我國城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展與城鄉(xiāng)居民消費關系研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-30 12:09
【摘要】：內(nèi)外需失衡一直是我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展面臨的突出問題,2008年全球金融危機的爆發(fā),外需的下降使得這一問題愈顯嚴峻。對于一個有著近14億人口的大國來說,總需求不可能依靠國外市場來解決,擴大國內(nèi)的消費需求理應作為一項長期的經(jīng)濟國策。然而如何刺激居民消費,拉動國民經(jīng)濟的增長,是如今國家面臨的重要問題。城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展作為經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的助推器,已越來越成為政府和社會理論界關注的重點,關于城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展和居民消費之間的關系也引起了理論界的廣泛關注。21世紀以來,我國城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展突飛猛進,城鎮(zhèn)化所帶來的一系列經(jīng)濟效應也逐漸體現(xiàn)出來。本文試圖對我國城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展和居民消費增長的相互關系進行深入研究,探索提高居民消費水平的新路徑。 本文在總結已有文獻研究的基礎上,首先對我國城鎮(zhèn)化的發(fā)展和城鄉(xiāng)居民消費之間的關系做了理論分析。一方面,城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展帶來的收入效應可以促進居民消費的增長。其帶來的消費“示范效應”,可以引發(fā)居民消費方式和消費習慣發(fā)生改變,從而帶動消費的增長。城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展還能增強居民的消費信心。另一方面,城鎮(zhèn)基礎實施的完善,生活環(huán)境的舒適,消費的便捷,這些都是吸引農(nóng)村居民“進城”的必要條件,隨著居民消費能力的提高,城鎮(zhèn)的吸引力也隨之增強。然而,城鎮(zhèn)較高的生活成本也一定程度上阻礙了“農(nóng)民進城”；其次對我國城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展和城鄉(xiāng)居民消費現(xiàn)狀進行了梳理,我國目前尚處在城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的加速期,城鎮(zhèn)化水平和發(fā)達國家相比還有一定距離,還有很大的發(fā)展空間。居民消費方面,我國目前的消費率還比較低,經(jīng)過對我國城鄉(xiāng)居民消費結構的深入分析,得出結論,我國居民整體在“住行學”方面的消費支出比重上漲緩慢,尤其是農(nóng)村地區(qū),“住行學”消費更為落后,這方面的消費性投資不足是一項重要的原因。 在理論研究的基礎上文章通過建立VAR模型,探討我國城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展和居民消費增長之間的關系,研究結果表明,城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展對城鄉(xiāng)居民消費增長有一定的促進作用,經(jīng)比較發(fā)現(xiàn),長期來看,城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展和農(nóng)村居民消費增長之間存在顯著的相互促進關系。最后結合理論分析和實證研究的結果,文章有針對性地提出了政策建議。
[Abstract]:The imbalance of internal and external demand has always been a prominent problem in China's economic development. With the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the decline of external demand makes this problem more serious. For a large country with a population of nearly 1.4 billion, it is impossible to rely on the foreign market to solve the total demand. Expanding domestic consumption demand should be regarded as a long-term national economic policy. However, how to stimulate the consumption of residents and stimulate the growth of the national economy is an important issue facing the country today. As the booster of economic development, urbanization development has become the focus of attention of the government and social theorists. The relationship between urbanization development and residents' consumption has also aroused widespread concern in the theoretical circle since the 21st century. With the rapid development of urbanization in China, a series of economic effects brought by urbanization are gradually reflected. This paper attempts to study the relationship between the development of urbanization and the growth of resident consumption in China, and explore a new way to improve the consumption level of residents. On the basis of summarizing the existing literature, this paper first makes a theoretical analysis of the relationship between the development of urbanization and the consumption of urban and rural residents in China. On the one hand, the income effect of urbanization development can promote the growth of resident consumption. The "demonstration effect" of consumption can lead to changes in consumption patterns and habits, thus driving the growth of consumption. The development of urbanization can also enhance the consumer confidence of residents. On the other hand, the perfection of urban infrastructure, the comfort of living environment and the convenience of consumption are all necessary conditions to attract rural residents to enter the city. With the improvement of residents' consumption ability, the attractiveness of cities and towns also increases. However, the high cost of living in cities and towns also hinders the "peasants entering the city" to some extent; Secondly, it combs the development of urbanization and the consumption of urban and rural residents in our country. At present, China is still in the accelerating period of urbanization development. Compared with developed countries, the level of urbanization still has a certain distance, and there is still a lot of room for development. In terms of residents' consumption, the current consumption rate in our country is still relatively low. Through an in-depth analysis of the consumption structure of urban and rural residents in China, it is concluded that the proportion of consumption expenditure of the residents as a whole in "residential education" has risen slowly. Especially in rural areas, the consumption of "living and learning" is more backward, which is an important reason. On the basis of theoretical research, this paper discusses the relationship between urbanization development and resident consumption growth by establishing VAR model. The results show that urbanization development can promote the consumption growth of urban and rural residents to a certain extent. In the long run, there is a significant mutual promotion relationship between the urbanization development and the consumption growth of rural residents. Finally, combined with the theoretical analysis and empirical research results, the paper puts forward policy recommendations.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.2;F126.1
本文編號：2395564
[Abstract]:The imbalance of internal and external demand has always been a prominent problem in China's economic development. With the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the decline of external demand makes this problem more serious. For a large country with a population of nearly 1.4 billion, it is impossible to rely on the foreign market to solve the total demand. Expanding domestic consumption demand should be regarded as a long-term national economic policy. However, how to stimulate the consumption of residents and stimulate the growth of the national economy is an important issue facing the country today. As the booster of economic development, urbanization development has become the focus of attention of the government and social theorists. The relationship between urbanization development and residents' consumption has also aroused widespread concern in the theoretical circle since the 21st century. With the rapid development of urbanization in China, a series of economic effects brought by urbanization are gradually reflected. This paper attempts to study the relationship between the development of urbanization and the growth of resident consumption in China, and explore a new way to improve the consumption level of residents. On the basis of summarizing the existing literature, this paper first makes a theoretical analysis of the relationship between the development of urbanization and the consumption of urban and rural residents in China. On the one hand, the income effect of urbanization development can promote the growth of resident consumption. The "demonstration effect" of consumption can lead to changes in consumption patterns and habits, thus driving the growth of consumption. The development of urbanization can also enhance the consumer confidence of residents. On the other hand, the perfection of urban infrastructure, the comfort of living environment and the convenience of consumption are all necessary conditions to attract rural residents to enter the city. With the improvement of residents' consumption ability, the attractiveness of cities and towns also increases. However, the high cost of living in cities and towns also hinders the "peasants entering the city" to some extent; Secondly, it combs the development of urbanization and the consumption of urban and rural residents in our country. At present, China is still in the accelerating period of urbanization development. Compared with developed countries, the level of urbanization still has a certain distance, and there is still a lot of room for development. In terms of residents' consumption, the current consumption rate in our country is still relatively low. Through an in-depth analysis of the consumption structure of urban and rural residents in China, it is concluded that the proportion of consumption expenditure of the residents as a whole in "residential education" has risen slowly. Especially in rural areas, the consumption of "living and learning" is more backward, which is an important reason. On the basis of theoretical research, this paper discusses the relationship between urbanization development and resident consumption growth by establishing VAR model. The results show that urbanization development can promote the consumption growth of urban and rural residents to a certain extent. In the long run, there is a significant mutual promotion relationship between the urbanization development and the consumption growth of rural residents. Finally, combined with the theoretical analysis and empirical research results, the paper puts forward policy recommendations.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.2;F126.1
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