發(fā)布時間：2018-05-25 00:23

  本文選題：金融危機 + 發(fā)生機制��； 參考：《西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著全球經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展,金融創(chuàng)新的應(yīng)用以及信息網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)國際化,各國經(jīng)濟正朝著更加密切的方向推進,然而大家在享受商品經(jīng)濟快速發(fā)展帶來的成果的同時也在不斷承受金融危機帶來的巨大災(zāi)難。1933年美國大蕭條后,在一個長期過度階段中,各國又在承受大大小小危機打擊,尤其近二十年來,伴隨全球經(jīng)濟快速發(fā)展,危機爆發(fā)次數(shù)不斷增加：1992年爆發(fā)了歐洲貨幣體系危機,1994年爆發(fā)了墨西哥金融危機,1997年又爆發(fā)了亞洲金融危機,1998年相繼發(fā)生了俄羅斯、巴西金融危機,進入21世紀又爆發(fā)了令人觸目驚心的美國次貸危機,由其引發(fā)的全球恐慌與經(jīng)濟蕭條導(dǎo)致各國經(jīng)濟嚴重下滑�；�于此,探究金融危機爆發(fā)深層次原因及其發(fā)生機制從而提出防治性建議已經(jīng)迫在眉睫。 然而筆者在查閱以前學(xué)者研究成果后發(fā)現(xiàn),大部分學(xué)者對危機爆發(fā)原因集中于貨幣層面引發(fā)的危機,更多將危機爆發(fā)根源歸結(jié)于貨幣層面如貨幣不穩(wěn)定引發(fā)通脹與緊縮、金融創(chuàng)新過度與監(jiān)管缺失、虛擬經(jīng)濟過度膨脹等角度,很少有學(xué)者從危機爆發(fā)前實體產(chǎn)業(yè)是否平衡發(fā)展等角度去探究危機更深層次原因,即使有學(xué)者從實體經(jīng)濟角度或者實體經(jīng)濟與虛擬經(jīng)濟角度進行研究,也都為了單一解決某一問題而提出,缺乏全面性,同時雖然學(xué)者對危機爆發(fā)原因做了大量研究,但對于危機是如何層層遞進由失衡到助推過程然后到泡沫破裂進而爆發(fā)全球性金融危機即危機發(fā)生機制的系統(tǒng)性研究較少。 基于金融危機頻發(fā)的現(xiàn)實與理論研究的不足,本文在學(xué)者們已有研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,從實體經(jīng)濟層面、貨幣層面以及實體經(jīng)濟與虛擬經(jīng)濟協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展層面系統(tǒng)研究金融危機的原因,進而剖析從根源到助推過程再到危機爆發(fā)層層遞進的金融危機的發(fā)生機制,并針對金融危機的各層次原因和發(fā)生機制,提出具有參考價值的防治對策。 本文共分六章展開研究：第一章是緒論,主要介紹文章選題背景與研究意義,同時指出文章的創(chuàng)新與不足之處；第二章為文獻綜述,通過總結(jié)國內(nèi)外學(xué)者從各個角度對金融危機發(fā)生原因的研究,找出當前研究的不足之處,從而突出本文研究創(chuàng)新點；第三章為金融危機的內(nèi)涵與原因,主要從理論上對金融危機的概念、分類以及表現(xiàn)進行一個系統(tǒng)的總結(jié),從而指出當前危機的主要表現(xiàn)與原因,為后文研究危機發(fā)生機制奠定理論基礎(chǔ)；第四章為金融危機發(fā)生機制,從根源到助推過程到危機爆發(fā)層層遞進的研究危機發(fā)生機制；第五章為案例檢驗,主要運用美國08金融危機發(fā)生機制來進一步驗證上述理論研究成果,增加文章說服力;第六章為防治建議,主要在文章上述理論研究基礎(chǔ)上,針對金融危機各層次原因與發(fā)生機制,提出具有參考價值的防治建議。 