發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-29 08:30

【摘要】：隨著傳統(tǒng)的電力系統(tǒng)靜態(tài)安全分析方法的局限性和不足之處的日益暴露，人們逐漸地將研究重點(diǎn)轉(zhuǎn)向不確定性分析方法。目前，不確定性分析方法中的隨機(jī)潮流方法已經(jīng)得到了比較深入的研究，但是從電力系統(tǒng)安全運(yùn)行的角度將其應(yīng)用于靜態(tài)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的研究卻很少。針對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)傳統(tǒng)的靜態(tài)安全分析方法存在的缺陷，本文從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的角度，對(duì)電網(wǎng)運(yùn)行的安全性進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估。 本文對(duì)計(jì)及氣象因素的輸電線路故障概率的實(shí)時(shí)模型進(jìn)行深入探討，將輸電線路分為絕緣子、導(dǎo)線、避雷器、桿塔、地線5個(gè)部分來進(jìn)行在線監(jiān)測(cè)，并依據(jù)其規(guī)格和實(shí)際運(yùn)行情況分別建立了各個(gè)監(jiān)測(cè)量的量化模型，然后采用未確知有理數(shù)的權(quán)系數(shù)法和模糊評(píng)估法，建立了基于在線監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)的輸電線路實(shí)時(shí)故障概率的層次評(píng)估模型，同時(shí)考慮當(dāng)前的氣象條件，建立了計(jì)及氣象因素的輸電線路故障概率的實(shí)時(shí)評(píng)估模型。 本文深入探討了可用于靜態(tài)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的隨機(jī)潮流法。考慮了電力系統(tǒng)中存在的各種不確定性因素，并對(duì)負(fù)荷的波動(dòng)性和發(fā)電機(jī)出力的隨機(jī)性建立了相應(yīng)的概率模型，，并提出了以半不變量為基礎(chǔ)的Cornish-Fisher級(jí)數(shù)展開法進(jìn)行隨機(jī)潮流計(jì)算，對(duì)系統(tǒng)中由這些不確定因素造成的線路功率和節(jié)點(diǎn)電壓的不確定性進(jìn)行分析。 本文從框架的觀點(diǎn)提出了電力系統(tǒng)靜態(tài)安全在線風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法，并建立了適用于靜態(tài)安全在線風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)。為了達(dá)到在線風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的實(shí)時(shí)性要求，本文根據(jù)提出的篩選指標(biāo)對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)的預(yù)想故障集進(jìn)行了實(shí)時(shí)故障篩選與排序；在此基礎(chǔ)上，利用本文所提方法計(jì)算系統(tǒng)的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)，真實(shí)全面地反映系統(tǒng)在當(dāng)前運(yùn)行狀態(tài)下所處的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平。
[Abstract]:With the limitation and deficiency of the traditional static security analysis method of power system, people gradually turn the research focus to the uncertainty analysis method. At present, the stochastic power flow method in the uncertainty analysis method has been deeply studied, but it is rarely applied to static security risk assessment from the point of view of safe operation of power system. Aiming at the shortcomings of the traditional static security analysis method of power system, this paper evaluates the security of power network operation from the risk point of view. In this paper, the real time model of transmission line failure probability considering meteorological factors is discussed in depth. The transmission line is divided into five parts: insulator, conductor, arrester, pole tower and ground wire. According to its specifications and actual operation, the quantitative models of each monitoring quantity are established, and then the weight coefficient method of unascertained rational number and the fuzzy evaluation method are adopted. Based on on-line monitoring data, a real-time fault probability evaluation model for transmission lines is established. Considering the current meteorological conditions, a real-time evaluation model of transmission line fault probability is established taking into account meteorological factors. This paper discusses the stochastic power flow method which can be used for static security risk assessment. Considering all kinds of uncertain factors in power system, the probability model of load fluctuation and generator output randomness is established. A Cornish-Fisher series expansion method based on semi-invariants is proposed to calculate the random power flow. The uncertainties of line power and node voltage caused by these uncertainties are analyzed. In this paper, an on-line risk assessment method for static security of power system is proposed from the viewpoint of frame, and a risk index suitable for online risk assessment of static security is established. In order to meet the real-time requirements of online risk assessment, this paper carries out real-time fault screening and sorting for the expected fault set of power system according to the proposed screening index. On this basis, the method proposed in this paper is used to calculate the comprehensive risk index of the system, which reflects the risk level of the system under the current running state.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：TM711

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1 李t熝

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