印度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)潛力研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-01-05 10:30
【摘要】：從20世紀(jì)后半葉開始,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的中心已經(jīng)悄然從歐美發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)慢慢轉(zhuǎn)移到亞洲太平洋區(qū)域。亞太地區(qū)國家不斷創(chuàng)造著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的奇跡。到了20世紀(jì)末,中國和印度作為世界上最大的兩個(gè)發(fā)展中國家開始展現(xiàn)出自己的實(shí)力,成為世界上經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)最快的兩個(gè)國家。2003年美國高盛公司將巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國并稱為“金磚四國”,并預(yù)測(cè)在2050年左右,中國和印度都將超越美國成為世界前兩大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。2010年,印度的GDP增速首次超過中國。2012年,根據(jù)國際貨幣基金組織發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2011年度印度GDP(購買力平價(jià)法)達(dá)到4.46萬億美元,超過日本成為世界第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。然而從2012年第一季度開始一直到2014年,印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速明顯放緩,2014年預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)率只有5%,金磚“成色”有所褪去。同其他發(fā)展中國家通過工業(yè)化來促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展相比,印度的制造業(yè)一直都發(fā)展緩慢,相反第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展卻十分迅速。本文的目的就是運(yùn)用經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模型來剖析印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,同時(shí)對(duì)印度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的潛力進(jìn)行評(píng)估。首先,本文對(duì)印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)進(jìn)行了分析。由于拉奧改革使得印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)體制發(fā)生了結(jié)構(gòu)性變化,因此本文分別分析了拉奧改革前后印度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的歷程。隨后,本文通過對(duì)印度潛在產(chǎn)出以及產(chǎn)出缺口的測(cè)量估計(jì)了在短期內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境沒有大改變的情況下,印度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的潛力。然而,我們更希望了解印度在未來一段時(shí)期內(nèi)能否保持一個(gè)較高的增長(zhǎng)率。所以本文對(duì)印度GDP的增長(zhǎng)率進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)。本文采用了兩種方法對(duì)印度GDP的增長(zhǎng)率進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)以避免單一方法帶來的偏差。當(dāng)然,對(duì)于印度這樣一個(gè)發(fā)展中國家而言,其本身的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不可避免的受到非經(jīng)濟(jì)因素的影響。因此本文在最后一部分著重分析了影響印度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的內(nèi)外部因素,并試圖指出這些因素對(duì)于印度未來經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響。在對(duì)印度內(nèi)部的政治,文化以及安全方面的問題進(jìn)行分析后,本文剖析了全球化趨勢(shì)下,印度同其幾個(gè)親密國家和區(qū)域的關(guān)系。在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展內(nèi)部動(dòng)力不足的前提下,通過發(fā)展同其他國家的關(guān)系將是印度打開經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之門的鑰匙。通過分析發(fā)現(xiàn),印度在未來10年將達(dá)到一個(gè)年平均8%-9%的水平�？梢哉f印度還是存在著比較大的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)潛力的。
[Abstract]:Since the second half of the 20th century, the center of world economic growth has quietly shifted from the developed regions of Europe and America to the Asia Pacific region. Countries in the Asia-Pacific region continue to create a miracle of economic growth. By the end of the 20th century, China and India, the two largest developing countries in the world, had begun to show their strength and become the two fastest growing economies in the world. India and China are known as the BRICs, and both expect to overtake the United States as the world's top two economies around 2050. India's GDP grew faster than China's for the first time in 2010. India's GDP hit $4.46 trillion in 2011, overtaking Japan as the world's third-largest economy, according to data released by the International Monetary Fund. From the first quarter of 2012 to 2014, however, India's economic growth slowed markedly, with only 5 percent expected to grow in 2014, and the BRICS "color" faded. Compared with other developing countries to promote economic development through industrialization, India's manufacturing industry has been slow, on the contrary, the tertiary industry is developing very quickly. The purpose of this paper is to use the economic growth model to analyze India's economic development and to evaluate the potential of India's economic growth. First of all, this paper analyzes India's economic growth. As the reform of Rao has caused structural changes in India's economic system, this paper analyzes the process of India's economic growth before and after Rao's reform. Then, by measuring the potential output and the output gap, this paper estimates the potential of India's economic growth without a great change in the economic environment in the short term. However, we would prefer to know whether India will be able to maintain a high growth rate for some time to come. So this paper forecasts the growth rate of India's GDP. In this paper, two methods are used to predict the growth rate of India's GDP to avoid the deviation caused by a single method. Of course, for a developing