發(fā)布時間：2018-04-12 22:26

  本文選題：水上交通復雜度 + 聚類分析　； 參考：《武漢理工大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來，隨著經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易的快速發(fā)展，我國水路貨運量和貨物周轉(zhuǎn)量持續(xù)穩(wěn)步增長，水上交通日趨繁榮。然而，水上交通流密集化、多樣化和船舶大型化、高速化的發(fā)展，使得水域通航環(huán)境日趨復雜，船舶安全航行的風險不斷增加，水上交通管理難度進一步增大。為了保障船舶通航安全，科學地認識水上交通流迫在眉睫。 水上交通流理論是認識水上交通、指導水上交通管理的基礎(chǔ)理論。復雜性研究是交通流領(lǐng)域近年來研究的熱點和趨勢，但目前在水上交通流領(lǐng)域，對交通流的復雜性和非線性等特征的研究還相對較少。而在水上交通快速發(fā)展的背景下，交通流的非線性和不確定性日益明顯。因此，以復雜的視角重新認識水上交通流，深入研究水上交通流非線性和復雜性尤為必要。 論文以水上交通流系統(tǒng)為研究對象，分析了水上交通流系統(tǒng)的復雜性，論證了水上交通流系統(tǒng)是一個復雜系統(tǒng)，并給出了水上交通流的認知復雜度和本質(zhì)復雜度的定義。結(jié)合水上交通流復雜度的定義，分析了水上交通流的認知復雜性和本質(zhì)復雜性，從不同的視角分別建立了水上交通流宏觀復雜度模型（認知復雜度模型）和水上交通流微觀復雜度模型（本質(zhì)復雜度模型），通過模擬交通流驗證了復雜度模型的有效性。本論文的主要成果可以概括為： 一、論文通過分析水上交通流系統(tǒng)的復雜現(xiàn)象，從認知論和本質(zhì)論兩個角度出發(fā)，分析了水上交通流系統(tǒng)的認知復雜性和本質(zhì)復雜性，并論證了交通流系統(tǒng)是一個復雜系統(tǒng)，提出了水上交通流認知復雜度的定義和本質(zhì)復雜度的定義。通過本質(zhì)復雜度與碰撞危險度（SCR）概念的對比分析，得到：本質(zhì)復雜度概念包含了碰撞危險度的概念；通過與系統(tǒng)安全概念的對比分析，得到：無論是認知復雜度還是本質(zhì)復雜度都是一種對水上交通流狀態(tài)描述的指標，其目的是保障水上交通流系統(tǒng)的安全。 二、水上交通流宏觀復雜度模型 論文以水上宏觀交通流為研究對象，根據(jù)水上交通流認知復雜度的定義，構(gòu)建了交通管理者視角下的水上交通流宏觀復雜度模型。提出了水上交通流宏觀復雜度計算的六個步驟： （1）運用聚類分析法，將運動特征相似、相對位置較近的若干船舶視為一個交通簇；（2）根據(jù)交通流的歷史數(shù)據(jù)，建立交通流歷史速度場；（3）計算交通簇內(nèi)，交通簇的聚集復雜度；（4）計算由于交通簇速度異常，引起的速度特征復雜度；（5）計算由于交通簇位置偏離航道，，引起的密度特征復雜度；（6）以復雜度地圖的形式展示水上交通流復雜度的空間分布。 通過模擬交通流的驗證表明，水上交通流宏觀復雜度模型能夠反映出區(qū)域交通流的認知難度的不同，并能用于識別區(qū)域交通流中的異常行為。 三、水上交通流微觀復雜度模型 論文以船舶的避碰行為為研究對象，根據(jù)水上交通流本質(zhì)復雜度的定義，建立了在本船視角下的微觀復雜度模型，用于衡量在避碰的不同階段，船舶之間相互影響的程度。 （1）沖突復雜度模型，是在沖突階段（相對距離大于1海里）衡量船舶之間相互影響的模型；它以相對距離、最小會遇距離（DCPA）和最小會遇時間（TCPA）為主要指標。通過多組實驗表明，沖突復雜度模型不僅能夠更好地為本船描述周圍的交通態(tài)勢，還能用于為尋找本船的避碰路徑。 （2）碰撞解脫模型，是在碰撞解脫階段（相對距離小于1海里）衡量兩船之間的相互影響；它通過考慮船舶的操縱性和避碰策略，構(gòu)造出船舶危險區(qū)，根據(jù)船舶危險區(qū)重疊的比例表征船舶之間的相互影響。
[Abstract]:In recent years , with the rapid development of economic and trade , our country waterway freight volume and cargo turnover continue to grow steadily , the water traffic is becoming more prosperous . However , the water traffic flow is more and more complex , the risk of ship safety sailing is increasing , the difficulty of water traffic management is increased further . In order to guarantee the ship navigation safety , it is urgent to know the water traffic flow scientifically .

