發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-12-30 12:09

【摘要】：內(nèi)外需失衡一直是我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展面臨的突出問(wèn)題,2008年全球金融危機(jī)的爆發(fā),外需的下降使得這一問(wèn)題愈顯嚴(yán)峻。對(duì)于一個(gè)有著近14億人口的大國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō),總需求不可能依靠國(guó)外市場(chǎng)來(lái)解決,擴(kuò)大國(guó)內(nèi)的消費(fèi)需求理應(yīng)作為一項(xiàng)長(zhǎng)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)國(guó)策。然而如何刺激居民消費(fèi),拉動(dòng)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng),是如今國(guó)家面臨的重要問(wèn)題。城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展作為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的助推器,已越來(lái)越成為政府和社會(huì)理論界關(guān)注的重點(diǎn),關(guān)于城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展和居民消費(fèi)之間的關(guān)系也引起了理論界的廣泛關(guān)注。21世紀(jì)以來(lái),我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展突飛猛進(jìn),城鎮(zhèn)化所帶來(lái)的一系列經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)也逐漸體現(xiàn)出來(lái)。本文試圖對(duì)我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展和居民消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)的相互關(guān)系進(jìn)行深入研究,探索提高居民消費(fèi)水平的新路徑。 本文在總結(jié)已有文獻(xiàn)研究的基礎(chǔ)上,首先對(duì)我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化的發(fā)展和城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)之間的關(guān)系做了理論分析。一方面,城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展帶來(lái)的收入效應(yīng)可以促進(jìn)居民消費(fèi)的增長(zhǎng)。其帶來(lái)的消費(fèi)“示范效應(yīng)”,可以引發(fā)居民消費(fèi)方式和消費(fèi)習(xí)慣發(fā)生改變,從而帶動(dòng)消費(fèi)的增長(zhǎng)。城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展還能增強(qiáng)居民的消費(fèi)信心。另一方面,城鎮(zhèn)基礎(chǔ)實(shí)施的完善,生活環(huán)境的舒適,消費(fèi)的便捷,這些都是吸引農(nóng)村居民“進(jìn)城”的必要條件,隨著居民消費(fèi)能力的提高,城鎮(zhèn)的吸引力也隨之增強(qiáng)。然而,城鎮(zhèn)較高的生活成本也一定程度上阻礙了“農(nóng)民進(jìn)城”；其次對(duì)我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展和城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了梳理,我國(guó)目前尚處在城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的加速期,城鎮(zhèn)化水平和發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家相比還有一定距離,還有很大的發(fā)展空間。居民消費(fèi)方面,我國(guó)目前的消費(fèi)率還比較低,經(jīng)過(guò)對(duì)我國(guó)城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的深入分析,得出結(jié)論,我國(guó)居民整體在“住行學(xué)”方面的消費(fèi)支出比重上漲緩慢,尤其是農(nóng)村地區(qū),“住行學(xué)”消費(fèi)更為落后,這方面的消費(fèi)性投資不足是一項(xiàng)重要的原因。 在理論研究的基礎(chǔ)上文章通過(guò)建立VAR模型,探討我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展和居民消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系,研究結(jié)果表明,城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)有一定的促進(jìn)作用,經(jīng)比較發(fā)現(xiàn),長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展和農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)之間存在顯著的相互促進(jìn)關(guān)系。最后結(jié)合理論分析和實(shí)證研究的結(jié)果,文章有針對(duì)性地提出了政策建議。
[Abstract]:The imbalance of internal and external demand has always been a prominent problem in China's economic development. With the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the decline of external demand makes this problem more serious. For a large country with a population of nearly 1.4 billion, it is impossible to rely on the foreign market to solve the total demand. Expanding domestic consumption demand should be regarded as a long-term national economic policy. However, how to stimulate the consumption of residents and stimulate the growth of the national economy is an important issue facing the country today. As the booster of economic development, urbanization development has become the focus of attention of the government and social theorists. The relationship between urbanization development and residents' consumption has also aroused widespread concern in the theoretical circle since the 21st century. With the rapid development of urbanization in China, a series of economic effects brought by urbanization are gradually reflected. This paper attempts to study the relationship between the development of urbanization and the growth of resident consumption in China, and explore a new way to improve the consumption level of residents. On the basis of summarizing the existing literature, this paper first makes a theoretical analysis of the relationship between the development of urbanization and the consumption of urban and rural residents in China. On the one hand, the income effect of urbanization development can promote the growth of resident consumption. The "demonstration effect" of consumption can lead to changes in consumption patterns and habits, thus driving the growth of consumption. The development of urbanization can also enhance the consumer confidence of residents. On the other hand, the perfection of urban infrastructure, the comfort of living environment and the convenience of consumption are all necessary conditions to attract rural residents to enter the city. With the improvement of residents' consumption ability, the attractiveness of cities and towns also increases. However, the high cost of living in cities and towns also hinders the "peasants entering the city" to some extent; Secondly, it combs the development of urbanization and the consumption of urban and rural residents in our country. At present, China is still in the accelerating period of urbanization development. Compared with developed countries, the level of urbanization still has a certain distance, and there is still a lot of room for development. In terms of residents' consumption, the current consumption rate in our country is still relatively low. Through an in-depth analysis of the consumption structure of urban and rural residents in China, it is concluded that the proportion of consumption expenditure of the residents as a whole in "residential education" has risen slowly. Especially in rural areas, the consumption of "living and learning" is more backward, which is an important reason. On the basis of theoretical research, this paper discusses the relationship between urbanization development and resident consumption growth by establishing VAR model. The results show that urbanization development can promote the consumption growth of urban and rural residents to a certain extent. In the long run, there is a significant mutual promotion relationship between the urbanization development and the consumption growth of rural residents. Finally, combined with the theoretical analysis and empirical research results, the paper puts forward policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.2;F126.1

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本文編號(hào)：2395564