions45,500tons CO2equivalent. Therefore, in overall terms, the Chinese foreign trade in agricultural products accumulated less reduced greenhouse gas emissions44,600tons CO2equivalent, due to the slow pace of technological progress, indicating that China’s foreign trade in agricultural products presents a significant technical positive effect to domestic greenhouse gas emissions in China.(3) For the scale effect, during1991-2008, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions has a substantial increase caused by export expansion of Chinese agricultural products, cumulative increased greenhouse gas emissions1.5578million tons CO2equivalent. At the same time, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions reducted are also a significant increase caused by the import expansion of Chinese agricultural products, cumulative reduced greenhouse gas emissions2.6076million tons CO2equivalent. Therefore, due to the scale of China’s foreign trade in agricultural products expanded, cumulative net reducted greenhouse gases1.0498million tons CO2equivalent, indicating that the foreign trade of agricultural products presents a significant scale negative effects on domestic greenhouse gas emissions in China.4. The trade openness of agricultural products on different varieties of greenhouse gas emissions in Chinese agricultural production has different effects. In particular:Firstly, for the amount of CO2emissions in Chinese agricultural production, the agricultural export-oriented rate and import penetration influence is significant. Agricultural export-oriented rate increase will increase domestic CO2emissions from Chinese agricultural production, while import penetration enhancement will reduce domestic CO2emissions from Chinese agricultural production; but for the CH4and N2O emissions of Chinese agricultural production, the trade openness influence is not significant. Secondly, the relationship of the actual income in Chinese rural area and the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in domestic agricultural production showing a inverted "U" shaped, indicating that when the income level is lower in rural areas, in order to increase income, agricultural producers by increasing the scale of agricultural production, increase factors inputs and other means of agricultural production, that is to increase the use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, etc and to expand the production scale of livestock, thereby increasing the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production. When the income reaches a certain level, people’s awareness of environmental protection growing, asking the Government to introduce more stringent environmental protection measures to promote agricultural producers to accelerate technological innovation, and to use more low-carbon or environmental friendly agricultural production technologies, so helps to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in agricultural production.In this study, the possibility innovations are as follows:Firstly, build a calculation model of greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China, and take advantage of the relatively reasonable estimates indicators; preliminary estimates the amount of greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production in national and regional of China during1991-2008, providing a reference for future generations. Secondly, Grossman et al (1991) originally proposed the environmental effects of industrial products foreign trade used to the agricultural products foreign trade, and with its theoretical framework from both theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of agricultural products in international market on the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China.The lacks of this study are as follows:Firstly, subject to study conditions restricting could not get a time series data of the greenhouse gas emission factors of crop varieties, which may affect the credibility of calculation results in this article. Secondly, due to lack of the carbon sink factors of crop varieties, didn’t take into the amount of CO2absorbed through photosynthesis, and may overestimate the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in China’s agricultural production. Thirdly, assumes that the greenhouse gas emissions intensity of the imported agricultural products and the agricultural products by domestic production are the same; this will also affect the empirical results.

