發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-02-28 11:16

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì) 高速鐵路 建設(shè)規(guī)模 多元回歸模型　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：摘要：自2004年《中長(zhǎng)期鐵路網(wǎng)規(guī)劃方案》及2008年的調(diào)整方案先后頒布實(shí)施,我國(guó)高速鐵路建設(shè)步入快速發(fā)展期。目前我國(guó)高速鐵路運(yùn)營(yíng)里程已經(jīng)突破萬(wàn)公里,穩(wěn)居世界高速鐵路里程榜首位。伴隨著高速鐵路在我國(guó)的建設(shè)進(jìn)程不斷推進(jìn),高速鐵路作為一種新的交通方式逐步顯現(xiàn)出巨大的技術(shù)優(yōu)勢(shì)而被人民逐漸接納時(shí),許多問(wèn)題也相繼暴露。目前學(xué)術(shù)界對(duì)于我國(guó)高速鐵路的建設(shè)規(guī)模還沒(méi)有較為全面的研究分析,如何做到使高速鐵路發(fā)展規(guī)模與我國(guó)各建設(shè)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力相吻合就是一個(gè)重要的研究課題。 論文研究的目的在于從社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)視角分析“四縱四橫”規(guī)劃的各條客運(yùn)專線與沿途城市社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的適應(yīng)性,提出對(duì)今后高速鐵路建設(shè)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)有指導(dǎo)意義的結(jié)論,推動(dòng)我國(guó)高速鐵路建設(shè)與國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。研究過(guò)程包括了大量數(shù)據(jù)的采集和整理、統(tǒng)計(jì)信息的分析預(yù)測(cè)、理論支撐的說(shuō)明與實(shí)踐趨勢(shì)的判斷,最終形成書面研究成果。為了增加結(jié)論的科學(xué)性和說(shuō)服力,研究過(guò)程中注意了多種分析手段的綜合運(yùn)用,做到了定性與定量相互配合,實(shí)證與理論相互輔助。 本文首先通過(guò)研究國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于鐵路、高速公路和城市軌道交通建設(shè)規(guī)模的理論和方法,以及各交通方式與社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)適應(yīng)性的理論的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn),闡述世界高速鐵路的發(fā)展歷程,并分析高速鐵路建設(shè)與社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的相互影響,從社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)角度出發(fā)總結(jié)歸納并構(gòu)建了高速鐵路社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)適應(yīng)性評(píng)價(jià)的指標(biāo)體系。其次,以《中長(zhǎng)期鐵路網(wǎng)規(guī)劃方案》確定的“四縱四橫”路線圖為依托,選擇其中符合我國(guó)對(duì)高速鐵路定義的32條高速鐵路線路的數(shù)據(jù)作為樣本數(shù)據(jù)。運(yùn)用多元回歸模型的方法對(duì)我國(guó)高速鐵路建設(shè)規(guī)模進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究。隨后通過(guò)擬合得到的多元回歸模型確定所有高速鐵路線路中與沿途城市社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平適應(yīng)性較好的路線,對(duì)與沿途城市社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平適應(yīng)性較為不好的線路進(jìn)行了判別分析,得出在社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)視角下“四縱四橫”路線圖中應(yīng)該建設(shè)的高速鐵路線路以及因與沿途城市當(dāng)前的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平相對(duì)不適應(yīng)而暫時(shí)不應(yīng)該建設(shè)的路線。當(dāng)然,這一結(jié)論的正確性仍有待實(shí)踐檢驗(yàn)。最后,結(jié)合我國(guó)國(guó)情和高速鐵路目前的建設(shè)運(yùn)營(yíng)狀況對(duì)我國(guó)高速鐵路建設(shè)提出改進(jìn)建議。
[Abstract]:Abstract: since 2004, the medium and long term railway network planning plan and the adjustment plan of 2008 have been promulgated and implemented, the construction of high speed railway in our country has stepped into a period of rapid development. At present, the mileage of high speed railway in our country has exceeded 10, 000 kilometers. High speed railway ranks first in the world's high-speed railway mileage list. With the continuous development of high-speed railway in China, high-speed railway, as a new mode of transportation, gradually shows huge technological advantages and is gradually accepted by the people. Many problems have been exposed one after another. At present, there is no comprehensive research and analysis on the scale of high-speed railway construction in China. How to make the development scale of high-speed railway coincide with the regional economic strength of our country is an important research topic. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the adaptability of the planned "four vertical and four horizontal" passenger dedicated lines to the level of social and economic development of cities along the way from the perspective of social economy, and to put forward the conclusions of guiding significance for the development trend of high-speed railway construction in the future. The research process includes the collection and arrangement of a large amount of data, the analysis and prediction of statistical information, the explanation of theoretical support and the judgment of practice trend. In order to make the conclusion more scientific and persuasive, we pay attention to the comprehensive application of a variety of analytical methods in the course of the research, and cooperate with each other in qualitative and quantitative analysis, and complement each other in empirical and theoretical aspects. First of all, through the study of the domestic and foreign theories and methods on the construction scale of railway, expressway and urban rail transit, as well as the relevant literature on the theory of various modes of transportation and the social and economic adaptability, this paper expounds the development course of the world's high-speed railway. It also analyzes the interaction between the construction of high-speed railway and social economy, summarizes and constructs the index system of social and economic adaptability evaluation of high-speed railway from the point of view of social economy. Based on the road map of "four vertical and four horizontal" defined in the medium and long term Railway Network Planning Plan, The data of 32 high-speed railway lines in accordance with the definition of high-speed railway in China are selected as sample data. The scale of high-speed railway construction in China is studied by using the method of multiple regression model. The multivariate regression model is obtained to determine the routes of all high-speed railway lines which are more adaptable to the level of social and economic development of cities along the way. Discriminant analysis is made on the routes which have poor adaptability to the level of social and economic development of cities along the way. Get the high-speed railway line that should be built in the road map of "four vertical and four horizontal" from the social and economic angle of view, and the route that should not be constructed temporarily because of the relative inadaptability to the current level of social and economic development of the city along the way. The correctness of this conclusion still needs to be tested in practice. Finally, some suggestions for improving the construction of high-speed railway in China are put forward according to the national conditions of our country and the current construction and operation situation of high-speed railway.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F532.3

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本文編號(hào)：1547066