售電放開政策下電力交易多方主體利益分析模型研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-03-09 19:57
【摘要】：深化電力體制改革將在進一步完善政企分開、廠網(wǎng)分開、主輔分開的基礎(chǔ)上,按照管住中間、放開兩頭的體制架構(gòu),有序放開輸配以外的競爭性環(huán)節(jié)電價,有序向社會資本開放配售電業(yè)務(wù),有序放開公益性和調(diào)節(jié)性以外的發(fā)用電計劃。售電市場因其自然壟斷性較弱,改革的阻力相對較小,成為政府部門、專家學者和社會公眾的關(guān)注聚焦點。售電側(cè)放開市場機制下的電力交易模式是對電力改革頂端設(shè)計方案的具體承接和實際執(zhí)行,是建設(shè)統(tǒng)一開放、競爭有序的市場體系的重要組成部分。以售電放開政策為出發(fā)點,本文圍繞電力體制改革歷史進程,對新形勢下的電力市場運營機制,各交易主體的準入和評價,電網(wǎng)企業(yè)、發(fā)電商、售電商的經(jīng)濟行為等相關(guān)問題展開研究。以電改相關(guān)政策為研究背景,從原則層次、競爭性市場、售電側(cè)三維空間、一般性思路以及階段劃分等方面對售電側(cè)放開的涵義進行界定和剖析。根據(jù)電力交易模式進行分類,對電力雙邊交易、電力集中交易兩種模式進行對比分析。給出我國電力市場運營機制框架,從兩個維度對合同市場進行劃分；其次,從月度競價市場、日前市場、實時平衡市場、輔助服務(wù)市場等4個層面對電力現(xiàn)貨市場和輔助市場進行了劃分；再次,對零售市場運行、交易、電價制定等模塊進行分析。售電放開政策下的電力市場準入機制,是電力體制改革的基本環(huán)節(jié)。本文結(jié)合相關(guān)政策,利用綜合評價方法以發(fā)電側(cè)和用戶側(cè)2個角度對電力交易各主體的準入條件進行界定。采用層次分析法和熵權(quán)法對各指標進行賦權(quán),建立綜合評價模型,對發(fā)電商、大用戶和售電商3類主體的準入進行評價與排序。根據(jù)電力市場實際情況以及市場容量,按照排序結(jié)果選擇合適的企業(yè)參與電力交易。售電側(cè)的放開使電網(wǎng)企業(yè)的贏利模式發(fā)生改變,電網(wǎng)企業(yè)角色轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)閷﹄娏灰资杖≥斉潆娰M的服務(wù)性企業(yè)。一方面,電網(wǎng)企業(yè)作為輸配電公司保有輸配收益,根據(jù)核定原則對電網(wǎng)企業(yè)輸配電成本進行核算,建立輸配電價水平測算模型,模擬改革前后電網(wǎng)企業(yè)利益變動情況。另一方面,電網(wǎng)企業(yè)可成立售電商參與售電市場競爭,根據(jù)電網(wǎng)企業(yè)保底服務(wù)建立電網(wǎng)企業(yè)售電業(yè)務(wù)利益模型,探討保底居民類用戶電力下的輸配電價補貼問題。售電側(cè)改革后的發(fā)電商交易模式轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槊嫦蚴垭娚痰闹苯咏灰�。對不同情景下發(fā)電商利益進行模擬分析,設(shè)定情景包含單一發(fā)電商與單一售電商交易、多發(fā)電商與單一售電商交易2類。在探討“一對一”模式時,以中長期合同交易為背景,研究發(fā)售雙方交易時的電價談判問題,根據(jù)Zeuthen決策建立貝葉斯學習模型,提出一個發(fā)電商與售電商之間逐步估算對方底限的電價談判策略。對于“多對一”模式,發(fā)電商之間存在競爭現(xiàn)象,根據(jù)平均對手法與靜態(tài)貝葉斯納什均衡理論建立報價策略模型,探討發(fā)電商的報價策略。售電側(cè)的放開將帶來一個新角色-售電商,售電商作為電力終端用戶與發(fā)電商之間的中介,其經(jīng)濟行為及購售電模式對上下游電力企業(yè)來說至關(guān)重要。在購電方面,研究作為中長期合約之一的差價合約下的售電商的購電策略。利用Stackelberg模型分析售電商之間存在聯(lián)盟時,對電力交易市場價格的影響,借助夏普利值法建立售電商聯(lián)盟合作利益均衡模型,研究聯(lián)盟內(nèi)各售電商的利益分配策略。在售電方面,用戶負荷預(yù)測的準確度對售電商收益有較大影響。當市場出現(xiàn)多家售電商博弈時,測算由于負荷預(yù)測不準確帶來的額外成本,模擬不同情景下電力現(xiàn)貨市場交易電價情況,對售電商的利潤變動情況進行分析。
[Abstract]:"The deepening of the reform of the electric power system will further improve the separation of the government and the enterprise, the separation of the plant and the separation of the main and secondary, and the system structure of the two ends shall be released according to the middle of the management, and the price of the competitive link other than the distribution and distribution shall be opened orderly, and the electric service shall be opened to the social capital in an orderly manner," In order to release the electricity utilization plan other than the public welfare and the regulation. Because of its weak natural monopoly, the resistance of the reform is relatively small, which has become the focus of attention of government departments, scholars and the public. The power transaction mode under the market mechanism of the power-selling side is the concrete undertaking and the practical implementation of the design of the top end of the power reform, which is an important part of the market system which is open and orderly. Starting from the policy of opening and opening the electric power system, this paper studies the operation mechanism of the power market, the access and the evaluation of the main body, the power grid enterprise, the power generator and the economic behavior of the e-commerce in the new situation. The paper defines and analyzes the meaning of the release of the power supply side from the aspects of the principle level, the competitive market, the three-dimensional space of the power selling side, the general thinking and the stage division. According to the power transaction mode, the two modes of the electric power bilateral transaction and the power centralized transaction are compared and analyzed. The framework of the operation mechanism of China's electric power market is given, and the contract market is divided from two dimensions; secondly, the power spot market and the auxiliary market are divided from four aspects of the monthly bidding market, the prior market, the real-time balance market and the auxiliary service market; and again, The analysis is made on the operation, trading