發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-13 08:32

【摘要】：2013年9-10月,習(xí)近平主席出訪哈薩克斯坦和印度尼西亞,先后提出了"絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶"和"21世紀(jì)海上絲綢之路"(簡(jiǎn)稱"一帶一路")倡議,并成為中國(guó)的一項(xiàng)國(guó)家戰(zhàn)略。中美關(guān)系是21世紀(jì)最復(fù)雜、最關(guān)鍵的大國(guó)關(guān)系。作為全球最發(fā)達(dá)、最具話語(yǔ)權(quán)的政治國(guó)家—美國(guó)如何看待"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略,將在一定程度上影響沿線國(guó)家的態(tài)度和認(rèn)知,進(jìn)而影響該戰(zhàn)略未來(lái)的推進(jìn)與實(shí)施。雖然美國(guó)官方針對(duì)"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略做出的明確回應(yīng)較少,但我們可以通過(guò)對(duì)具有美國(guó)政治決策"外腦"之稱的智庫(kù)中學(xué)者觀點(diǎn)進(jìn)行分析,進(jìn)而從一定程度上探知美國(guó)官方態(tài)度。美國(guó)智庫(kù)在外交政策制定中占據(jù)著舉足輕重的地位,其一方面通過(guò)"旋轉(zhuǎn)門"機(jī)制向政府輸送官員來(lái)直接影響對(duì)外政治決策,另一方面通過(guò)大眾媒體宣傳、舉辦研討會(huì)等方式來(lái)引導(dǎo)社會(huì)輿論和思潮,間接影響政府決策。布魯金斯學(xué)會(huì)、卡內(nèi)基國(guó)際和平基金會(huì)、傳統(tǒng)基金會(huì)以及美國(guó)進(jìn)步中心是美國(guó)較為著名的智庫(kù),同時(shí)擁有研究中國(guó)的權(quán)威專家,觀點(diǎn)十分具有典型性和代表性。本文選取這四個(gè)主流智庫(kù)2015年至今在官方網(wǎng)站的評(píng)論文章、引用文段等作為分析樣本,梳理和搭建了主流智庫(kù)學(xué)者們對(duì)"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略的認(rèn)知框架,在此基礎(chǔ)上,從中美對(duì)比視角總結(jié)出美國(guó)主流智庫(kù)對(duì)"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略的總體評(píng)判,并試圖挖掘出未來(lái)美國(guó)政府對(duì)"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略可能采取的政策。整體上來(lái)看,美國(guó)智庫(kù)中雖然存在一些理性、客觀的看法,但更多的是對(duì)中國(guó)實(shí)施這一戰(zhàn)略的動(dòng)機(jī)表示懷疑,認(rèn)為"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略有助于提升中國(guó)國(guó)際影響力,引發(fā)中美展開競(jìng)爭(zhēng),對(duì)美國(guó)在亞太地區(qū)的主導(dǎo)地位帶來(lái)挑戰(zhàn)。在應(yīng)對(duì)上,短期之內(nèi)美國(guó)或許仍采取觀望的態(tài)度,但長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看更傾向于約束、制衡甚至是破壞中國(guó)這一戰(zhàn)略的進(jìn)展與實(shí)施。美國(guó)暫時(shí)的觀望恰好為中國(guó)留出了行動(dòng)空間與時(shí)間。目前中國(guó)不僅要通過(guò)現(xiàn)有的雙邊或多邊機(jī)制來(lái)和美國(guó)進(jìn)一步溝通交流、增信釋疑,更應(yīng)該采取一些具體的措施來(lái)加強(qiáng)中美合作,同時(shí)增加美國(guó)干涉或影響"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略的難度,積極推進(jìn)"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略的實(shí)施。
[Abstract]:In September and October 2013, President Xi Jinping visited Kazakhstan and Indonesia, where he put forward the "Silk Road Economic Belt" and the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" ("Belt and Road") initiative, which became a national strategy of China. The relationship between China and the United States is the most complicated and crucial one in the 21 st century. As the most developed and powerful political country in the world, how the United States views the "Belt and Road" strategy will influence the attitude and cognition of the countries along the route to a certain extent, and then affect the future promotion and implementation of the strategy. Although the US authorities have given less explicit response to the "Belt and Road" strategy, we can analyze the views of scholars in a think-tank known as the "outside brain" of American political decision-making. Then, to some extent, the official attitude of the United States was explored. American think-tanks play an important role in the formulation of foreign policy. On the one hand, they directly influence foreign political decisions through the "revolving door" mechanism, and on the other hand, they propagate through the mass media. Hold seminars and other ways to guide public opinion and trends of thought, indirectly affect government decisions. The Brookings Institution, the Carnegie Foundation for International Peace, the Heritage Foundation and the American Progressive Center are famous American think-tanks with authoritative experts on China. This paper selects the review articles of the four mainstream think-tanks from 2015 to present on the official website, quoting paragraphs and so on, as analysis samples, combs and builds the cognitive framework of the "Belt and Road" strategy of mainstream think-tank scholars, and on this basis, This paper sums up the overall judgment of "Belt and Road" strategy by American mainstream think-tank from the perspective of Sino-American comparison, and tries to find out the possible policies that the American government may adopt to "Belt and Road" strategy in the future. On the whole, although there are some rational and objective views in the US think-tank, they are more sceptical about China's motivation to implement this strategy, and believe that the "Belt and Road" strategy is conducive to enhancing China's international influence. The competition between China and the United States brings challenges to America's leading position in the Asia-Pacific region. In the short term, the United States may still be taking a wait-and-see approach, but in the long run it prefers to constrain, counterbalance or even undermine the progress and implementation of China's strategy. America's temporary wait-and-see just leaves China with room and time to act. At present, China not only needs to further communicate and exchange with the United States through existing bilateral or multilateral mechanisms, but also should take some concrete measures to strengthen Sino-US cooperation. At the same time, it makes it more difficult for the United States to interfere or influence the "Belt and Road" strategy, and actively promotes the implementation of the "Belt and Road" strategy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：C932

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