發(fā)布時間：2018-03-05 23:26

  本文選題：耕地非農(nóng)化　切入點：經(jīng)濟增長　出處：《西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：21世紀的陜西在國家西部大開發(fā)戰(zhàn)略的指引下，經(jīng)濟呈現(xiàn)快速增長態(tài)勢，工業(yè)化水平逐漸提高，城鎮(zhèn)化速度不斷加快，建設(shè)用地的需求量與日俱增，使得大量農(nóng)用地尤其是耕地轉(zhuǎn)化為非農(nóng)用地，耕地非農(nóng)化的需求增加，經(jīng)濟增長與耕地非農(nóng)化的進程問題關(guān)系到未來陜西的糧食安全、生態(tài)環(huán)境、土地資源管理、社會經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展等。在此背景下，研究陜西省耕地非農(nóng)化與經(jīng)濟增長的動態(tài)演變和互動關(guān)系，特別是經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型期的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)等變量對耕地非農(nóng)化需求的影響，對于這樣一個經(jīng)濟發(fā)展起步相對較晚的西部省市,在新時期的經(jīng)濟增長過程中采用何種方略有效協(xié)調(diào)、控制耕地非農(nóng)化與建設(shè)用地關(guān)系，為耕地資源的合理轉(zhuǎn)化與經(jīng)濟的協(xié)調(diào)健康發(fā)展提供科學(xué)依據(jù)，對于制定區(qū)域社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略和建設(shè)資源節(jié)約型和環(huán)境友好型社會具有重要的指導(dǎo)意義。 本文從耕地非農(nóng)化概念和實質(zhì)入手，圍繞經(jīng)濟增長與耕地非農(nóng)化互動關(guān)系這個中心，以耕地非農(nóng)化（稀缺性理論、機會成本理論、供求均衡理論和可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論）和經(jīng)濟增長（古典、現(xiàn)代、新古典和新經(jīng)濟增長理論）理論為基礎(chǔ)，采用定性描述法、時間序列分析法和計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)模型等定量方法來研究兩者之間的互動關(guān)系。首先是對陜西省經(jīng)濟總量和經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)、土地概況和耕地非農(nóng)化總體情況進行描述性分析，并以此為基礎(chǔ)，比較耕地非農(nóng)化與經(jīng)濟增長的發(fā)展趨勢；其次采用單位根檢驗、協(xié)整檢驗、誤差修正模型（EMC）檢驗和格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗從長期、短期及因果關(guān)系三個方面分析耕地非農(nóng)化與經(jīng)濟增長的關(guān)系；再次是從經(jīng)濟增長對耕地非農(nóng)化的需求和耕地非農(nóng)化對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻兩方面來展開二者的互動關(guān)系：以GDP、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、投資與消費水平、財政收支、城鄉(xiāng)居民收入和耕地非農(nóng)面積指標(biāo)為基礎(chǔ)驗證耕地的庫茲涅茨曲線方程來分析需求；以資本、勞動力、土地與GDP等指標(biāo)為基礎(chǔ)的超越對數(shù)生產(chǎn)函數(shù)來測算貢獻率；最后對本文的研究進行概括和總結(jié)，并根據(jù)研究結(jié)果提出了加強耕地非農(nóng)調(diào)控力度，正確協(xié)調(diào)經(jīng)濟增長與耕地保護關(guān)系等對策，為陜西經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)長遠發(fā)展提供有價值的參考。 本文的主要結(jié)論有： （1）陜西省處于經(jīng)濟快速增長階段，耕地非農(nóng)化呈現(xiàn)波動性。高效的經(jīng)濟增長速度和巨額的增長量帶動著全省工業(yè)化和城鎮(zhèn)化步伐的加快，但在此期間耕地非農(nóng)面積卻不穩(wěn)定，，這主要是由于國家實施的生態(tài)退耕計劃。 （2）陜西省經(jīng)濟增長、城鎮(zhèn)化水平與耕地非農(nóng)化在長期和短期兩方面存在不同的動態(tài)效應(yīng)。從長期來看，經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展增加了對耕地非農(nóng)面積的需求；短期內(nèi)耕地非農(nóng)化對經(jīng)濟增長和城鎮(zhèn)化水平影響相對較小。 （3）陜西省經(jīng)濟總量對耕地非農(nóng)面積的需求呈現(xiàn)出先增加后減少再增加的趨勢，大致符合耕地庫茲涅茨曲線特征；而經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)中的不同要素對耕地非農(nóng)化產(chǎn)生不同程度的影響。 （4）在各要素對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻率測算中，資本貢獻最大，勞動力占一定份額，耕地非農(nóng)面積的貢獻呈現(xiàn)遞增趨勢。全生產(chǎn)要素增長率較低，對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻具有—定的波動性。
[Abstract]:In twenty-first Century, Shaanxi in the country's western development strategy under the guidance of economic fast growth, the industrialization level gradually increased, the pace of urbanization is accelerating grow with each passing day, the demand for construction land, making a large number of agricultural land especially farmland into non farmland, farmland conversion increased demand, economic growth and farmland process the conversion problem related to food security, the future of Shaanxi's ecological environment, land resources management, the sustainable development of society and economy. Under this background, the research of Shaanxi province farmland dynamic evolution and interaction between agriculture and economic growth, especially the influence of economic transition of the industrial structure variables on the demand for farmland conversion, for such an economic development started relatively late in western provinces and cities, by which effective coordination policy in the new period of economic growth in the process, the control of cultivated land conversion The relationship between land and construction will provide a scientific basis for the rational transformation of cultivated land resources and the coordinated and healthy development of economy. It has important guiding significance for formulating regional social and economic development strategy and building a resource-saving and environment-friendly society.
