發(fā)布時間：2018-05-27 11:05

  本文選題：能源與環(huán)境約束 + 經濟增長源泉��； 參考：《遼寧大學》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：“經濟增長”是宏觀經濟學的研究核心,是世界近代經濟發(fā)展史上極具魅力的研究領域。伴隨著人類經濟活動規(guī)模的擴大和經濟環(huán)境的復雜化,經濟增長理論因循著經濟發(fā)展實踐的需要不斷演化,至今,對于經濟增長要素及動力源泉的研究依然不斷拓展和深化,能源與環(huán)境因素也越來越多的被引入到增長分析框架中。能源、經濟、環(huán)境系統三者之間相互依存、相互影響、相互制約,在可持續(xù)的發(fā)展空間中,資源與環(huán)境不僅是經濟發(fā)展的內生變量,而且是經濟發(fā)展規(guī)模和速度的剛性約束。改革開放37年來,中國經濟高速增長所附帶的巨量能源消耗和高昂環(huán)境成本致使能源-經濟-環(huán)境系統發(fā)展失調,能源與環(huán)境系統對經濟系統的反制效應逐漸強化,再加上傳統經濟增長驅動力的逐漸衰減、制造業(yè)技術溢出瓶頸凸顯、第三產業(yè)技術進步相對滯緩,經濟增長的可持續(xù)性難以為繼。上述背景下,如何科學認識區(qū)域能源、經濟、環(huán)境三大子系統之間的協同互動規(guī)律,如何定量解構能源、經濟、環(huán)境系統的內生關系并估算能源與環(huán)境系統對經濟增長的反制效應,如何測度能源環(huán)境約束下中國經濟增長源泉的貢獻與變動趨勢,如何準確把握不同省份經濟增長源泉的構成與變遷,如何加快推動增長源泉動力轉換、形成節(jié)能減排與經濟增長雙贏的促進機制等一系列問題已經成為理論界亟待破解的時代命題,這也正是文章的研究主旨和擬解決的關鍵問題。文章在對中國能源-經濟-環(huán)境系統發(fā)展狀況、中國經濟增長的特征事實進行詳盡刻畫的基礎上,運用計量經濟方法,經驗分析與理論探討、靜態(tài)分析與動態(tài)分析、定性與定量分析方法相結合,圍繞關鍵問題展開研究。所做工作和主要結論如下：中國能源-經濟-環(huán)境系統發(fā)展失衡,系統間耦合協調度低。在對能源-經濟-環(huán)境系統內生關系進行界定的基礎上,分別從時間、空間和部門維度解析了中國三大系統的發(fā)展現狀,構建能源-經濟-環(huán)境系統協調度評價指標體系和協調度綜合評價模型對中國三大系統耦合協調度進行了定量評價。結論表明：考察時序區(qū)間內,能源-經濟-環(huán)境系統發(fā)展整體耦合協調度均值低,處于嚴重不協調狀態(tài)的邊緣；能源-經濟系統發(fā)展耦合協調度均值相對較高,處于弱協調狀態(tài)；環(huán)境-經濟系統發(fā)展的耦合協調度均值極低,處于嚴重不協調狀態(tài)。但是,“十二五”時期以來,各協調度指數均呈現出不同程度的回升,初步判斷,早期中國經濟系統的快速發(fā)展并未顧及與環(huán)境系統的協調。中國能源與環(huán)境系統對經濟增長的反制效應逐漸增強,轉換經濟增長源泉是逆轉系統間負反饋作用的關鍵突破口。根據能源-經濟-環(huán)境系統的互動內生機理構建了聯立方程模型,對中國能源-經濟-環(huán)境系統的內生關系進行了定量檢驗與定性分析,并在此基礎估算和解析了能源與環(huán)境系統對經濟增長的反制效應。具體結論是：單位GDP能耗、能源加工轉化率、工業(yè)化進程中的產業(yè)結構演進、城市化水平、經濟系統規(guī)模、環(huán)境系統污染因子的變動均會引起能源消費總量增長；能源消費總量的增長、年終從業(yè)人員數、社會固定資產投資均會引起經濟系統規(guī)模的同方向變化,而環(huán)境污染因子變動會引致經濟系統規(guī)模的反向變化；能源消費結構狀態(tài)值、工業(yè)固體廢棄物綜合利用率的變動會引起環(huán)境污染因子的反向變化,而能源系統和經濟系統規(guī)模的變動會引致環(huán)境污染因子同方向變動；GDP、能源消費總量持續(xù)高增長對環(huán)境系統產生的負面效應長期累積下來,環(huán)境系統對能源系統、經濟系統的反制效應逐漸增大。傳統要素投入的增長貢獻度明顯衰減,中國經濟增長源泉正在發(fā)生結構性轉換。在明確能源與環(huán)境約束下中國經濟增長源泉測度的建模思路、方法選擇以及基準經濟增長模型的基礎上,在內生增長理論框架下,從產出與投入兩個層面將能源與環(huán)境因素納入擴展的人力資本溢出模型,通過估計比較所設定的7類情景下各分兩種情形的14個計量經濟方程的適用性,篩定了強調人力資本內部效應和強調人力資本累積外溢效應的兩類模型,對驅動中國經濟增長的各類源泉的產出彈性、貢獻度、構成與變遷進行了估計、測度和分解。結論表明：能源與環(huán)境問題對經濟增長的抑制效應日趨顯著,能源環(huán)境約束下傳統要素投入的增長貢獻度持續(xù)衰減,全要素生產率變動的增長貢獻度明顯提高,全要素生產率提高的驅動因素構成正在轉換等。中國省際經濟增長源泉結構差異較大,且階段性波動明顯。采用1990-2014年間的省際面板數據,對各省經濟增長源泉進行測度與分解,并對能源與環(huán)境約束下省際增長源泉的構成與變動進行了綜合比較評價。結論表明：選定的30個樣本省份增長源泉構成差距大,在1990-1996年、1997-2008年、2009-2014年三個時段內各類增長源泉貢獻度波動明顯,物質資本積累依然是推動經濟增長的第一大源泉,大部分省勞動投入貢獻度下滑,環(huán)境投入、創(chuàng)新投入對增長的貢獻度明顯提升。在對研究過程遇到的主要問題進行反思的基礎上,結合理論與實證分析的主要結論,指出培育產業(yè)共生網絡、形成節(jié)能減排與產業(yè)結構演進良性互動機制、促進經濟增長主要源泉的轉換是中國經濟突破能源與環(huán)境約束、實現節(jié)能減排與經濟增長雙贏、促進能源-經濟-環(huán)境系統協調發(fā)展的根本路徑。
[Abstract]:"Economic growth" is the core of the study of macroeconomics. It is a very attractive research field in the history of modern economic development in the world. With the expansion of the scale of human economic activity and the complexity of the economic environment, the theory of economic growth has been evolving on the basis of the need of economic development practice. Research continues to expand and deepen, and energy and environmental factors are increasingly being introduced into the framework of growth analysis. Energy, economy, and environmental systems are interdependent, interdependent, and interdependent. In the sustainable development space, resources and environment are not only endogenous variables of economic development, but also the scale of economic development and the scale of economic development. In the past 37 years of reform and opening up, the huge amount of energy consumption and high environmental costs associated with China's rapid economic growth have resulted in the imbalance in the development of the energy economy environment system. The effect of the energy and environmental system on the economic system is gradually strengthened, and the