本文關(guān)鍵詞：近25年來(lái)塔里木河流域區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)空間關(guān)聯(lián)及演化特征分析，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

近25年來(lái)塔里木河流域區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)空間關(guān)聯(lián)及演化特征分析

Spatial autocorrelation of regional economy and dynamic evolution in Tarim River Basin during the last 25 years

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5]

QIAO Xu-ning, YANG De-gang , LU Peng, YANG Yong-ju, ZHANG Yu-fang （ 1 Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China; 2 School of Survegi

[1]中國(guó)科學(xué)院新疆生態(tài)與地理研究所,新疆烏魯木齊830011; [2]河南理工大學(xué)測(cè)繪與國(guó)土信息工程學(xué)院,河南焦作454003; [3]河南省科學(xué)院地理研究所,河南鄭州450052

文章摘要：以塔里木河流域?yàn)檠芯繉?duì)象,借助Arcgis8.5及Geoda等軟件平臺(tái),引入空間自相關(guān)模型,對(duì)塔里木河流域42縣（市）1980-2005年近25年的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)空間關(guān)聯(lián)類型、動(dòng)態(tài)演化特征及動(dòng)力機(jī)制進(jìn)行研究,結(jié)果表明：（1）25年來(lái)塔里木河流域經(jīng)濟(jì)全局空間自相關(guān)系數(shù)增長(zhǎng)了近1.7倍,總體呈現(xiàn)出空間正相關(guān)特征,且為波動(dòng)上升的動(dòng)態(tài)過(guò)程,在5%的顯著性水平下,經(jīng)濟(jì)在空間上表現(xiàn)為顯著的正相關(guān)性。（2）局部區(qū)域空間自相關(guān)特征顯著,區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)顯著負(fù)相關(guān)的區(qū)域逐漸消失,正相關(guān)顯著區(qū)域日趨加強(qiáng),最終演化為低-低及高-高兩種類型區(qū)在東北和西南集中分布格局,且差距不斷增大,各類型區(qū)域面積消長(zhǎng)在起始,震蕩和穩(wěn)定三個(gè)階段呈現(xiàn)出不同特點(diǎn)。（3）區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的近鄰效應(yīng)不斷增強(qiáng),2004年低-低和高-高兩種類型區(qū)域面積是1980的1.66倍,但經(jīng)濟(jì)空間集聚效應(yīng)主要是由于低-低區(qū)域面積的迅速增加所致。（4）工業(yè)化初期階段,礦產(chǎn)資源條件和區(qū)位因素及交通條件兩大因素是促進(jìn)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)空間集聚與演化的動(dòng)力。文章最后探討了流域經(jīng)濟(jì)空間關(guān)聯(lián)特點(diǎn)及演化特征對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)集聚擴(kuò)散過(guò)程、區(qū)域政策選擇、空間開發(fā)模式及區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展等問(wèn)題的影響。

Abstr：This paper uses a spatial statistics method based on the calculation of spatial autocorrelation as a possible approach for modeling and quantifying the distribution of regional economy in the Tarim River Basin. GIS and spatial statistics provide a useful way for describing the distribution of regional economy both spatially and temporally. In this paper, patterns of regional economy spatial relations and its evolution are analyzed in the Tarim River basin from 1980 to 2004. Here are some conclusions： （1） Global Spatial Autocorrelation Coefficient increased nearly 1. 7 times in Tarim River basin in recent 25 years. Spatial positive autocorrelation of regional economy is obvious, which shows a waving and rising feature. Economic growth showed spatial positive autocorrelation at 5 % significant level, which meant that areas having similar levels of economic development clustered easily. （2） Correlations of part areas are significant, but majorities are not. Areas of spatial negative autocorrelation are disappearing gradually, and areas of positive autocorrelation become intensifying more and more. Especially, agglomeration and diffusion characteristics of regional economy along the axis of the railway and highway in south Xinjiang were obvious from 1995, which speeds up the transfer of dominant resources from undeveloped regions to developed regions. Under the multiplier effect and circulation and accumulation effect, the gap of economy between two areas of low - low pattern and high - high pattern becomes larger and larger. As a result, areas of low - low pattern and high - high pattern become two-polar that locates in the southwest and northeast of the Tarim River basin. （3） Changes of four kinds of patterns

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:spatial autocorrelation regional economy spatial cluster the Tafim River Basin

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課題項(xiàng)目：中國(guó)科學(xué)院西部行動(dòng)計(jì)劃（KZCX2-XB2-03-03）;中國(guó)科學(xué)院西部博士計(jì)劃（XBBS200803）

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：近25年來(lái)塔里木河流域區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)空間關(guān)聯(lián)及演化特征分析，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。