發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-27 11:05

  本文選題：能源與環(huán)境約束 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)源泉　； 參考：《遼寧大學(xué)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：“經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)”是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究核心,是世界近代經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展史上極具魅力的研究領(lǐng)域。伴隨著人類經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大和經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的復(fù)雜化,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論因循著經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展實(shí)踐的需要不斷演化,至今,對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)要素及動(dòng)力源泉的研究依然不斷拓展和深化,能源與環(huán)境因素也越來(lái)越多的被引入到增長(zhǎng)分析框架中。能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)、環(huán)境系統(tǒng)三者之間相互依存、相互影響、相互制約,在可持續(xù)的發(fā)展空間中,資源與環(huán)境不僅是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的內(nèi)生變量,而且是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展規(guī)模和速度的剛性約束。改革開(kāi)放37年來(lái),中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長(zhǎng)所附帶的巨量能源消耗和高昂環(huán)境成本致使能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境系統(tǒng)發(fā)展失調(diào),能源與環(huán)境系統(tǒng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的反制效應(yīng)逐漸強(qiáng)化,再加上傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)驅(qū)動(dòng)力的逐漸衰減、制造業(yè)技術(shù)溢出瓶頸凸顯、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步相對(duì)滯緩,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的可持續(xù)性難以為繼。上述背景下,如何科學(xué)認(rèn)識(shí)區(qū)域能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)、環(huán)境三大子系統(tǒng)之間的協(xié)同互動(dòng)規(guī)律,如何定量解構(gòu)能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)、環(huán)境系統(tǒng)的內(nèi)生關(guān)系并估算能源與環(huán)境系統(tǒng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的反制效應(yīng),如何測(cè)度能源環(huán)境約束下中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)源泉的貢獻(xiàn)與變動(dòng)趨勢(shì),如何準(zhǔn)確把握不同省份經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)源泉的構(gòu)成與變遷,如何加快推動(dòng)增長(zhǎng)源泉?jiǎng)恿�轉(zhuǎn)換、形成節(jié)能減排與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)雙贏的促進(jìn)機(jī)制等一系列問(wèn)題已經(jīng)成為理論界亟待破解的時(shí)代命題,這也正是文章的研究主旨和擬解決的關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題。文章在對(duì)中國(guó)能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境系統(tǒng)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r、中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的特征事實(shí)進(jìn)行詳盡刻畫的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)方法,經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析與理論探討、靜態(tài)分析與動(dòng)態(tài)分析、定性與定量分析方法相結(jié)合,圍繞關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題展開(kāi)研究。所做工作和主要結(jié)論如下：中國(guó)能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境系統(tǒng)發(fā)展失衡,系統(tǒng)間耦合協(xié)調(diào)度低。在對(duì)能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境系統(tǒng)內(nèi)生關(guān)系進(jìn)行界定的基礎(chǔ)上,分別從時(shí)間、空間和部門維度解析了中國(guó)三大系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,構(gòu)建能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系和協(xié)調(diào)度綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型對(duì)中國(guó)三大系統(tǒng)耦合協(xié)調(diào)度進(jìn)行了定量評(píng)價(jià)。結(jié)論表明：考察時(shí)序區(qū)間內(nèi),能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境系統(tǒng)發(fā)展整體耦合協(xié)調(diào)度均值低,處于嚴(yán)重不協(xié)調(diào)狀態(tài)的邊緣；能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)發(fā)展耦合協(xié)調(diào)度均值相對(duì)較高,處于弱協(xié)調(diào)狀態(tài)；環(huán)境-經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)發(fā)展的耦合協(xié)調(diào)度均值極低,處于嚴(yán)重不協(xié)調(diào)狀態(tài)。但是,“十二五”時(shí)期以來(lái),各協(xié)調(diào)度指數(shù)均呈現(xiàn)出不同程度的回升,初步判斷,早期中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的快速發(fā)展并未顧及與環(huán)境系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)。中國(guó)能源與環(huán)境系統(tǒng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的反制效應(yīng)逐漸增強(qiáng),轉(zhuǎn)換經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)源泉是逆轉(zhuǎn)系統(tǒng)間負(fù)反饋?zhàn)饔玫年P(guān)鍵突破口。根據(jù)能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境系統(tǒng)的互動(dòng)內(nèi)生機(jī)理構(gòu)建了聯(lián)立方程模型,對(duì)中國(guó)能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境系統(tǒng)的內(nèi)生關(guān)系進(jìn)行了定量檢驗(yàn)與定性分析,并在此基礎(chǔ)估算和解析了能源與環(huán)境系統(tǒng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的反制效應(yīng)。具體結(jié)論是：?jiǎn)挝籊DP能耗、能源加工轉(zhuǎn)化率、工業(yè)化進(jìn)程中的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)、城市化水平、經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)規(guī)模、環(huán)境系統(tǒng)污染因子的變動(dòng)均會(huì)引起能源消費(fèi)總量增長(zhǎng)；能源消費(fèi)總量的增長(zhǎng)、年終從業(yè)人員數(shù)、社會(huì)固定資產(chǎn)投資均會(huì)引起經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)規(guī)模的同方向變化,而環(huán)境污染因子變動(dòng)會(huì)引致經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)規(guī)模的反向變化；能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)狀態(tài)值、工業(yè)固體廢棄物綜合利用率的變動(dòng)會(huì)引起環(huán)境污染因子的反向變化,而能源系統(tǒng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)規(guī)模的變動(dòng)會(huì)引致環(huán)境污染因子同方向變動(dòng)；GDP、能源消費(fèi)總量持續(xù)高增長(zhǎng)對(duì)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)生的負(fù)面效應(yīng)長(zhǎng)期累積下來(lái),環(huán)境系統(tǒng)對(duì)能源系統(tǒng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的反制效應(yīng)逐漸增大。傳統(tǒng)要素投入的增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)度明顯衰減,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)源泉正在發(fā)生結(jié)構(gòu)性轉(zhuǎn)換。