發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-25 20:53

【摘要】：太陽能光伏發(fā)電作為一種新型清潔能源得到了各國政府廣泛的關(guān)注和應(yīng)用。LCA是分析產(chǎn)品系統(tǒng)對(duì)環(huán)境影響的方法,通過LCA可以發(fā)現(xiàn)其影響環(huán)境的潛在之處并將其對(duì)環(huán)境的影響降到最低。近些年國內(nèi)外對(duì)光伏電池板的LCA有豐富的研究,然而這些研究存在嚴(yán)重的不足:1.目前沒有中國太陽能電池板的完整LCA研究,絕大部分現(xiàn)有的研究缺乏對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)選取和廢棄處理等過程的詳細(xì)分析;2.國內(nèi)外絕大部分LCA研究中缺乏結(jié)果可靠性和不確定性的分析,導(dǎo)致了讀者無法判斷結(jié)果的可信度;3.缺乏提高LCA結(jié)果可靠性的方法框架。本文將針對(duì)以上問題展開研究。首先,建立完整的中國光伏電池板LCA。主要對(duì)單元過程輸入輸出數(shù)據(jù)的確定和清單計(jì)算以及廢棄處理進(jìn)行研究。1.分析數(shù)據(jù)來源及其質(zhì)量,包括生產(chǎn)單元過程的信息(時(shí)間代表性、技術(shù)代表性等)、LCI方法和分配原則、數(shù)據(jù)來源、數(shù)據(jù)處理方法和數(shù)據(jù)代表性、完整性、可靠性以及審核信息;2.確定單元過程的輸入輸出數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)比分析并選取了合適的上游清單數(shù)據(jù)庫,并開發(fā)簡易基于的EXCEL的生命周期清單計(jì)算工具,計(jì)算了各生產(chǎn)階段、廢棄處理階段以及全生命周期的 從搖籃到大門‖的清單數(shù)據(jù);3.進(jìn)行生命周期影響評(píng)價(jià),主要突出電池板生產(chǎn)過程各階段及各輸入物質(zhì)對(duì)環(huán)境的影響程度,結(jié)果顯示電池板對(duì)“人類健康”的影響最大,而各輸入物質(zhì)中,“電能”引起的環(huán)境污染最為嚴(yán)重;4.進(jìn)行完善的生命周期解釋,包括重大問題識(shí)別、敏感性和不確定性分析、完整性和一致性檢查等。其次,對(duì)本研究LCA結(jié)果的可靠性和不確定性進(jìn)行分析。敏感性分析的結(jié)果顯示,銀漿、POCl3和碳化硅對(duì)溫室效應(yīng)具有最高的敏感性系數(shù)SC,“過程二NaOH”、“過程二能耗”和“過程三能耗”對(duì)溫室效應(yīng)具有最高的敏感性比SR。此外對(duì)酸性以及不同時(shí)間跨度的溫室效應(yīng)模型進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,基本得出相同的敏感性排名。不確定性的結(jié)果顯示,在置信度為97.5%情形下,平均標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差為0.19-0.22,只有“酸化”的分布函數(shù)符合與輸入物質(zhì)相同的對(duì)數(shù)正態(tài)分布,而三種不同時(shí)間跨度下的“溫室效應(yīng)”則最符合最大值分布。其中碳化硅、聚乙二醇、鋁邊框和銅對(duì)總結(jié)過的不確定性具有最高程度的影響。再次,本文提出了將不確定性分析深入到LCA每個(gè)過程的新框架,有助于LCA研究的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展。最后對(duì)本文研究進(jìn)行了總結(jié),以及未來的展望。
[Abstract]:Solar photovoltaic power generation as a new clean energy has been widely concerned and applied by governments. LCA is a method to analyze the impact of product systems on the environment. Through LCA, the potential of environmental impact can be found and its impact on the environment is minimized. In recent years, there have been a lot of research on LCA of photovoltaic panels at home and abroad, but these researches have serious shortcomings: 1. At present, there is no complete LCA research on solar panels in China, and most of the existing researches lack detailed analysis of data selection and waste disposal. 2. Most of the LCA studies at home and abroad lack the analysis of reliability and uncertainty of the results, resulting in readers can not judge the reliability of the results; 3. There is no framework to improve the reliability of LCA results. This article will carry on the research to the above question. First of all, the establishment of a complete Chinese photovoltaic panel LCA. The unit process input and output data determination and inventory calculation and waste treatment are studied. 1. Analysis of data sources and their quality, including), LCI methods and allocation principles for production unit processes (time representation, technical representation, etc.), data sources, data processing methods and data representativeness, integrity, etc. Reliability and audit information; 2. The input and output data of the unit process are determined, the appropriate upstream inventory database is compared and selected, and the life cycle inventory calculation tool based on the simple EXCEL is developed, and the production stages are calculated. Inventory data for the waste disposal phase and the entire life cycle from cradle to door; 3. Life cycle impact assessment (LIA) mainly highlights the various stages of battery panel production and the impact of each input substance on the environment. The results show that the panel has the greatest impact on "human health", and among the various inputs, The environmental pollution caused by "electric energy" is the most serious. 4. Complete lifecycle interpretation, including critical problem identification, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, integrity and consistency checks, etc. Secondly, the reliability and uncertainty of LCA results are analyzed. The results of sensitivity analysis show that silver paste, POCl3 and silicon carbide have the highest sensitivity to Greenhouse Effect SC, "process two NaOH", "process two energy consumption" and "process three energy consumption" have the highest sensitivity to Greenhouse Effect than SR.. In addition, the acidic and different time span Greenhouse Effect models were compared and the same sensitivity ranking was obtained. The result of uncertainty shows that when the confidence is 97.5%, the average standard error is 0.19-0.22. Only the distribution function of "acidification" accords with the same logarithmic normal distribution as the input substance. The Greenhouse Effect with three different time spans is most suitable for maximum distribution. Silicon carbide, polyethylene glycol, aluminum borders and copper have the highest degree of uncertainty. Thirdly, this paper proposes a new framework for the analysis of uncertainty into each process of LCA, which is helpful to the further development of LCA research. Finally, this paper summarizes the research and future prospects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TM914.41

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