driving force of traditional economic growth gradually attenuates, and the technology of manufacturing is overflowing. The bottlenecks are highlighted, the third industry is relatively slow in technological progress and the sustainability of economic growth is unsustainable. Under the above background, how to scientifically understand the coordination and interaction between the three subsystems of regional energy, economy and environment, how to deconstruct the endogenous relationship of energy, economy, environmental system and to estimate the economic growth of the energy and environment system How to measure the contribution and change trend of the source of China's economic growth under the constraints of energy environment, how to accurately grasp the composition and change of the source of economic growth in different provinces, how to speed up the dynamic transformation of the source of growth, and form the promotion mechanism of double win of energy saving and economic growth have become a series of problems. On the basis of the detailed description of the development of China's energy economy environment system and the characteristics of China's economic growth, the paper uses econometric methods, empirical analysis and theoretical discussion, static analysis and dynamic analysis, on the basis of the detailed description of the characteristics of China's economic growth. The qualitative and quantitative analysis methods are combined to study the key issues. The work and main conclusions are as follows: the development of China's energy economy environment system is unbalanced and the coupling degree of the system is low. On the basis of the definition of the endogenous relationship in the energy economy environment system, the separation is analyzed from time, space and department dimension. The development status of the three systems and the construction of the energy economic environment system coordination evaluation index system and the coordination degree comprehensive evaluation model are used to evaluate the coupling coordination degree of the three systems in China. The conclusion shows that the overall coupling coordination degree of the energy economic environment system development is low and is in a serious incongruity in the time sequence interval. The coupling coordination degree of the energy economic system development is relatively high, in the weak coordination state, and the coupling coordination degree of the environmental economic system development is very low and is in a serious incoordination state. However, since the "12th Five-Year" period, the co scheduling index has shown a different degree of recovery, preliminary judgment, early China classics The rapid development of the economic system has not taken into account the coordination with the environmental system. The effect of China's energy and environmental system on economic growth is gradually enhanced, and the source of the transformation of economic growth is the key breakthrough in reversing the negative feedback effect of the system. A simultaneous equation model is constructed according to the interaction of energy economy environment system and China. The endogenous relationship between the energy economy environment system is quantified and qualitative analysis is carried out, and the inverse effect of energy and environmental system on economic growth is estimated and analyzed on this basis. The specific conclusions are as follows: unit GDP energy consumption, energy processing conversion rate, industrial structure evolution in the process of industrialization, urbanization level, economic system scale, ring The change of environmental pollution factors will cause the increase of total energy consumption; the growth of the total