利率周期與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的相關(guān)性研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-12-26 17:51
【摘要】：2008年的金融危機(jī)席卷全球，造成許多國家公司、銀行等紛紛倒閉，盡管中國采取了強(qiáng)有力的措施來避免金融危機(jī)所帶來的影響，但也不可避免的遭受了一些損失。中國不斷采取調(diào)整銀行利率政策來保障經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，但應(yīng)該看到，在中國，利率政策并沒有像經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論預(yù)期的效果明顯，因此對(duì)利率政策有效性的研究是非常必要的。 為了全面的反映利率周期與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期之間的關(guān)系，本文對(duì)利率、經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的概念做出了界定，并簡單介紹了部分經(jīng)典的利率決定理論與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期理論。根據(jù)通用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)對(duì)利率周期和經(jīng)濟(jì)周期進(jìn)行了劃分，并進(jìn)一步詳細(xì)分析兩者之間的關(guān)系。得出下面結(jié)論：第一，利率周期與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)和持續(xù)時(shí)間是一致的；第二，利率周期與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)的幅度大小密切相關(guān)較強(qiáng)，擴(kuò)張和收縮步調(diào)基本一致；第三，通過同步性檢驗(yàn)，可以看出利率的波動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)基本同步，這就為以下分析提供了方向。 選取銀行間市場(chǎng)同業(yè)拆借利率和工業(yè)增加值增長率作為利率與國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長率的代表變量，建立VAR模型，并通過變量間的協(xié)整關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)以及方差分解來分析這些變量之間的關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明，利率變動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)是正相關(guān)的；銀行利率波動(dòng)一直是經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的顯著性影響因素，但是國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值并不是隨著貸款量加大而一直加大，這就要求我們要制定恰當(dāng)?shù)睦剩晟沏y行利率政策。文章的結(jié)尾部分給出了相應(yīng)的政策建議：提出短期內(nèi)控制好銀行利率是防范經(jīng)濟(jì)劇烈波動(dòng)的主要手段，主張長期內(nèi)應(yīng)該改善金融運(yùn)行環(huán)境，建立健全完善的利率政策體系，從而實(shí)現(xiàn)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The 2008 financial crisis swept the world, causing many national companies, banks and so on to fail, although China has taken strong measures to avoid the impact of the financial crisis, but also inevitably suffered some losses. China has constantly adopted the adjustment of bank interest rate policy to ensure the economic development, but it should be seen that in China, interest rate policy does not have the expected effect as expected by economic theory, so it is very necessary to study the effectiveness of interest rate policy. In order to fully reflect the relationship between interest rate cycle and economic cycle, this paper defines the concepts of interest rate and economic cycle, and briefly introduces some classical theories of interest rate decision and economic cycle. The interest rate cycle and the business cycle are divided according to the general standard, and the relationship between them is analyzed in detail. The following conclusions are drawn: first, the turning point and duration of the interest rate cycle and the economic cycle are consistent; second, the interest rate cycle is closely related to the amplitude of the fluctuation of the economic cycle, and the pace of expansion and contraction is basically consistent; Thirdly, through synchronism test, we can see that the fluctuation of interest rate is basically synchronized with economic fluctuation, which provides the direction for the following analysis. The interbank lending rate and the growth rate of industrial added value in the interbank market are selected as the representative variables of interest rate and GDP growth rate, and the VAR model is established, and the Granger causality test is obtained through the cointegration test between the variables and the Granger causality test. Impulse response and variance decomposition are used to analyze the relationship between these variables. The results show that the fluctuation of interest rate is positively related to the fluctuation of economic cycle. The fluctuation of bank interest rate is the significant factor of economic fluctuation, but GDP does not always increase with the increase of loan amount, which requires us to make the appropriate interest rate and perfect the bank interest rate policy. At the end of the article, the corresponding policy suggestions are given: to control the bank interest rate in the short term is the main means to prevent the severe economic fluctuation, and to propose that the financial operating environment should be improved and a sound interest rate policy system should be established in the long run. In order to achieve sustainable development of the national economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0;F124.8
[Abstract]:The 2008 financial crisis swept the world, causing many national companies, banks and so on to fail, although China has taken strong measures to avoid the impact of the financial crisis, but also inevitably suffered some losses. China has constantly adopted the adjustment of bank interest rate policy to ensure the economic development, but it should be seen that in China, interest rate policy does not have the expected effect as expected by economic theory, so it is very necessary to study the effectiveness of interest rate policy. In order to fully reflect the relationship between interest rate cycle and economic cycle, this paper defines the concepts of interest rate and economic cycle, and briefly introduces some classical theories of interest rate decision and economic cycle. The interest rate cycle and the business cycle are divided according to the general standard, and the relationship between them is analyzed in detail. The following conclusions are drawn: first, the turning point and duration of the interest rate cycle and the economic cycle are consistent; second, the interest rate cycle is closely related to the amplitude of the fluctuation of the economic cycle, and the pace of expansion and contraction is basically consistent; Thirdly, through synchronism test, we can see that the fluctuation of interest rate is basically synchronized with economic fluctuation, which provides the direction for the following analysis. The interbank lending rate and the growth rate of industrial added value in the interbank market are selected as the representative variables of interest rate and GDP growth rate, and the VAR model is established, and the Granger causality test is obtained through the cointegration test between the variables and the Granger causality test. Impulse response and variance decomposition are used to analyze the relationship between these variables. The results show that the fluctuation of interest rate is positively related to the fluctuation of economic cycle. The fluctuation of bank interest rate is the significant factor of economic fluctuation, but GDP does not always increase with the increase of loan amount, which requires us to make the appropriate interest rate and perfect the bank interest rate policy. At the end of the article, the corresponding policy suggestions are given: to control the bank interest rate in the short term is the main means to prevent the severe economic fluctuation, and to propose that the financial operating environment should be improved and a sound interest rate policy system should be established in the long run. In order to achieve sustainable development of the national economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0;F124.8
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