and electricity price of the retail market. The mechanism of power market access under the power-off policy is the basic link of the reform of the power system. In this paper, a comprehensive evaluation method is used to define the quasi-entry conditions of the main body of the power transaction at the power generation side and the user side by means of the comprehensive evaluation method. By using the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy method, the indexes are weighted, and the comprehensive evaluation model is established to evaluate and sort the access of the power generator, the big users and the e-commerce 3-class subjects. According to the actual situation of the electric power market and the market capacity, the appropriate enterprises are selected to participate in the electric power transaction according to the ranking result. The release of the power supply side makes the profit model of the power grid enterprise change, and the power grid enterprise's role is transformed into a service enterprise which charges the power transmission and distribution fee to the electric power transaction. On the one hand, the power grid enterprise, as the power transmission and distribution company, reserves the transmission and distribution income, and the power transmission and distribution cost of the power grid enterprise is accounted according to the approved principle, and the distribution price level measurement model is established, and the change of the power grid enterprise's interests before and after the reform is simulated. On the other hand, the power grid enterprise can be established to sell e-commerce to participate in the electric sale market competition. According to the power grid enterprise service-keeping service, the power grid enterprise electricity selling business benefit model is established, and the problem of the power transmission and distribution price subsidy under the power of the base-base residents is discussed. The power generation business transaction mode after the power selling side is changed into a direct transaction for the sale of e-commerce. The simulation and analysis of the power generation quotient's benefits under different scenarios includes the single power generation business and the single-sale e-commerce transaction, the multi-power generation business and the single-sale e-commerce transaction class 2. In this paper, on the basis of medium-and long-term contract transaction, the problem of the price negotiation between the two parties is studied, and a Bayesian learning model is set up according to Zethen's decision. For the "Multi-to-one" mode, there is a competitive phenomenon among the power generation companies, and the bidding strategy model is set up according to the average comparison method and the static Bayesian Nash equilibrium theory, and the bidding strategy of the power generator is discussed. The release of the electricity-selling side will bring a new role-the sale of e-commerce and the sale of e-commerce as the intermediary between the end-user and the power generation, and its economic behavior and the power-buying mode are of great importance to the upstream and downstream electric power enterprises. In the aspect of power-purchase, the paper deals with the purchase strategy of e-commerce under the post contract of one of the medium-and long-term contracts. When using the Stackelberg model to analyze the existence of the alliance among the e-commerce, the influence of the price of the electric market on the electric power market is established, and the cooperative interest equilibrium model of the e-commerce alliance is established by means of the summer-pley value method, and the benefit distribution strategy of the e-commerce in the alliance is studied. In the aspect of electricity sale, the accuracy of the user load forecast has a great effect on the e-commerce income. When there are a number of e-commerce games in the market, this paper calculates the additional cost due to the inaccurate load forecast, and simulates the power price of the power spot market under different scenarios and analyzes the change of the profit of the e-commerce.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學(北京)
