發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-12 17:00

  本文選題：特大惡性事故 + 影響因素��； 參考：《長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)高速有效的發(fā)展，我國(guó)的道路交通事業(yè)有了長(zhǎng)足的進(jìn)步，但是我國(guó)已經(jīng)進(jìn)入道路交通事故的高峰期。尤其是一次死亡10人以上的特大惡性交通事故，其致死率約為50%，相比全國(guó)道路交通事故約20%的致死率，特大惡性交通事故造成的后果更加惡劣，因此對(duì)特大惡性交通事故進(jìn)行深度分析以提高安全水平是具有重要意義的。 本文針對(duì)特大惡性道路交通事故，從事故影響因素的角度建立事故數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)，采用了因子分析和決策樹(shù)兩種數(shù)據(jù)挖掘方法，全面深入地分析特大惡性交通事故。 首先，收集2005-2012年全國(guó)特大惡性事故250起案例，建立特大惡性交通事故數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)，并對(duì)特大惡性事故的特征進(jìn)行了統(tǒng)計(jì)分析，有效地把握了該類(lèi)事故的分布規(guī)律。 其次，對(duì)特大惡性事故的影響因素進(jìn)行了分析，找出主要的影響因素。在人員、車(chē)輛、道路、環(huán)境影響因素中建立因子分析模型，通過(guò)因子分析得出公共因子，，由權(quán)重模型計(jì)算公共因子中各因素的重要度，進(jìn)而得到事故主要影響因素。 最后，在特大惡性事故主要影響因素中，采用C4.5決策樹(shù)算法，建立死亡人數(shù)和致死率決策樹(shù)模型，從死亡人數(shù)和致死率兩個(gè)角度對(duì)事故進(jìn)行深入分析，為提出預(yù)防對(duì)策，降低特大惡性事故的嚴(yán)重程度提供了依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the rapid and effective development of our country's economy, our country's road traffic industry has made great progress, but our country has entered the peak period of road traffic accident.In particular, the fatality rate of a serious traffic accident with more than 10 people dead is about 50. Compared with the fatality rate of about 20 percent of the country's road traffic accidents, the consequences of the extremely serious traffic accidents are even worse.So it is of great significance to analyze the serious traffic accidents in depth in order to improve the safety level.In this paper, an accident database is established from the point of view of the influencing factors of the serious road traffic accidents. Two kinds of data mining methods, factor analysis and decision tree, are used to analyze the serious traffic accidents comprehensively and deeply.Firstly, 250 cases of serious accidents in China from 2005 to 2012 were collected, and the database of extremely serious traffic accidents was established, and the characteristics of these accidents were statistically analyzed, and the distribution rules of such accidents were effectively grasped.Secondly, the influence factors of the serious accident are analyzed, and the main factors are found out.The factor analysis model is established in the factors affecting people, vehicles, roads and environment. The common factors are obtained by factor analysis, and the importance of each factor in common factors is calculated by the weight model, and then the main influencing factors of accidents are obtained.Finally, C4.5 decision tree algorithm is used to establish the decision tree model of death and fatality rate among the major influencing factors of the serious malignant accident. In order to put forward the preventive measures, the paper makes a deep analysis of the accident from the two angles of death and fatality.It provides the basis for reducing the severity of serious accidents.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U491.31

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