在明確能源與環(huán)境約束下中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)源泉測(cè)度的建模思路、方法選擇以及基準(zhǔn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模型的基礎(chǔ)上,在內(nèi)生增長(zhǎng)理論框架下,從產(chǎn)出與投入兩個(gè)層面將能源與環(huán)境因素納入擴(kuò)展的人力資本溢出模型,通過(guò)估計(jì)比較所設(shè)定的7類情景下各分兩種情形的14個(gè)計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)方程的適用性,篩定了強(qiáng)調(diào)人力資本內(nèi)部效應(yīng)和強(qiáng)調(diào)人力資本累積外溢效應(yīng)的兩類模型,對(duì)驅(qū)動(dòng)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的各類源泉的產(chǎn)出彈性、貢獻(xiàn)度、構(gòu)成與變遷進(jìn)行了估計(jì)、測(cè)度和分解。結(jié)論表明：能源與環(huán)境問(wèn)題對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的抑制效應(yīng)日趨顯著,能源環(huán)境約束下傳統(tǒng)要素投入的增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)度持續(xù)衰減,全要素生產(chǎn)率變動(dòng)的增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)度明顯提高,全要素生產(chǎn)率提高的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素構(gòu)成正在轉(zhuǎn)換等。中國(guó)省際經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)源泉結(jié)構(gòu)差異較大,且階段性波動(dòng)明顯。采用1990-2014年間的省際面板數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)各省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)源泉進(jìn)行測(cè)度與分解,并對(duì)能源與環(huán)境約束下省際增長(zhǎng)源泉的構(gòu)成與變動(dòng)進(jìn)行了綜合比較評(píng)價(jià)。結(jié)論表明：選定的30個(gè)樣本省份增長(zhǎng)源泉構(gòu)成差距大,在1990-1996年、1997-2008年、2009-2014年三個(gè)時(shí)段內(nèi)各類增長(zhǎng)源泉貢獻(xiàn)度波動(dòng)明顯,物質(zhì)資本積累依然是推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的第一大源泉,大部分省勞動(dòng)投入貢獻(xiàn)度下滑,環(huán)境投入、創(chuàng)新投入對(duì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)度明顯提升。在對(duì)研究過(guò)程遇到的主要問(wèn)題進(jìn)行反思的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合理論與實(shí)證分析的主要結(jié)論,指出培育產(chǎn)業(yè)共生網(wǎng)絡(luò)、形成節(jié)能減排與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)良性互動(dòng)機(jī)制、促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)主要源泉的轉(zhuǎn)換是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)突破能源與環(huán)境約束、實(shí)現(xiàn)節(jié)能減排與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)雙贏、促進(jìn)能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的根本路徑。
[Abstract]:"Economic growth" is the core of the study of macroeconomics. It is a very attractive research field in the history of modern economic development in the world. With the expansion of the scale of human economic activity and the complexity of the economic environment, the theory of economic growth has been evolving on the basis of the need of economic development practice. Research continues to expand and deepen, and energy and environmental factors are increasingly being introduced into the framework of growth analysis. Energy, economy, and environmental systems are interdependent, interdependent, and interdependent. In the sustainable development space, resources and environment are not only endogenous variables of economic development, but also the scale of economic development and the scale of economic development. In the past 37 years of reform and opening up, the huge amount of energy consumption and high environmental costs associated with China's rapid economic growth have resulted in the imbalance in the development of the energy economy environment system. The effect of the energy and environmental system on the economic system is gradually strengthened, and the driving force of traditional economic growth gradually attenuates, and the technology of manufacturing is overflowing. The bottlenecks are highlighted, the third industry is relatively slow in technological progress and the sustainability of economic growth is unsustainable. Under the above background, how to scientifically understand the coordination and interaction between the three subsystems of regional energy, economy and environment, how to deconstruct the endogenous relationship of energy, economy, environmental system and to estimate the economic growth of the energy and environment system How to measure the contribution and change trend of the source of China's economic growth under the constraints of energy environment, how to accurately grasp the composition and change of the source of economic growth in different provinces, how to speed up the dynamic transformation of the source of growth, and form the promotion mechanism of double win of energy saving and economic growth have become a series of problems. On the basis of the detailed description of the development of China's energy economy environment system and the characteristics of China's economic growth, the paper uses econometric methods, empirical analysis and theoretical discussion, static analysis and dynamic analysis, on the basis of the detailed description of the characteristics of China's economic growth. The qualitative and quantitative analysis methods are combined to study the key issues. The work and main conclusions are as follows: the development of China's energy economy environment system is unbalanced and the coupling degree of the system is low. On the basis of the definition of the endogenous relationship in the energy economy environment system, the separation is analyzed from time, space and department dimension. The development status of the three systems and the construction of the energy economic environment system coordination evaluation index system and the coordination degree comprehensive evaluation model are used to evaluate the coupling coordination degree of the three systems in China. The conclusion shows that