Water traffic flow theory is the basic theory to recognize water traffic and guide water traffic management . The complexity research is the hot spot and trend of traffic flow field in recent years . However , in the background of the rapid development of water traffic , the nonlinearity and uncertainty of traffic flow are more and more obvious . Therefore , it is especially necessary to understand the water traffic flow in a complex angle of view , and to study the nonlinear and complexity of traffic flow in water .

Based on the water traffic flow system , this paper analyzes the complexity of the water traffic flow system , demonstrates that the water traffic flow system is a complex system , and gives the definition of the cognitive complexity and the essential complexity of the water traffic flow . Based on the definition of the complexity of the water traffic flow , the paper analyzes the cognitive complexity and the essence complexity of the water traffic flow , and establishes the macroscopic complexity model ( cognitive complexity model ) and the water traffic flow microscopic complexity model ( essence complexity model ) of the water traffic flow from different perspectives . The main results of this paper can be summarized as follows :

Firstly , through analyzing the complex phenomena of the water traffic flow system , the cognitive complexity and the essence complexity of the water traffic flow system are analyzed from two angles of cognitive theory and theory of essence . The definition of the cognitive complexity and the definition of the essential complexity of the traffic flow system are presented .
By contrast analysis with the concept of system security , it is found that both the cognitive complexity and the essential complexity are an index to describe the state of the water traffic flow , the purpose of which is to guarantee the safety of the water traffic flow system .

II . Macro Complexity Model of Water Traffic Flow

Based on the definition of water traffic flow ' s cognitive complexity , the paper constructs the macroscopic complexity model of water traffic flow under the view of traffic manager based on the definition of water traffic flow cognitive complexity . Six steps are put forward :

( 1 ) Using cluster analysis method , the moving characters are similar , and some ships with relatively close position are regarded as a traffic cluster ;
( 2 ) establishing a traffic flow historical speed field according to historical data of the traffic flow ;
( 3 ) calculating the aggregation complexity of the traffic cluster in the traffic cluster ;
( 4 ) calculating speed characteristic complexity caused by abnormal traffic cluster velocity ;
( 5 ) calculating the density characteristic complexity caused by the deviation of the position of the traffic cluster from the channel ;
and ( 6 ) displaying the spatial distribution of the complexity of the water traffic flow in the form of a complexity map .

The simulation of the simulated traffic flow shows that the macroscopic complexity model of the water traffic flow can reflect the different cognitive difficulty of the regional traffic flow and can be used to identify the abnormal behavior in the regional traffic flow .

3 . Micro - complexity model of water traffic flow

Based on the definition of the essential complexity of the water traffic flow , the paper establishes a microscopic complexity model under the view of the ship , which is used to measure the degree of mutual influence between ships in different stages of collision avoidance .

( 1 ) Conflict complexity model is a model to measure the interaction between ships during the conflict phase ( relative distance is more than 1 nautical mile ) ;
Based on the relative distance , the minimum meeting distance ( DCPA ) and the minimum meeting time ( TCPA ) , it is shown that the conflict complexity model not only can better describe the traffic situation around the ship , but also can be used to find the collision avoidance path of the ship .

( 2 ) The collision detachment model is the measure of the interaction between the two vessels during the collision detachment stage ( relative distance less than 1 nautical mile ) ;
The ship ' s maneuverability and collision avoidance strategy are taken into consideration , and the ship ' s dangerous area is constructed , and the interaction between ships is characterized according to the proportion of the ship ' s dangerous areas .

【學位授予單位】：武漢理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U692

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