發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-11 05:14

  本文選題：南非 + 柑橘出口��； 參考：《中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：南非的柑橘產(chǎn)業(yè)從一開始就被定位為出口導(dǎo)向型產(chǎn)業(yè)。多年來,南非的柑橘產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)成功地在世界不同的出口國(guó)家和地區(qū)中占有巨大的市場(chǎng)份額。而這巨大的市場(chǎng)份額是通過突破有著嚴(yán)格貿(mào)易限制的不同類型的市場(chǎng)來實(shí)現(xiàn)的。近些年來,南非柑橘出口商開始不斷尋找新的有良好準(zhǔn)入條件市場(chǎng),并仍取得了豐厚的利潤(rùn)。作為世界柑橘的重要輸出國(guó),南非柑橘出口商對(duì)金磚國(guó)家近年來經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)和人口規(guī)模的持續(xù)上升所帶來的出口機(jī)會(huì)給予高度關(guān)注,出口商們想要獲得金磚國(guó)家市場(chǎng)的大部分份額。因此,這項(xiàng)研究的目的是通過識(shí)別和分析影響柑橘出口量的一系列因素,來評(píng)估南非柑橘出口到其他金磚國(guó)家的貿(mào)易潛力。本研究以1999-2013年的柑橘貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)作為分析對(duì)象,采用引力模型和時(shí)間序列分析法對(duì)作為分析方法。通過文獻(xiàn)查詢,我們了解到引力模型在實(shí)證經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)迄今為止最偉大的內(nèi)容之一,它同時(shí)也被證明符合貿(mào)易的模型理論,已經(jīng)被廣泛應(yīng)用于國(guó)際貿(mào)易研究中。它能夠針對(duì)貿(mào)易國(guó)之間相互援助、限制所導(dǎo)致的雙邊貿(mào)易流通問題,做出清晰解析。定量研究結(jié)果顯示,在當(dāng)前南非與其他金磚國(guó)家的柑橘貿(mào)易流通中,有許多阻礙貿(mào)易流通的因素。南非出口其他金磚國(guó)家的幾乎所有的柑橘品種都顯示出關(guān)稅的測(cè)度對(duì)出口量的減少非常顯著。值得注意的是,限制貿(mào)易出口的不僅僅是關(guān)稅,匯率波動(dòng)也是限制貿(mào)易流通的一個(gè)主要元素。另一方面,分析顯示金磚國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)總量和人口也會(huì)影響南非的柑橘出口。通過結(jié)論總結(jié),對(duì)南非與其他金磚國(guó)家的柑橘貿(mào)易提出一些建議,這將影響到南非柑橘出口戰(zhàn)略的制定,并將使得南非的柑橘在金磚國(guó)家獲得并維持很大的市場(chǎng)份額。對(duì)南非柑橘產(chǎn)業(yè)來說,要記住的是沒有普通消費(fèi)者,因此應(yīng)鼓勵(lì)提高農(nóng)產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量以及小農(nóng)戶增加對(duì)水果的加工。雖然南非的柑橘產(chǎn)業(yè)在業(yè)界擁有多元化的出口市場(chǎng),但還是應(yīng)鼓勵(lì)研究其他金磚國(guó)家的市場(chǎng)的消費(fèi)者偏好。為了進(jìn)一步學(xué)習(xí)研究,建議把重點(diǎn)放在非關(guān)稅措施上,如食品安全標(biāo)準(zhǔn)對(duì)南非柑橘出口到其他金磚國(guó)家的影響。在另一方面,這項(xiàng)研究并沒有對(duì)加工的產(chǎn)品進(jìn)行分析,加工產(chǎn)品的分析可能會(huì)幫助分析市場(chǎng)份額的虧損互補(bǔ)。因此,南非柑橘產(chǎn)業(yè)這項(xiàng)研究也為其他方面的研究提出了更多的信息。
[Abstract]:South Africa's citrus industry has been positioned as an export-oriented industry from the start. Over the years, South Africa's citrus industry has succeeded in taking large market share in different export countries and regions of the world. This huge market share is achieved by breaking through different types of markets with strict trade restrictions. In recent years, South African citrus exporters have been looking for new markets with good market access, and are still making substantial profits. As a major exporter of citrus in the world, South African citrus exporters have attached great importance to the export opportunities of the BRICS countries as a result of their rapid economic growth and continued population growth in recent years. Exporters want most of the BRICS market share. Therefore, the aim of this study is to assess the trade potential of South African citrus exports to other BRICS countries by identifying and analysing a range of factors affecting citrus exports. In this study, the citrus trade data from 1999 to 2013 were used as the analysis object, and the gravity model and time series analysis were used as the analysis methods. Through literature research, we know that gravity model is one of the greatest contents in empirical economics so far, and it has been proved to be in line with the trade model theory, which has been widely used in the research of international trade. It can provide a clear analysis of bilateral trade flows caused by mutual aid and restrictions between trading countries. Quantitative research shows that there are many obstacles to the current citrus trade flows between South Africa and other BRICS countries. Almost all of South Africa's citrus exports to other BRICS countries show a significant reduction in exports measured by tariffs. It is worth noting that restrictions on trade exports are not only tariffs, but also exchange rate fluctuations are a major constraint on trade flows. On the other hand, analysis shows that the size and population of the BRICS economies also affect South Africa's citrus exports. In conclusion, some suggestions are put forward for South Africa's citrus trade with other BRICS countries, which will affect the formulation of South African citrus export strategy and enable South African citrus to gain and maintain a large market share in BRICS countries. For the citrus industry in South Africa, it is important to keep in mind that there are no ordinary consumers, and therefore should be encouraged to improve the quality of agricultural products and to increase the processing of fruit by small farmers. While South Africa's citrus industry has diversified export markets in the industry, it should be encouraged to study consumer preferences in other BRICS markets. For further study, it is recommended to focus on non-tariff measures, such as the impact of food safety standards on South African citrus exports to other BRICS countries. On the other hand, the study does not analyze processed products, which may help to analyze the complementary loss of market share. Therefore, the South African citrus industry this study also provides more information for other studies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F313.7;F754.7
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本文編號(hào)：1872544