發(fā)布時間：2018-05-23 22:35

  本文選題：中國 + 能源系統(tǒng)轉(zhuǎn)型��； 參考：《蘭州大學》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)過近三十多年來的快速發(fā)展,中國現(xiàn)在是世界上最大的能源消費和二氧化碳排放國,其碳減排將對全球減排路徑和實現(xiàn)國際“氣候公約”的目標產(chǎn)生巨大的影響。為應(yīng)對這一責任,中國承諾在2030年左右達到碳排放峰值,同時使非化石能源占一次能源消費比重達到20%左右。與此同時,中國正處于社會經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵時期,面對發(fā)展和環(huán)保的兩難困境,實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟增長和環(huán)境問題的“解耦”成為中國綠色發(fā)展的重大課題。其中的關(guān)鍵問題就是如何基于可再生能源實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)的能源系統(tǒng)轉(zhuǎn)型。在此背景下,本文做了以下工作:1)梳理了我國能源系統(tǒng)轉(zhuǎn)型的資源基礎(chǔ)和背景;借鑒國際上能源系統(tǒng)轉(zhuǎn)型案例,梳理國內(nèi)節(jié)能減排的實踐,分析存在的問題,總結(jié)對我國未來能源系統(tǒng)轉(zhuǎn)型有益的經(jīng)驗,為后文分析提供基礎(chǔ);2)針對我國應(yīng)對氣候變化的國際承諾,論證了我國碳排放的峰值節(jié)點和邊界條件。我們假設(shè),當經(jīng)濟增長帶來的增排效應(yīng)與能源結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和用能技術(shù)進步產(chǎn)生的減排效應(yīng)達到均衡時,中國碳排放將達到峰點。通過對宏觀時間序列數(shù)據(jù)的分析,運用三種不同的預(yù)測模型模擬了中國能源-環(huán)境-經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)變動的趨勢和特點,估算出不同變量對能源系統(tǒng)轉(zhuǎn)型的影響,評估了幾種實現(xiàn)減排目標的可行情景。3)以可再生能源大省甘肅省為研究對象,應(yīng)用能源系統(tǒng)模擬模型EnergyPLAN估算了環(huán)境優(yōu)先和經(jīng)濟優(yōu)先兩種情景下,對能源系統(tǒng)轉(zhuǎn)型路徑進行了實際案例分析,并提出了在發(fā)展和消納可再生能源時的保障條件。論文得到了以下結(jié)論:1.以2005年人均購買力為單位的不變美元價格為計算基礎(chǔ),從1990年到2013年,中國的能源強度從1.59 kgoe/$下降到0.63kgoe/$,清潔能源的份額從4.18%上升到9.61%,在全球碳減排方面發(fā)揮了重要作用。在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、能源結(jié)構(gòu)升級和用能技術(shù)進步三個變量的不同組合水平下,如果保持經(jīng)濟高速發(fā)展(GDP年增長率保持在7.6%以上),則中國在2030年前難以達到峰值。在經(jīng)濟中速發(fā)展(GDP增長率以0.05%的年速率遞減)的情況下,中國將在2032年和2034年出現(xiàn)三個可實現(xiàn)的排放峰值情景。屆時,CO2將達到11155-13205.6萬噸,比2013年基準高9.01-29.05%;其他污染物排放將比2013年基準高出5-30%;能源強度的范圍為0.219-0.26 kgoe/$,清潔能源份額在17.75-20.54%之間。屆時,中國能基本實現(xiàn)其能源轉(zhuǎn)型的初步目標。如果經(jīng)濟低速發(fā)展,中國雖能在2030年前達到碳排放峰點,但難以實現(xiàn)全面建成小康社會的目標。2.分析表明在現(xiàn)階段,技術(shù)進步的減排效應(yīng)遠大于結(jié)構(gòu)升級的效應(yīng)。把能源強度下降作為技術(shù)進步的測度,其減排貢獻占總量的87.5%,而能源結(jié)構(gòu)升級的減排貢獻只有5.0%,其余部分是二者的互作效應(yīng)。但從長遠來看,能源結(jié)構(gòu)升級的作用在逐步增強,并能最終推動能源系統(tǒng)的低碳轉(zhuǎn)型。與發(fā)達國家相比,中國具有巨大的節(jié)能減排潛力,但需要積極推進能源系統(tǒng)的轉(zhuǎn)型,才可能兼顧經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和環(huán)境保護兩方面的目標。3.甘肅省在現(xiàn)行規(guī)劃順利實施的情況下,可在2020年基本上能實現(xiàn)能源系統(tǒng)轉(zhuǎn)型的階段性目標。到2030年碳排放能夠保持在2014年水平上。在近期(2020年),無論是環(huán)境優(yōu)先還是經(jīng)濟優(yōu)先,兩種情景下一次能源消費量(不含電力)差距不大,分別為728.67 TWh和731.96 TWh;非化石能源占一次能源消費份額變化也不大,分別為12.70%和12.60%;可再生能源占電力生產(chǎn)份額達到61.1%,能源系統(tǒng)系統(tǒng)的年均總成本分別為1902.1和1899.4億元。到2030年,兩種情景下的結(jié)果差異變大,一次能源消費量(不含電力)分別為694.07 TWh和716.33TWh;非化石能源占一次能源消費份額分別為19.20%和18.70%;甘肅省可再生能源占電力生產(chǎn)份額為63.7%,能源系統(tǒng)系統(tǒng)的年均總成本為2224.5和2214.1億元。4.在火電角色轉(zhuǎn)入積極調(diào)峰角色的情況下,甘肅省在未來2020年到2030年均無過剩電力產(chǎn)生,現(xiàn)行規(guī)劃中的新增大量可再生能源能被充分消納。在近期的路徑選擇上,應(yīng)著重投資改造供應(yīng)側(cè)與消費側(cè)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè),著重提高供熱效率,并保證到2020年和2030年電網(wǎng)建設(shè)容量不少于18000MW和32000MW。5.基于以上分析,本文建議:(1)要積極創(chuàng)造條件,促使技術(shù)進步和能源結(jié)構(gòu)升級的減排效益的充分發(fā)揮,使其超過GDP增長帶來的增排效益。要加大投資和政策支持,加快清潔能源的開發(fā),改造高耗能產(chǎn)業(yè),促進技術(shù)創(chuàng)新,著力提高能源效率,探索可持續(xù)能源系統(tǒng)轉(zhuǎn)型的途徑。(2)促進管理體制變革,加強政策調(diào)控。使可再生能源企業(yè)適應(yīng)市場機制的運行,實現(xiàn)由國家價格補貼的驅(qū)動到自我競爭力提高的平穩(wěn)過渡。鼓勵企業(yè)通過降低成本、提高效益來增強生存能力。通過政策引導來可再生能源的降低投資風險、疏通清潔能源的發(fā)展瓶頸。(3)完善能源基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的建設(shè),建造大規(guī)模、遠距離、特高壓輸電線路,把豐富的可再生資源輸送到人口產(chǎn)業(yè)集中的中東部地區(qū)。在資源產(chǎn)地增加儲能設(shè)備,推進電網(wǎng)的智能化改造,提高調(diào)峰填谷的能力。(4)在經(jīng)濟欠發(fā)達的西部地區(qū),通過可再生能源的開發(fā)利用,將其資源優(yōu)勢轉(zhuǎn)化為經(jīng)濟競爭優(yōu)勢。同時要加快工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整,擴大熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)技術(shù)的規(guī)模,推廣節(jié)能建筑,有序增加可再生能源的裝機容量,推進綠色轉(zhuǎn)型。