the overall coupling coordination degree of the energy economic environment system development is low and is in a serious incongruity in the time sequence interval. The coupling coordination degree of the energy economic system development is relatively high, in the weak coordination state, and the coupling coordination degree of the environmental economic system development is very low and is in a serious incoordination state. However, since the "12th Five-Year" period, the co scheduling index has shown a different degree of recovery, preliminary judgment, early China classics The rapid development of the economic system has not taken into account the coordination with the environmental system. The effect of China's energy and environmental system on economic growth is gradually enhanced, and the source of the transformation of economic growth is the key breakthrough in reversing the negative feedback effect of the system. A simultaneous equation model is constructed according to the interaction of energy economy environment system and China. The endogenous relationship between the energy economy environment system is quantified and qualitative analysis is carried out, and the inverse effect of energy and environmental system on economic growth is estimated and analyzed on this basis. The specific conclusions are as follows: unit GDP energy consumption, energy processing conversion rate, industrial structure evolution in the process of industrialization, urbanization level, economic system scale, ring The change of environmental pollution factors will cause the increase of total energy consumption; the growth of the total energy consumption, the number of employees at the end of the year and the investment in social fixed assets will cause the same direction change in the scale of the economic system, and the change of the environmental pollution factor will lead to the reverse change of the scale of the economic system; the state of energy consumption structure, industry The changes in the comprehensive utilization of solid waste will cause the reverse change of the environmental pollution factors, and the changes in the scale of the energy system and the economic system will lead to the change of the environmental pollution factors in the same direction; GDP, the negative effects of the continuous high growth of energy consumption on the environmental system, the environmental system to the energy system and the economy. The anti system effect of the system is gradually increasing. The growth contribution of traditional factor input is obviously attenuated, and the source of China's economic growth is undergoing structural transformation. On the basis of the modeling idea, method selection and the benchmark economic growth model under the constraints of energy and environment, the theory of endogenous growth is based on the theoretical framework of endogenous growth. From the two levels of output and input, energy and environmental factors are incorporated into the extended human capital spillover model. By estimating the applicability of 14 econometric equations in two scenarios under the 7 scenarios set in comparison, two types of models which emphasize the internal effects of human capital and the cumulative spillover effect of human capital are sifting. The output elasticity, contribution, composition and change of various sources of China's economic growth are estimated, measured and decomposed. The conclusion shows that the inhibition effect of energy and environment on economic growth is becoming more and more significant, the contribution degree of the traditional factor input is continued to decline and the contribution of the total factor productivity changes under the energy environment constraints. Obviously, the driving factors of the increase in total factor productivity are changing and so on. The structure of China's inter provincial economic growth source has a great difference, and the phase fluctuation is obvious. Using the interprovincial panel data of 1990-2014 years to measure and decompose the source of economic growth in all provinces and the composition of the source of inter provincial growth under the constraints of energy and environment. The results show that the growth source of the selected 30 sample provinces constitutes a big gap, and the contribution of all kinds of growth sources fluctuates obviously in 1990-1996, 1997-2008, 2009-2014 years and three periods, and the accumulation of material capital is still the first major source of economic growth, and the contribution of most of the provinces is the contribution of labor. On the basis of reflection on the main problems encountered in the research process and the main conclusions of the theoretical and empirical analysis, it is pointed out that the cultivation of the industrial symbiotic network can form a benign interaction mechanism of energy conservation and emission reduction and the evolution of the industrial structure and the main source of economic growth. It is the fundamental path for China's economy to break through the constraints of energy and environment, achieve a win-win situation of energy saving and emission reduction and economic growth, and promote the coordinated development of the energy, economy and environment system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F124

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