發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-09-03 07:31

【摘要】：低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)是人類社會(huì)繼農(nóng)業(yè)文明、工業(yè)文明之后的又一重大進(jìn)步。在后國(guó)際金融危機(jī)時(shí)期,低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)、低碳技術(shù)、近零排放日益受到世界各國(guó)的關(guān)注,正成為新一輪世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)點(diǎn)。低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)已成為各國(guó)科技和產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的重要突破口。但由于發(fā)展模式等方面的原因,中國(guó)是世界上碳排放最多的國(guó)家,人均二氧化碳排放量和單位GDP碳排放強(qiáng)度均處于世界前列。日益增多的碳排放已經(jīng)嚴(yán)重威脅著國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)發(fā)展和生態(tài)文明建設(shè)。從根本上來(lái)說(shuō),碳排放問(wèn)題是能源利用問(wèn)題。中國(guó)能源利用效率和世界先進(jìn)水平之間依然存在著極大的差距。同時(shí),能源資源的供不應(yīng)求狀況也越來(lái)越嚴(yán)重,能源資源的總量約束也越加明顯。在發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)成為世界發(fā)展主流情況下,對(duì)中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō),抓住向低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的契機(jī),是一次推動(dòng)能源結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型的戰(zhàn)略選擇。因此,深入研究低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下的能源安全觀,分析中國(guó)能源安全面臨的國(guó)際國(guó)內(nèi)形勢(shì)以及存在的主要問(wèn)題,需調(diào)整能源戰(zhàn)略,選擇科學(xué)的能源發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,引導(dǎo)中國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)朝著可持續(xù)、低碳的方向理性發(fā)展,提出保障中國(guó)能源安全發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略對(duì)策顯得尤為必要。本文以可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論、能源經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、戰(zhàn)略管理理論、現(xiàn)代數(shù)學(xué)的理論為支撐,以低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下中國(guó)能源安全戰(zhàn)略和政策為研究對(duì)象,綜合運(yùn)用了比較、實(shí)證、計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和模糊評(píng)價(jià)等方法,對(duì)該選題開展了深入研究。對(duì)能源安全戰(zhàn)略和政策進(jìn)行研究,對(duì)戰(zhàn)略效果進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià),對(duì)政策內(nèi)容進(jìn)行分析。對(duì)能源安全戰(zhàn)略綜合評(píng)價(jià),運(yùn)用科學(xué)的分析方法,對(duì)已經(jīng)付諸實(shí)施的能源安全戰(zhàn)略所產(chǎn)生的效果、執(zhí)行情況及其帶來(lái)的各種影響等內(nèi)容進(jìn)行客觀的、系統(tǒng)性的考察與評(píng)價(jià),并最終構(gòu)建低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下中國(guó)能源安全戰(zhàn)略框架,其目的在于通過(guò)將這些信息直接或間接地反饋給戰(zhàn)略制定者和政策執(zhí)行人員,促使他們適時(shí)做出戰(zhàn)略反應(yīng),及時(shí)調(diào)整不當(dāng)?shù)膽?zhàn)略,廢除無(wú)效的戰(zhàn)略,改善戰(zhàn)略執(zhí)行行為,從而提高制定戰(zhàn)略和實(shí)施戰(zhàn)略的質(zhì)量,從根本上解決中國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展所需要的能源數(shù)量、質(zhì)量、價(jià)格和品種,這對(duì)于促進(jìn)中國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展和宏偉戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn),構(gòu)建節(jié)約型社會(huì)、和諧社會(huì)和環(huán)境友好型社會(huì)都具有重要的戰(zhàn)略意義。本文主要內(nèi)容包括：1.中國(guó)能源安全戰(zhàn)略評(píng)價(jià)。在對(duì)建國(guó)以來(lái)中國(guó)能源安全戰(zhàn)略、政策進(jìn)行回顧的基礎(chǔ)上,介紹這些戰(zhàn)略、政策的實(shí)施效果。然后,運(yùn)用模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法對(duì)它們的實(shí)施效果進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)。2.影響中國(guó)能源安全戰(zhàn)略實(shí)施效果的因素分析。第一,探討中國(guó)能源安全戰(zhàn)略存在的問(wèn)題,然后分析產(chǎn)生這些問(wèn)題的原因。最后,以中國(guó)一次能源產(chǎn)業(yè)有效競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的形成為例,分析這些問(wèn)題的具體情況：利用SCP模型研究中國(guó)一次能源市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)狀況,分析有效競(jìng)爭(zhēng)形成的障礙,并提出相關(guān)建議。3.低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下中國(guó)能源安全戰(zhàn)略的支撐體系建立。首先,分析低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下國(guó)家能源安全戰(zhàn)略的動(dòng)力機(jī)制及其作用機(jī)理；然后,構(gòu)建低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下中國(guó)能源安全戰(zhàn)略的支撐體系；最后,以形成可持續(xù)能源發(fā)展技術(shù)政策框架為例,分析低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下中國(guó)能源安全戰(zhàn)略的支撐體系：第一步,分析能源技術(shù)政策對(duì)能源安全的保障功能,第二步,運(yùn)用ARDL模型分析技術(shù)進(jìn)步與中國(guó)整體能源效率、區(qū)域能源效率以及主要發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的能源效率之間的關(guān)系總結(jié)技術(shù)進(jìn)步與中國(guó)能源效率之間的一般關(guān)系,第三步,在分析中國(guó)能源技術(shù)發(fā)展水平低下基本原因基礎(chǔ)上建立了低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下可持續(xù)能源發(fā)展技術(shù)政策體系。4.從經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)和低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)背景出發(fā),建立低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下中國(guó)能源安全戰(zhàn)略框架。首先,分析中國(guó)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀。其次,總結(jié)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的能源安全戰(zhàn)略。再次,構(gòu)建低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下中國(guó)能源安全戰(zhàn)略框架。最后,以對(duì)中國(guó)新能源發(fā)展中中央和地方利益博弈的分析及建議為例,分析低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下中國(guó)新能源安全戰(zhàn)略：第一步,分析中央和地方政府在新能源發(fā)展中的博弈情況；第二步,運(yùn)用博弈模型分析中央和地方在新能源發(fā)展中機(jī)理的博弈；第二步,對(duì)兩者博弈的影響和形成原因進(jìn)行分析基礎(chǔ)上提出促使中國(guó)新能源發(fā)展的建議。本文的可能創(chuàng)新之處：1.利用SCP模型對(duì)一次能源市場(chǎng)的有效競(jìng)爭(zhēng)進(jìn)行了分析。結(jié)果表明,中國(guó)一次能源市場(chǎng)的結(jié)構(gòu)、行為、績(jī)效之間,已旱現(xiàn)出一種互動(dòng)局勢(shì),但相互間的影響尚不充分。