[Abstract]:After nearly thirty years of rapid development, China is now the largest energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission country in the world. Its carbon emission reduction will have a great impact on the global emission reduction path and the goal of realizing the international "climate convention". At the same time, China is in the key period of social and economic transformation and development. In the face of the dilemma of development and environmental protection, the "decoupling" of economic growth and environmental problems has become a major issue in China's green development. The key problem is how to base on renewable energy. To realize the sustainable energy system transformation. Under this background, this paper has done the following work: 1) combing the resources basis and background of China's energy system transformation, drawing on the international energy system transformation cases, combing the practice of energy saving and emission reduction at home, analyzing the existing problems, summarizing the useful experience of China's future energy system transformation, for the later article. The analysis provides the basis; 2) in view of our country's international commitment to climate change, the peak nodes and boundary conditions of China's carbon emissions are demonstrated. We assume that China's carbon emissions will reach a peak when the increasing effect of the economic growth and the energy structure adjustment and the emission reduction effects produced by the technological progress will reach the peak. The analysis of inter sequence data, using three different forecasting models to simulate the trend and characteristics of China's energy environment economic system change, estimated the influence of different variables on the transformation of energy system, and evaluated several feasible scenarios to achieve the target of emission reduction, which is based on the Gansu province of renewable energy province, Gansu Province, and applied the energy system model. The quasi model EnergyPLAN estimates the two scenarios of environmental priority and economic priority, and carries out a practical case analysis on the transformation path of the energy system, and puts forward the guarantee conditions for the development and elimination of renewable energy. The following conclusions are obtained: 1. the price of the constant dollar per unit of per capita purchasing power in 2005 is the basis of the calculation, from 1990 From 2013 to 2013, China's energy intensity dropped from 1.59 kgoe/$to 0.63kgoe/$, and the share of clean energy increased from 4.18% to 9.61%, and played an important role in global carbon reduction. At the different levels of economic development, energy structure upgrading and the use of energy technology progress, if the economic growth rate was maintained at a high speed (GDP annual growth rate) Keeping it above 7.6%), China is difficult to reach its peak before 2030. With the economic medium speed development (GDP growth rate decreases at 0.05% annual rate), China will have three possible peak emission peaks in 2032 and 2034. At that time, the CO2 will reach 11155-13205.6 million tons, 9.01-29.05% higher than the 2013 benchmark; and other pollutants emissions will be released. It will be 5-30% higher than the 2013 benchmark; the energy intensity range is 0.219-0.26 kgoe/$, and the clean energy share is between 17.75-20.54%. China can basically achieve its initial target of energy transformation. If the economy develops at low speed, China can reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030, but it is difficult to achieve the target.2. of a well-off society in an all-round way. The analysis shows that at this stage, the emission reduction effect of technological progress is far greater than the effect of structural upgrading. As a measure of technological progress, the contribution of energy intensity decline is 87.5% of the total amount, while the contribution of energy structure upgrading is only 5%, the rest is the mutual effect of the two, but in the long run, the role of energy structure upgrading is in the competition. Bu Zengqiang, and