發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-06 19:42

  本文選題：碳排放　切入點(diǎn)：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)　出處：《北方工業(yè)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：本文利用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型和VAR模型,從產(chǎn)值、就業(yè)和技術(shù)結(jié)構(gòu)三個(gè)角度對(duì)中國(guó)碳排放和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。主要內(nèi)容有以下三個(gè)方面： (1)對(duì)碳排放和產(chǎn)值結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)聯(lián)分析是基于中國(guó)30個(gè)省市1997-2010年的面板數(shù)據(jù),以全國(guó)、東、中、西部地區(qū)為劃分對(duì)象,通過實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),選取個(gè)體時(shí)點(diǎn)雙固定變截距模型進(jìn)行擬合。研究表明,1)全國(guó)及三大地區(qū)的碳排放強(qiáng)度和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)間均存在協(xié)整關(guān)系。2)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和碳排放強(qiáng)度的影響關(guān)系顯著,即通過調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)能夠有效減少碳排放。3)東部地區(qū)的碳排放基數(shù)最小,碳排放強(qiáng)度受產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的影響最大；而中、西部地區(qū)碳排放基數(shù)較大,碳排放強(qiáng)度受產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的影響較小 (2)對(duì)中國(guó)碳排放和就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)聯(lián)分析是基于中國(guó)8個(gè)行業(yè)2003-2010年的面板數(shù)據(jù),通過實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),選取變系數(shù)個(gè)體固定效應(yīng)模型進(jìn)行擬合。研究表明,1)碳排放強(qiáng)度和產(chǎn)業(yè)的就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)間存在長(zhǎng)期均衡的協(xié)整關(guān)系；2)產(chǎn)業(yè)的就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和碳排放強(qiáng)度的影響關(guān)系顯著；3)中國(guó)碳排放的行業(yè)差異顯著。 (3)利用VAR模型研究了中國(guó)碳排放和技術(shù)結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系,構(gòu)建了碳排放強(qiáng)度和技術(shù)結(jié)構(gòu)的動(dòng)態(tài)系統(tǒng),以RD經(jīng)費(fèi)投入強(qiáng)度、RD人員占全部就業(yè)人員的比例、單位GDP的申請(qǐng)授權(quán)專利數(shù)代表技術(shù)結(jié)構(gòu)來進(jìn)行研究。研究表明,1)碳排放強(qiáng)度和RD經(jīng)費(fèi)投入強(qiáng)度、RD人員比例、單位GDP的授權(quán)專利間分別存在長(zhǎng)期均衡的協(xié)整關(guān)系；2)RD經(jīng)費(fèi)投入強(qiáng)度、RD人員比例、單位GDP的授權(quán)專利是碳排放強(qiáng)度變化的Granger因果原因,反之不成立；3)碳排放強(qiáng)度和技術(shù)結(jié)構(gòu)間存在有一種動(dòng)態(tài)的互動(dòng)關(guān)系。 最后,基于以上實(shí)證分析結(jié)論,提出了中國(guó)在低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)下產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的政策建議：(1)針對(duì)不同區(qū)域的具體發(fā)展情況,需制定相應(yīng)的區(qū)域減排政策；(2)調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),促進(jìn)傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí),大力發(fā)展服務(wù)業(yè)；(3)加快技術(shù)進(jìn)步是實(shí)現(xiàn)減排的有效途徑。
[Abstract]:Using panel data model and VAR model, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between China's carbon emissions and industrial structure from the perspectives of output value, employment and technology structure. The main contents are as follows:. The correlation analysis of carbon emission and output structure is based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 1997 to 2010. The study shows that there is a cointegration relationship between carbon emission intensity and industrial structure in China and three major regions. 2) the relationship between industrial structure and carbon emission intensity is significant. That is, by adjusting the industrial structure, we can effectively reduce carbon emissions. 3) the carbon emission base in the eastern region is the smallest, and the carbon emission intensity is most affected by the industrial structure adjustment; in the middle, the western region has a larger carbon emission base. Carbon emission intensity is less affected by industrial structure adjustment. The correlation analysis of China's carbon emissions and employment structure is based on panel data from 2003-2010 for eight industries in China. The study shows that there is a long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship between the carbon emission intensity and the employment structure of the industry (2) the relationship between the employment structure and the carbon emission intensity of the industry is significant (3). Industry differences in carbon emissions in China are significant. Using VAR model, this paper studies the correlation between carbon emission and technology structure in China, and constructs a dynamic system of carbon emission intensity and technology structure. The number of patents granted per unit GDP represents the technical structure of the research. The research shows that the carbon emission intensity and R D investment intensity are the proportion of R D personnel. There is a long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship between the authorized patents of unit GDP and the ratio of R D personnel to R D personnel. The authorized patent of unit GDP is the cause of Granger causality of carbon emission intensity change. On the contrary, there is a dynamic interaction between carbon emission intensity and technical structure. Finally, based on the above empirical analysis conclusions, the paper puts forward the policy suggestion of industrial structure adjustment in China under low-carbon economy: (1) according to the specific development situation of different regions, we need to formulate corresponding regional emission reduction policies to adjust the industrial structure. Promoting the upgrading of traditional industries and developing the service industry vigorously) accelerating the technological progress is an effective way to achieve emission reduction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北方工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：X22;F224;F121.3;F121.3

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