從合理調(diào)整政府管理體制,轉(zhuǎn)變政府職能,建立與能源產(chǎn)業(yè)形成有效競(jìng)爭(zhēng)相適應(yīng)的政府管理制度、深化產(chǎn)權(quán)制度改革,優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)組織結(jié)構(gòu),通過(guò)有效的資本運(yùn)營(yíng)改善企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)狀況、加強(qiáng)市場(chǎng)建設(shè),形成多元化的投資主體、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)主體和合理的價(jià)格調(diào)控管理體系、加快推進(jìn)資源使用、天然氣行業(yè)管理等的市場(chǎng)化步伐和加強(qiáng)有關(guān)法律法規(guī)的制訂等方面給出了建議。2.從政策支撐體系,法律支撐體系、市場(chǎng)支撐體系、技術(shù)支撐體系、資源供給支撐體系和信息技術(shù)服務(wù)體系等方面構(gòu)建了低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下中國(guó)能源安全戰(zhàn)略支撐體系。通過(guò)對(duì)1978-2012年間中國(guó)能源消費(fèi)的碳排放的總量、結(jié)構(gòu)與強(qiáng)度進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析和特征判斷,把握中國(guó)能源消費(fèi)碳排放的發(fā)展演變軌跡。為把握影響中國(guó)能源消費(fèi)碳排放的形成規(guī)律,選擇能源效率、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和人口結(jié)構(gòu)為關(guān)鍵變量,并通過(guò)運(yùn)用VAR模型和脈沖響應(yīng)分析,闡述這些因素對(duì)碳排放量的作用或影響,為更深一步理解新時(shí)期國(guó)家能源安全的歷史任務(wù)、節(jié)能減排的具體現(xiàn)實(shí)和生態(tài)文明建設(shè)的未來(lái)方向提供直觀證據(jù)。3.運(yùn)用完全信息動(dòng)態(tài)博弈模型分析了中央和地方在新能源政策實(shí)施中的利益博弈對(duì)新能源政策效果的影響。結(jié)論認(rèn)為：地方在短期中會(huì)選擇“搭便車”而在長(zhǎng)期中會(huì)根據(jù)中央決策選擇對(duì)自己最有利的決策,這使地方與中央的行為和偏好出現(xiàn)差異,削弱了新能源政策效果；影響地方選擇的原因主要是中國(guó)財(cái)政制度和地方政府考核機(jī)制;在現(xiàn)階段可通過(guò)明確中央和地方在新能源發(fā)展中職責(zé)、實(shí)現(xiàn)地方財(cái)權(quán)和事權(quán)統(tǒng)一、構(gòu)建更為合理的政績(jī)考核指標(biāo)等方法使地方與中央的行為和偏好實(shí)現(xiàn)一致,達(dá)到提高新能源政策效果的目的,為促使中國(guó)能源結(jié)構(gòu)的低碳化提供了有益的建議。
[Abstract]:Low-carbon economy is another great progress of human society after agricultural civilization and industrial civilization. In the period of post-international financial crisis, low-carbon economy, low-carbon technology and near-zero emissions have attracted more and more attention from all countries in the world and are becoming the growth point and competitive point of the new round of world economy. However, due to the development model and other reasons, China is the most carbon-emitting country in the world. The per capita carbon dioxide emissions and the intensity of carbon emissions per unit GDP are in the forefront of the world. There is still a big gap between China's energy efficiency and the world's advanced level. At the same time, the shortage of energy resources is becoming more and more serious, and the total restriction of energy resources is becoming more and more obvious. The turning point of carbon economy transformation is a strategic choice to promote the transformation of energy structure. Therefore, it is necessary to study the concept of energy security under the condition of low-carbon economy, analyze the international and domestic situation faced by China's energy security and the existing major problems, adjust the energy strategy, select a scientific energy development strategy, and guide China's national economy towards the future. Sustainable, low-carbon direction of rational development, put forward to safeguard China's energy security development strategy is particularly necessary. This paper is based on sustainable development theory, energy economics, industrial economics, low-carbon economics, strategic management theory, modern mathematics theory as the support, in the context of low-carbon economy, China's energy security strategy and policy for The research object, using the methods of comparison, empirical analysis, econometrics and fuzzy evaluation, has carried out in-depth study on the selected topic. The energy security strategy and policy are studied, the strategic effect is evaluated, and the policy content is analyzed. The objective and systematic investigation and evaluation of the effects, implementation and impacts of the energy security strategy will be carried out, and finally a strategic framework for China's energy security in the context of a low-carbon economy will be constructed, with the aim of feeding this information directly or indirectly back to the strategists and policy executives. Promote them to make timely strategic response, timely adjust improper strategies, abolish ineffective strategies, improve strategic implementation behavior, thereby improving the quality of strategy formulation and implementation, and fundamentally solve the quantity, quality, price and variety of energy needed for the sustainable development of China's national economy and society, which is conducive to promoting China's national economy. The rapid development of economy and the realization of grand strategic goals are of great strategic significance in building a conservation-oriented society, a harmonious society and an environment-friendly society. The main contents of this paper include: 1. China's energy security strategy evaluation. Secondly, the paper evaluates their implementation effects by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. 