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F426.61
本文編號：2437800
[Abstract]:"The deepening of the reform of the electric power system will further improve the separation of the government and the enterprise, the separation of the plant and the separation of the main and secondary, and the system structure of the two ends shall be released according to the middle of the management, and the price of the competitive link other than the distribution and distribution shall be opened orderly, and the electric service shall be opened to the social capital in an orderly manner," In order to release the electricity utilization plan other than the public welfare and the regulation. Because of its weak natural monopoly, the resistance of the reform is relatively small, which has become the focus of attention of government departments, scholars and the public. The power transaction mode under the market mechanism of the power-selling side is the concrete undertaking and the practical implementation of the design of the top end of the power reform, which is an important part of the market system which is open and orderly. Starting from the policy of opening and opening the electric power system, this paper studies the operation mechanism of the power market, the access and the evaluation of the main body, the power grid enterprise, the power generator and the economic behavior of the e-commerce in the new situation. The paper defines and analyzes the meaning of the release of the power supply side from the aspects of the principle level, the competitive market, the three-dimensional space of the power selling side, the general thinking and the stage division. According to the power transaction mode, the two modes of the electric power bilateral transaction and the power centralized transaction are compared and analyzed. The framework of the operation mechanism of China's electric power market is given, and the contract market is divided from two dimensions; secondly, the power spot market and the auxiliary market are divided from four aspects of the monthly bidding market, the prior market, the real-time balance market and the auxiliary service market; and again, The analysis is made on the operation, trading and electricity price of the retail market. The mechanism of power market access under the power-off policy is the basic link of the reform of the power system. In this paper, a comprehensive evaluation method is used to define the quasi-entry conditions of the main body of the power transaction at the power generation side and the user side by means of the comprehensive evaluation method. By using the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy method, the indexes are weighted, and the comprehensive evaluation model is established to evaluate and sort the access of the power generator, the big users and the e-commerce 3-class subjects. According to the actual situation of the electric power market and the market capacity, the appropriate enterprises are selected to participate in the electric power transaction according to the ranking result. The release of the power supply side makes the profit model of the power grid enterprise change, and the power grid enterprise's role is transformed into a service enterprise which charges the power transmission and distribution fee to the electric power transaction. On the one hand, the power grid enterprise, as the power transmission and distribution company, reserves the transmission and distribution income, and the power transmission and distribution cost of the power grid enterprise is accounted according to the approved principle, and the distribution price level measurement model is established, and the change of the power grid enterprise's interests before and after the reform is simulated. On the other hand, the power grid enterprise can be established to sell e-commerce to participate in the electric sale market competition. According to the power grid enterprise service-keeping service, the power grid enterprise electricity selling business benefit model is