country like India, its own economic development is inevitably affected by non-economic factors. Therefore, in the last part of this paper, the author analyzes the internal and external factors that affect India's economic growth, and tries to point out the influence of these factors on India's future economic growth. After analyzing the political, cultural and security issues within India, this paper analyzes the relationship between India and several of its close countries and regions under the trend of globalization. Given the lack of internal momentum in economic development, developing relations with other countries will be the key to India's opening the door to economic growth. According to the analysis, India will reach an annual average of 8-9% in the next 10 years. It can be said that India still has a relatively large potential for economic growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F135.1
本文編號(hào)：2401648
[Abstract]:Since the second half of the 20th century, the center of world economic growth has quietly shifted from the developed regions of Europe and America to the Asia Pacific region. Countries in the Asia-Pacific region continue to create a miracle of economic growth. By the end of the 20th century, China and India, the two largest developing countries in the world, had begun to show their strength and become the two fastest growing economies in the world. India and China are known as the BRICs, and both expect to overtake the United States as the world's top two economies around 2050. India's GDP grew faster than China's for the first time in 2010. India's GDP hit $4.46 trillion in 2011, overtaking Japan as the world's third-largest economy, according to data released by the International Monetary Fund. From the first quarter of 2012 to 2014, however, India's economic growth slowed markedly, with only 5 percent expected to grow in 2014, and the BRICS "color" faded. Compared with other developing countries to promote economic development through industrialization, India's manufacturing industry has been slow, on the contrary, the tertiary industry is developing very quickly. The purpose of this paper is to use the economic growth model to analyze India's economic development and to evaluate the potential of India's economic growth. First of all, this paper analyzes India's economic growth. As the reform of Rao has caused structural changes in India's economic system, this paper analyzes the process of India's economic growth before and after Rao's reform. Then, by measuring the potential output and the output gap, this paper estimates the potential of India's economic growth without a great change in the economic environment in the short term. However, we would prefer to know whether India will be able to maintain a high growth rate for some time to come. So this paper forecasts the growth rate of India's GDP. In this paper, two methods are used to predict the growth rate of India's GDP to avoid the deviation caused by a single method. Of course, for a developing country like India, its own economic development is inevitably affected by non-economic factors. Therefore, in the last part of this paper, the author analyzes the internal and external factors that affect India's economic growth, and tries to point out the influence of these factors on India's future economic growth. After analyzing the political, cultural and security issues within India, this paper analyzes the relationship between India and several of its close countries and regions under the trend of globalization. Given the lack of internal momentum in economic development, developing relations with other countries will be the key to India's opening the door to economic growth. According to the analysis, India will reach an annual average of 8-9% in the next 10 years. It can be said that India still has a relatively large potential for economic growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F135.1
【共引文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條
1 陳奉林;;從東亞區(qū)域意識(shí)到東方國家的整體崛起——對(duì)東方國家歷史進(jìn)程的再認(rèn)識(shí)[J];華中師范大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(人文社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2014年05期
2 陳奉林;;建設(shè)21世紀(jì)海上絲綢之路的初步構(gòu)想[J];人文雜志;2015年10期
相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條
1 楊怡爽;制度視角的中印經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)比較[D];中國社會(huì)科學(xué)院研究生院;2011年
相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前3條
1 余思佳;全球金融危機(jī)對(duì)印度經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響[D];云南大學(xué);2012年
2 杜芳芳;中印金融服務(wù)貿(mào)易國際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力比較研究[D];廣東外語外貿(mào)大學(xué);2014年
3 姚雪斐;中印五年規(guī)劃比較研究[D];清華大學(xué);2014年
，本文編號(hào)：2401648
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