energy consumption, the number of employees at the end of the year and the investment in social fixed assets will cause the same direction change in the scale of the economic system, and the change of the environmental pollution factor will lead to the reverse change of the scale of the economic system; the state of energy consumption structure, industry The changes in the comprehensive utilization of solid waste will cause the reverse change of the environmental pollution factors, and the changes in the scale of the energy system and the economic system will lead to the change of the environmental pollution factors in the same direction; GDP, the negative effects of the continuous high growth of energy consumption on the environmental system, the environmental system to the energy system and the economy. The anti system effect of the system is gradually increasing. The growth contribution of traditional factor input is obviously attenuated, and the source of China's economic growth is undergoing structural transformation. On the basis of the modeling idea, method selection and the benchmark economic growth model under the constraints of energy and environment, the theory of endogenous growth is based on the theoretical framework of endogenous growth. From the two levels of output and input, energy and environmental factors are incorporated into the extended human capital spillover model. By estimating the applicability of 14 econometric equations in two scenarios under the 7 scenarios set in comparison, two types of models which emphasize the internal effects of human capital and the cumulative spillover effect of human capital are sifting. The output elasticity, contribution, composition and change of various sources of China's economic growth are estimated, measured and decomposed. The conclusion shows that the inhibition effect of energy and environment on economic growth is becoming more and more significant, the contribution degree of the traditional factor input is continued to decline and the contribution of the total factor productivity changes under the energy environment constraints. Obviously, the driving factors of the increase in total factor productivity are changing and so on. The structure of China's inter provincial economic growth source has a great difference, and the phase fluctuation is obvious. Using the interprovincial panel data of 1990-2014 years to measure and decompose the source of economic growth in all provinces and the composition of the source of inter provincial growth under the constraints of energy and environment. The results show that the growth source of the selected 30 sample provinces constitutes a big gap, and the contribution of all kinds of growth sources fluctuates obviously in 1990-1996, 1997-2008, 2009-2014 years and three periods, and the accumulation of material capital is still the first major source of economic growth, and the contribution of most of the provinces is the contribution of labor. On the basis of reflection on the main problems encountered in the research process and the main conclusions of the theoretical and empirical analysis, it is pointed out that the cultivation of the industrial symbiotic network can form a benign interaction mechanism of energy conservation and emission reduction and the evolution of the industrial structure and the main source of economic growth. It is the fundamental path for China's economy to break through the constraints of energy and environment, achieve a win-win situation of energy saving and emission reduction and economic growth, and promote the coordinated development of the energy, economy and environment system.
【學位授予單位】：遼寧大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F124

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