established, and the problem of the power transmission and distribution price subsidy under the power of the base-base residents is discussed. The power generation business transaction mode after the power selling side is changed into a direct transaction for the sale of e-commerce. The simulation and analysis of the power generation quotient's benefits under different scenarios includes the single power generation business and the single-sale e-commerce transaction, the multi-power generation business and the single-sale e-commerce transaction class 2. In this paper, on the basis of medium-and long-term contract transaction, the problem of the price negotiation between the two parties is studied, and a Bayesian learning model is set up according to Zethen's decision. For the "Multi-to-one" mode, there is a competitive phenomenon among the power generation companies, and the bidding strategy model is set up according to the average comparison method and the static Bayesian Nash equilibrium theory, and the bidding strategy of the power generator is discussed. The release of the electricity-selling side will bring a new role-the sale of e-commerce and the sale of e-commerce as the intermediary between the end-user and the power generation, and its economic behavior and the power-buying mode are of great importance to the upstream and downstream electric power enterprises. In the aspect of power-purchase, the paper deals with the purchase strategy of e-commerce under the post contract of one of the medium-and long-term contracts. When using the Stackelberg model to analyze the existence of the alliance among the e-commerce, the influence of the price of the electric market on the electric power market is established, and the cooperative interest equilibrium model of the e-commerce alliance is established by means of the summer-pley value method, and the benefit distribution strategy of the e-commerce in the alliance is studied. In the aspect of electricity sale, the accuracy of the user load forecast has a great effect on the e-commerce income. When there are a number of e-commerce games in the market, this paper calculates the additional cost due to the inaccurate load forecast, and simulates the power price of the power spot market under different scenarios and analyzes the change of the profit of the e-commerce.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學(北京)
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F426.61
【相似文獻】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
1 王卿然;張粒子;謝國輝;;跨地區(qū)電力交易輸電服務(wù)價格機制[J];電力系統(tǒng)自動化;2010年13期
2 蔡靜鵬;;電力交易管理的精細化[J];華北電業(yè);2010年04期
3 錢躍成;網(wǎng)上電力交易[J];大眾用電;2000年10期
4 婁娟,馬勇,徐志勇,韓學山;多區(qū)域電力系統(tǒng)電力交易分析[J];東北電力學院學報;2001年02期
5 趙九斤;英國新電力交易系統(tǒng)[J];國際電力;2001年02期
6 趙九斤;英國新電力交易系統(tǒng)[J];農(nóng)電管理;2001年12期
7 婁娟,韓學山;聯(lián)營電力交易中發(fā)電公司競標策略分析[J];東北電力學院學報;2002年04期
8 趙九斤;英國新電力交易制度運行狀況[J];國際電力;2002年03期
9 江健健,夏清,祁達才,康重慶,沈瑜,趙儆;基于期貨的新型電力交易模式[J];中國電機工程學報;2003年04期
10 趙九斤;英國新電力交易制度近況[J];農(nóng)電管理;2003年12期
相關(guān)會議論文 前1條
1 王紅蕾;魏一鳴;;南方互聯(lián)電網(wǎng)在電力交易中購售雙方行為分析[A];2007中國控制與決策學術(shù)年會論文集[C];2007年
相關(guān)重要報紙文章 前10條
1 張屹;短時電力交易累計26.07億千瓦時[N];中國電力報;2013年
2 通訊員 陳曉巍;甘肅電力交易平臺完成首筆直接交易[N];中國電力報;2014年
3 辛文;浙江抗臺救災(zāi)凸顯區(qū)域電力交易的重要作用[N];中國電力報;2004年
4 阮曉琴;電監(jiān)會擬規(guī)范電力交易 市場格局面臨調(diào)整[N];上海證券報;2007年
5 記者 郝宏升 宋立新;河南公司創(chuàng)新跨省電力交易模式[N];國家電網(wǎng)報;2008年
6 記者 郭洪敏;跨區(qū)跨省電力交易保障世博會供電[N];國家電網(wǎng)報;2010年
7 記者 王彪;加大資源配置力度 加強電力交易管理[N];國家電網(wǎng)報;2011年
8 李曉剛;華東電力交易平臺靈活開展電力交易[N];國家電網(wǎng)報;2011年
9 郭惠;深化電力交易管理 努力實現(xiàn)“四強化、四提升”[N];國家電網(wǎng)報;2012年
10 馮衛(wèi);華中電監(jiān)局 推進電力交易保供電[N];中國電力報;2013年
相關(guān)博士學位論文 前4條
1 張晨;售電放開政策下電力交易多方主體利益分析模型研究[D];華北電力大學(北京);2016年
2 丁偉斌;中國電力交易制度構(gòu)建研究[D];浙江大學;2008年
3 李曉彤;跨區(qū)電力交易均衡優(yōu)化模型及輸電價格機制研究[D];華北電力大學;2015年
4 宋燕敏;適應(yīng)分層分區(qū)電力市場發(fā)展的新電力交易市場研究[D];東南大學;2006年
相關(guān)碩士學位論文 前5條
1 王韜瑋;基于合同管理系統(tǒng)的電力交易過程在線閉環(huán)管控[D];長沙理工大學;2013年
2 陳嬌;電力交易信息平臺的設(shè)計與實現(xiàn)[D];電子科技大學;2012年
3 王丹;博弈論在電力交易和投資中的應(yīng)用研究[D];青島大學;2006年
4 應(yīng)弘毅;全國統(tǒng)一電力市場技術(shù)支撐平臺系統(tǒng)的研究與開發(fā)[D];吉林大學;2015年
5 楊俊;云南送廣東電力交易及電價分析[D];華南理工大學;2014年
，本文編號：2437800
本文鏈接：http://www.wukwdryxk.cn/shoufeilunwen/jjglbs/2437800.html
最近更新
教材專著