This article from the concept and essence of farmland conversion, focus on economic growth and cultivated land conversion in the center interaction, with cultivated land conversion (scarcity theory, opportunity cost theory, equilibrium theory and sustainable development theory) and economic growth (classical, modern, neo classical economic growth theory and new growth theory) theory, the the qualitative description method, time series analysis and econometric models and quantitative methods to study the interaction between the two. The first is the Shaanxi province economy and economic structure, the overall conversion of descriptive analysis of land survey and land, and on this basis, comparing the development trend of cultivated land conversion and economic growth; secondly the unit root test, cointegration test, error correction model (EMC) test and Grainger causal relation from three aspects of short-term and long-term causal analysis of farmland The relationship between conversion and economic growth; again from economic growth to conversion of cultivated land demand and cultivated land conversion relationship between two aspects of economic growth to two: GDP, industrial structure, investment and consumption level, financial revenue and expenditure, demand analysis of Kuznets curve equation of the income of urban and rural residents and non-agricultural land area the index based verification to cultivated land; to the capital, labor, land and GDP index of translog production function is the foundation to measure the contribution rate; finally the research summary and conclusion of this article, and according to the research results put forward to strengthen farmland regulation, proper coordination of economic growth and cultivated land protection measures. Provide a valuable reference for Shaanxi's sustained economic development in the long term.
The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:
(1) in Shaanxi Province in the period of rapid economic growth, farmland conversion showed volatility. High economic growth rate and huge growth driven by the industrialization and urbanization accelerate the pace, but in the meantime the farmland area is not stable, this is mainly due to the implementation of the country's ecological restoration plan.
(2) the economic growth of Shaanxi Province, the dynamic effect of different conversion in the two aspects of long-term and short-term non urbanization level and the cultivated land. In the long run, the rapid development of economy increase to the non-agricultural area of cultivated land demand; the short term effect of farmland conversion to the level of economic growth and urbanization are relatively small.
(3) the total demand for arable land in Shaanxi province showed a trend of first increase, then decrease and then increase, which generally accords with the characteristics of Kuznets curve. However, different factors in the economic structure have different effects on farmland conversion.
(4) in the calculation of the contribution rate of each factor to the economic growth, capital contribution is the largest and labor force occupies a certain share. The contribution of cultivated land to non-agricultural area is increasing. The growth rate of total factor of production is relatively low, and the contribution to the economic growth has a certain volatility.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F323.211

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