發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-09 11:29

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：1919-2008年美國(guó)歷次經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)發(fā)生前的經(jīng)濟(jì)征兆研究　出處：《廣東外語(yǔ)外貿(mào)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： GDP平減指數(shù) 馬歇爾的K值 商業(yè)銀行貸款 利率 新房開(kāi)工量 新房銷售量

【摘要】：對(duì)于美國(guó)歷次的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)，國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)著都有諸多研究，從各個(gè)不同方面說(shuō)明了危機(jī)產(chǎn)生的原因，以及如何去預(yù)防。但大多數(shù)都是純理論邏輯上的敘述說(shuō)明，對(duì)于預(yù)測(cè)經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)沒(méi)有實(shí)質(zhì)上的幫助。本文試圖通過(guò)數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)建立某種數(shù)量指標(biāo)來(lái)研究經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)，讓人們可以通過(guò)這些指標(biāo)來(lái)相對(duì)準(zhǔn)確地預(yù)測(cè)經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)。 本文選取1919-2008年間對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響深遠(yuǎn)的幾次經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)作為案例，通過(guò)分析其危機(jī)來(lái)臨前所出現(xiàn)的共同的經(jīng)濟(jì)征兆（貨幣供求，商業(yè)銀行貸款及利率，和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)），設(shè)置經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)，采用數(shù)量分析法和比較分析法，找出各次經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的相同點(diǎn)和不同點(diǎn)，以及歷次危機(jī)來(lái)臨前與經(jīng)濟(jì)處于正常時(shí)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)的臨界點(diǎn)或臨界區(qū)間。 本文發(fā)現(xiàn)，在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)來(lái)臨之前，貨幣供給M2會(huì)偏高，馬歇爾的K值也會(huì)偏大，并且高于價(jià)格上升的幅度，經(jīng)濟(jì)中存在過(guò)量的貨幣供給，，從而引發(fā)流動(dòng)性過(guò)剩。商業(yè)貸款會(huì)明顯偏高，利率會(huì)降低，從而導(dǎo)致投資過(guò)熱。同時(shí)，大宗產(chǎn)品如房地產(chǎn)業(yè)也會(huì)出現(xiàn)一定程度的投機(jī)過(guò)熱。
[Abstract]:For the previous economic crisis of the United States, both at home and abroad to learn a lot of research, explains the causes of the crisis from different aspects, and how to prevent it. But most of them are pure theory on the logic description, to predict the economic crisis without substantial help. This paper tries to establish a number of index data to study the economic crisis, people can use these indicators to accurately predict the relative economic crisis.
This paper selects several economic crises during the period of 1919-2008 to the United States far-reaching economic impact as a case, through the analysis of the crisis before the arrival of the common signs of economic (money supply and demand, commercial bank loans and interest rates, and real estate), set the economic indicators, using quantitative analysis and comparative analysis, find out the same the economic crisis and different points, and the critical point of the previous crisis before the advent of economic indicators and economic in normal times or critical interval.
We found that, before the advent of the economic crisis, M2 money supply will be high, Marshall's K value will be larger, and higher than the range of prices, there is an excess of the money supply, causing excess liquidity. Commercial loans will be significantly higher interest rates will be reduced, resulting in overheating investment. At the same time, bulk products as the real estate industry will appear overheated speculation to some extent.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東外語(yǔ)外貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F171.2

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