2. The factors influencing the implementation effect of China's energy security strategy are analyzed. Firstly, the existing problems of China's energy security strategy are discussed, and then the causes of these problems are analyzed. Finally, the formation of effective competition in China's primary energy industry is discussed. For example, this paper analyzes the specific situation of these problems: using SCP model to study the competition situation of China's primary energy market, analyzing the obstacles of effective competition, and putting forward relevant suggestions.3. Establishing the support system of China's energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy. Secondly, it constructs the supporting system of China's energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy. Finally, it takes the formation of a technical policy framework for sustainable energy development as an example to analyze the supporting system of China's energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy. The first step is to analyze the safeguard function of energy technology policy on energy security. Secondly, the ARDL model is used to analyze the relationship between technological progress and China's overall energy efficiency, regional energy efficiency and energy efficiency of major developed countries. The general relationship between technological progress and China's energy efficiency is summarized. Thirdly, a low-carbon economy is established on the basis of the analysis of the basic reasons for China's low level of energy technology development. Based on the background of new normal economy and low-carbon economy, this paper establishes the strategic framework of China's energy security under the background of low-carbon economy. Firstly, it analyzes the current situation of China's low-carbon economic development. Secondly, it summarizes the energy security strategies of developed countries under the background of low-carbon economy. Finally, taking the analysis and suggestions of the game between the central and local interests in the development of China's new energy as an example, this paper analyzes China's new energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy: the first step is to analyze the game between the central and local governments in the development of new energy; the second step is to use the game model to analyze the central and local interests of China's new energy development. The second step is to put forward suggestions to promote the development of China's new energy based on the analysis of the impact and causes of the two games. There has been an interactive situation between structure, behavior and performance, but the mutual influence is still insufficient. We should rationally adjust the government management system, transform the government functions, establish a government management system suitable for the formation of effective competition with the energy industry, deepen the reform of property rights system, optimize the industrial organization structure, and improve it through effective capital operation. Suggestions are put forward in the aspects of enterprise operation, strengthening market construction, forming diversified investors, competitors and reasonable price control management system, accelerating the market-oriented pace of resource utilization, natural gas industry management, and strengthening the formulation of relevant laws and regulations. 2. Policy support system, legal support system and market support system are proposed. The support system, technology support system, resource supply support system and information technology service system have been constructed to support China's energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy. In order to grasp the formation law of carbon emissions affecting China's energy consumption, energy efficiency, industrial structure, technological innovation and population structure are selected as the key variables. By using VAR model and impulse response analysis, the effects of these factors on carbon emissions are expounded, so as to further understand the national energy in the new era. The historical task of safety, the concrete reality of energy conservation and emission reduction and the future direction of ecological civilization construction provide intuitive evidence. In the long run, the central government will choose the most favorable decision according to the central decision-making, which makes the behavior and preference of the local and central differences, weakening the effect of new energy policy; the main reasons for affecting the local choice are China's financial system and local government assessment mechanism; at this stage, the central and local governments can be clearly defined in the development of new energy. In order to achieve the goal of improving the effect of the new energy policy, we should unify the local financial power and administrative power, construct a more reasonable performance appraisal index, and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)地質(zhì)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F426.2

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