can eventually promote the low carbon transformation of the energy system. Compared with the developed countries, China has great energy saving and emission reduction potential, but it needs to actively promote the transformation of the energy system in order to take into account the goal of two aspects of economic development and environmental protection.3.. In the case of the successful implementation of the current regulations, the Gansu province can basically be in 2020. To achieve the phased goal of the transformation of the energy system. By 2030, carbon emissions can be maintained at the level of 2014. In the near future (2020), whether it is environmental priority or economic priority, the next energy consumption (no power) gap is not large in the two scenarios, 728.67 TWh and 731.96 TWh, respectively; non fossil energy accounts for a change in the share of energy consumption. Not much, 12.70% and 12.60% respectively; renewable energy accounted for 61.1% of the power production share, and the total annual total cost of the energy system system was 1902.1 and 189 billion 940 million yuan respectively. By 2030, the difference in the results of the two scenarios increased, and the primary energy consumption (without electricity) was 694.07 TWh and 716.33TWh, and the non fossil energy accounted for one energy dissipation. The share of the fee is 19.20% and 18.70%, the share of renewable energy in Gansu is 63.7%. The annual total cost of the energy system system is 2224.5 and 221 billion 410 million yuan.4. is transferred to the positive peak role of the thermal power role. In the future, there is no surplus power in the future from 2020 to 2030 in Gansu province. In the near future, we should focus on the infrastructure construction of the supply side and the consumption side, improve the efficiency of heating, and ensure that the capacity of the power grid construction in 2020 and 2030 is not less than 18000MW and 32000MW.5. based on the above analysis. This paper suggests: (1) to actively create conditions to promote technological progress and The emission reduction benefit of the energy structure upgrading is fully played, making it more effective than the GDP growth. We should increase investment and policy support, accelerate the development of clean energy, transform high energy consumption industry, promote technological innovation, improve energy efficiency and explore the way of sustainable energy system transformation. (2) promote management system reform and strengthen politics. Policy regulation. Make renewable energy enterprises adapt to the operation of market mechanism, realize the smooth transition from state price subsidy to self competitive improvement. Encourage enterprises to enhance their survival ability by reducing cost and improving efficiency. Through policy guidance, the investment risk of renewable energy is reduced and the bottleneck of development of clean energy is dredged. (3) Improve the construction of energy infrastructure, build large-scale, long distance, UHV transmission lines, transport rich renewable resources to the Central East region of the population industry. Increase the energy storage equipment, promote the intelligent transformation of the power grid, and improve the ability to adjust the peak and fill the valley in the resource areas. (4) in the economically underdeveloped western region, it can be used again. The development and utilization of raw energy will transform its resource advantage into economic competitive advantage. At the same time, it is necessary to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure, expand the scale of cogeneration technology, promote energy saving building, increase the installed capacity of renewable energy in order, and promote the green transformation.
【學位授予單位】：蘭州大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.2

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