發(fā)布時間：2018-03-16 15:48

  本文選題：洪水預(yù)報　切入點(diǎn)：水文模型　出處：《太原理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：水問題已成為21世紀(jì)威脅世界和平、威脅人類生存和生態(tài)安全的首要因素,水利是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè),水資源作為國民基礎(chǔ)生產(chǎn)中的重要自然資源和不可或缺的經(jīng)濟(jì)資源,在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中占有舉足輕重的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展地位,同時也是當(dāng)代生態(tài)環(huán)境重要組成部分,在當(dāng)代國家發(fā)展中具有重要的戰(zhàn)略地位。為解決我國水資源分布不均的現(xiàn)實狀況,通過大中型水利工程實現(xiàn)水資源調(diào)配是我國目前水利建設(shè)的重要策略。中華人民共和國成立以來,經(jīng)過半個多世紀(jì)的建設(shè)與發(fā)展,水利工程建設(shè)取得了巨大成就,尤其是擔(dān)負(fù)調(diào)峰、調(diào)頻、防洪、灌溉、航運(yùn)及工業(yè)和居民用水等特殊功能和任務(wù)的水庫工程建設(shè),為中國的現(xiàn)代化建設(shè)提供了強(qiáng)大的安全防汛和水資源利用保證。但是,洪澇災(zāi)害、干旱缺水、水土流失和水污染等四大問題還遠(yuǎn)沒有解決,每年帶來的損失也越來越巨大,水資源與國民經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會發(fā)展不適應(yīng)的矛盾越來越突出,已經(jīng)嚴(yán)重影響全面建設(shè)小康社會目標(biāo)的實現(xiàn)。經(jīng)濟(jì)的現(xiàn)代化離不開水利現(xiàn)代化的保障,努力探索和實踐適應(yīng)社會主義經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)代水利是水利工作者義不容辭的責(zé)任。面對嚴(yán)峻形勢,應(yīng)用現(xiàn)代科學(xué)理論和高新技術(shù),對水利工程實行科學(xué)管理,確保對水資源的合理開發(fā)、高效利用、優(yōu)化配置、全面節(jié)約、有效保護(hù)和綜合治理,用水利信息化來帶動水利現(xiàn)代化已經(jīng)成為中國21世紀(jì)水利事業(yè)發(fā)展的必然。水庫的安全高效率運(yùn)行是保障水資源合理開發(fā)利用的基礎(chǔ)。洪水作為威脅水庫和下游人民財產(chǎn)安全的重要因素,同時也是寶貴的水資源,如何在保證大壩安全的前提下盡可能的利用洪水資源,盡可能多發(fā)揮洪水的利用率成為關(guān)鍵的問題。建立一套合理的洪水預(yù)報體系和大壩安全監(jiān)測平臺為上級決策提供便利很有必要�；�于以上分析和認(rèn)識,本論文的主要研究內(nèi)容如下:(1)分析該流域的水文資料,選擇國內(nèi)較為成熟的水文預(yù)報模型對其產(chǎn)流機(jī)理進(jìn)行分析。(2)對流域進(jìn)行單元劃分,分析降雨量,蒸發(fā)量,河道入流資料,分別建立新安江模型和雙超模型,在該流域?qū)ζ溥M(jìn)行參數(shù)優(yōu)化,使其得到較為滿意的預(yù)報信息。(3)分析大壩的具體情況,優(yōu)化測壓管管線布置,對大壩測壓管進(jìn)行沖洗處理,通過測試表明其靈敏度合格,為大壩滲流監(jiān)測系統(tǒng)打下基礎(chǔ)。(4)完成信息采集系統(tǒng)的硬件選型,及構(gòu)建監(jiān)測硬件的信息傳輸系統(tǒng)的通訊組網(wǎng)的設(shè)計研究,實現(xiàn)監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)的即時采集、分析、傳輸、展示和應(yīng)用。通過統(tǒng)計回歸模型對采集回來的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,以判別大壩的安全性。(5)通過對改流域洪水兩種模型的預(yù)報,結(jié)合大壩安全監(jiān)測系統(tǒng)編寫了水庫綜合自動化系統(tǒng)軟件。滲實現(xiàn)數(shù)值模擬結(jié)果與SQL、VB、Excel等常用軟件的無縫鏈接。洪水預(yù)報和大壩安全監(jiān)測是水庫綜合自動化系統(tǒng)中的重要組成部分,但對于水庫水資源調(diào)度以及視頻監(jiān)控問等,須要做更深一步研究。
[Abstract]:In 21th century, water problem has become the most important factor threatening world peace and human survival and ecological security. Water conservancy is the basic industry of national economy. Water resources are important natural resources and indispensable economic resources in national basic production. In order to solve the problem of uneven distribution of water resources in China, it plays an important role in economic development in the national economy, and is also an important part of the contemporary ecological environment, and plays an important strategic role in the development of contemporary countries. The allocation of water resources through large and medium-sized water conservancy projects is an important strategy for water conservancy construction in China. Since the founding of the people's Republic of China, after more than half a century of construction and development, great achievements have been made in the construction of water conservancy projects. In particular, reservoir construction, which has special functions and tasks such as peak-shaving, FM, flood control, irrigation, shipping, industrial and residential water use and other special functions and tasks, has provided a strong guarantee for the modernization of China in flood prevention and water resources utilization. The four major problems of flood disaster, drought and water shortage, soil erosion and water pollution are still far from being solved, and the losses caused by each year are becoming more and more enormous, and the contradiction between water resources and the unsuitable development of the national economy and society is becoming more and more prominent. It has seriously affected the realization of the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way. The modernization of the economy cannot be separated from the guarantee of the modernization of water conservancy. It is incumbent on water conservancy workers to explore and practice modern water conservancy projects that adapt to the development of socialist economy. In the face of the severe situation, applying modern scientific theory and high and new technology to the scientific management of water conservancy projects, To ensure the rational development of water resources, efficient utilization, optimal allocation, comprehensive conservation, effective protection and comprehensive management, Using water conservancy information to drive water conservancy modernization has become a necessity for the development of water conservancy in 21th century in China. The safe and efficient operation of reservoir is the basis to guarantee the rational development and utilization of water resources. Flood is a threat to reservoir and downstream. Important factors for the safety of people's property, At the same time, it is also a valuable water resource. How to make use of flood resources as far as possible under the premise of ensuring dam safety, Maximizing flood utilization is a key issue. It is necessary to establish a reasonable flood forecasting system and dam safety monitoring platform to facilitate superior decision-making. Based on the above analysis and understanding, The main contents of this paper are as follows: (1) analyzing the hydrological data of the basin, selecting the more mature hydrological forecasting model in China to analyze the mechanism of runoff generation. The Xinanjiang model and the double supermodel are established respectively. The parameters of the dam are optimized in the basin to obtain satisfactory forecast information. The concrete situation of the dam is analyzed, the layout of the pressure measuring pipe is optimized, and the pressure measuring pipe of the dam is flushed out. The test shows that its sensitivity is up to standard, which lays the foundation for dam seepage monitoring system. It completes the hardware selection of information collection system and the design of communication network for constructing information transmission system of monitoring hardware. To realize the real-time collection, analysis, transmission, display and application of monitoring data. Through the statistical regression model, the collected data are analyzed to judge the dam safety. Combined with dam safety monitoring system, the software of reservoir integrated automation system is compiled. The results of seepage numerical simulation are seamlessly linked to the common software such as SQL VBX Excel. Flood forecasting and dam safety monitoring are important parts of reservoir integrated automation system. However, more research is needed for reservoir water resource regulation and video surveillance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：太原理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TP274;TV697.1

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