農產(chǎn)品對外貿易對中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)溫室氣體排放的影響研究

目錄4-8圖目錄8表目錄8-10摘要10-13ABSTRACT13-171 導論18-28    1.1 研究背景18-19    1.2 問題提出及研究意義19-21    1.3 研究目標、假說和內容21-22        1.3.1 研究目標21        1.3.2 研究假說21-22        1.3.3 研究內容22    1.4 研究方法和數(shù)據(jù)來源22-24        1.4.1 研究方法22-23        1.4.2 數(shù)據(jù)來源23-24    1.5 技術路線圖24-25    1.6 可能的創(chuàng)新與不足之處25-26        1.6.1 可能的創(chuàng)新25-26        1.6.2 研究不足26    1.7 全文的結構安排26-282 概念界定與國內外研究綜述28-36    2.1 概念界定28-29        2.1.1 貿易自由化28        2.1.2 農產(chǎn)品貿易自由化28        2.1.3 溫室氣體28        2.1.4 農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體28-29        2.1.5 農產(chǎn)品29    2.2 國內外研究綜述29-34        2.2.1 貿易自由化對生態(tài)環(huán)境影響的爭論29-31        2.2.2 農產(chǎn)品對外貿易對農業(yè)環(huán)境的影響研究31-33        2.2.3 農業(yè)生產(chǎn)溫室氣體排放的相關研究33-34    2.3 本章小結34-363 理論基礎與分析框架36-46    3.1 理論基礎36-39        3.1.1 比較優(yōu)勢理論36-37        3.1.2 外部性理論37-39    3.2 分析框架39-44        3.2.1 農產(chǎn)品對外貿易的結構效應39-41        3.2.2 農產(chǎn)品對外貿易的規(guī)模效應41-43        3.2.3 農產(chǎn)品對外貿易的技術效應43-44    3.3 本章小結44-464 中國農產(chǎn)品進出口貿易格局及結構演變46-64    4.1 中國農產(chǎn)品進出口貿易基本特征46-50        4.1.1 農產(chǎn)品進出口貿易額波動幅度較大48-49        4.1.2 農產(chǎn)品進出口貿易在商品對外貿易中的地位不斷下降49-50    4.2 中國農產(chǎn)品進出口貿易結構演變50-61        4.2.1 中國農產(chǎn)品進出口貿易的產(chǎn)品結構變化50-52        4.2.2 中國農產(chǎn)品進出口貿易的市場分布變化52-56        4.2.3 中國農產(chǎn)品進出口貿易的國內地區(qū)分布變化56-59        4.2.4 中國農產(chǎn)品進出口貿易的主體結構變遷59-61    4.3 中國農產(chǎn)品進出口貿易與比較優(yōu)勢61-62    4.4 本章小結62-645 中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)溫室氣體排放量的測算64-86    5.1 引言64-65    5.2 中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)規(guī)模的發(fā)展概況及演變趨勢65-67        5.2.1 中國主要農作物品種播種面積的變化趨勢65-66        5.2.2 中國主要畜禽品種飼養(yǎng)規(guī)模的變化趨勢66-67    5.3 中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量的測算模型67-73        5.3.1 種植業(yè)農業(yè)生產(chǎn)過程中溫室氣體排放量的測算模型67        5.3.2 畜禽養(yǎng)殖過程中溫室氣體排放量的測算模型67-68        5.3.3 溫室氣體排放量的主要計算參數(shù)68-73    5.4 測算結果及變化趨勢73-84        5.4.1 中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放總量73-76        5.4.2 中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)溫室氣體排放的結構演變76-77        5.4.3 本文測算結果與國內外相關研究的比較77-80        5.4.4 中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)溫室氣體排放的地區(qū)特征80-84    5.5 本章小結84-866 中國主要進出口農產(chǎn)品溫室氣體排放效應的分解86-102    6.1 引言86    6.2 計量模型、數(shù)據(jù)來源與指標說明86-88        6.2.1 計量模型86-87        6.2.2 數(shù)據(jù)來源87-88        6.2.3 指標說明88    6.3 溫室氣體排放強度測算及其變化趨勢88-92        6.3.1 農作物溫室氣體排放量測算公式88-89        6.3.2 畜禽溫室氣體排放量測算公式89        6.3.3 農產(chǎn)品溫室氣體排放強度測算公式89        6.3.4 測算結果及變化趨勢89-92    6.4 中國主要進出口農產(chǎn)品的溫室氣體排放效應的分解結果92-100        6.4.1 結構效應92-95        6.4.2 技術效應95-98        6.4.3 規(guī)模效應98-100    6.5 本章小結100-1027 農產(chǎn)品貿易開放度對中國農業(yè)生產(chǎn)溫室氣體排放影響的實證——基于省際面板數(shù)據(jù)的分析102-110    7.1 引言102    7.2 計量模型、指標選取和數(shù)據(jù)來源102-104        7.2.1 計量模型102-103        7.2.2 指標選取103-104        7.2.3 數(shù)據(jù)來源104    7.3 計量方法、回歸結果及分析104-108        7.3.1 計量方法104-106        7.3.2 回歸結果及分析106-108    7.4 本章小結108-1108 結論及政策建議110-114    8.1 研究結論110-111    8.2 政策建議111-114參考文獻114-120附錄120-134致謝134-136攻讀博士學位期間的科研成果目錄136

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