本文的主要觀點是：金融危機發(fā)生的主要原因來源于實體經(jīng)濟層面,由于實體經(jīng)濟發(fā)展比例失衡(產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)發(fā)展比例失衡與產(chǎn)業(yè)間發(fā)展比例失衡)引發(fā)社會供求失衡,在商業(yè)信用膨脹與投資—儲蓄失衡、進出口失衡以及國際資本流動等多種因素助推下,社會供求失衡演化為產(chǎn)品與虛擬資本供求矛盾下的社會總供求失衡,最終在虛擬經(jīng)濟泡沫膨脹發(fā)展而破滅后爆發(fā)金融危機。金融危機發(fā)生機制便是：金融危機發(fā)生根源為產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)比例失衡與產(chǎn)業(yè)間比例失衡,產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)比例失衡導(dǎo)致社會產(chǎn)品供求失衡與社會貧富差距的加大,產(chǎn)業(yè)間比例失衡導(dǎo)致社會虛擬資本供求失衡,同時第一、二產(chǎn)業(yè)受擠兌,虛擬經(jīng)濟部門發(fā)展迅速。社會供求矛盾與居民消費需求以及企業(yè)資產(chǎn)證券化和社會投機行為催生商業(yè)信用蓬勃發(fā)展,商業(yè)信用的發(fā)展一方面導(dǎo)致社會信貸過度,金融創(chuàng)新加劇,社會投機行為導(dǎo)致虛擬資本泡沫,社會虛假繁榮掩蓋了社會供求矛盾；另一方面,商業(yè)信用下借貸行為增加以及社會供求矛盾、貧富差距增大下居民消費需求推動社會投資—儲蓄失衡,投資嚴重超過儲蓄進一步增加了社會供求矛盾。再者產(chǎn)業(yè)間比例失衡導(dǎo)致實體產(chǎn)業(yè)受擠兌,企業(yè)生產(chǎn)無法滿足社會需求,一國便長期依賴進口,增加了貿(mào)易赤字,同時投資—儲蓄失衡也加劇了進出口失衡,巨大的貿(mào)易赤字一方面引發(fā)本國匯率下降,國際投機資本的沖擊進一步推動匯率下降,嚴重惡化了貿(mào)易赤字,本國為保持國民經(jīng)濟平衡而利用財政赤字彌補貿(mào)易逆差,長期的財政赤字導(dǎo)致匯率進一步貶值以及社會通脹,在一定程度上加劇了本國社會供求失衡。綜上因素的推動下,最終演化為社會總供求失衡,虛擬資本供求失衡、投機加劇引發(fā)的虛擬經(jīng)濟泡沫最終破滅而爆發(fā)金融危機。 本文的主要創(chuàng)新：第一,在剖析危機發(fā)生原因后,發(fā)現(xiàn)危機的爆發(fā)并不是一個短暫的貨幣層面失衡引發(fā),而是在一個長期的實體經(jīng)濟失衡過程中逐步影響金融系統(tǒng),最終虛擬經(jīng)濟泡沫破裂引發(fā)危機,因而危機爆發(fā)根源于實體經(jīng)濟發(fā)展比例失衡；第二,當前大多數(shù)理論研究成果主要集中于研究危機爆發(fā)原因,而對金融危機發(fā)生機制的研究較少,而本文在汲取前人研究經(jīng)驗的基礎(chǔ)上,將分析重點落于危機發(fā)生機制,在借鑒前人研究基礎(chǔ)上,筆者立足于實體經(jīng)濟層面,首先通過由淺入深、由表及里的研究方式對危機爆發(fā)從根源到助推器到爆發(fā)進行一個系統(tǒng)研究分析,指出危機爆發(fā)不簡簡單單源于貨幣層面不穩(wěn)定,而是由于長期實體經(jīng)濟發(fā)展比例失衡引發(fā)社會財富分配不均,社會生產(chǎn)相對過剩與居民消費水平有限之間的矛盾不斷突出,無限的消費需求導(dǎo)致投機、借貸增加,金融監(jiān)管缺失下利益催生金融衍生品層出不窮,虛擬經(jīng)濟過度膨脹,經(jīng)濟泡沫破裂最終爆發(fā)危機。文章力求在開放經(jīng)濟條件下通過馬克思再生產(chǎn)理論中關(guān)于實體經(jīng)濟比例協(xié)調(diào)原理,開放經(jīng)濟條件下的國民收入恒等、投資-儲蓄原理,以及國際資本流動相關(guān)理論,層層邏輯清晰的對危機爆發(fā)各個層面分析透徹,并在此基礎(chǔ)上,利用21世紀發(fā)生的典型危機—美國次貸危機發(fā)生機制來為上述研究理論做一個實例檢驗,增強文章說服力,進而指出危機爆發(fā)的深層次原因來源于實體經(jīng)濟層面,是由于實體經(jīng)濟發(fā)展失衡一步步催生經(jīng)濟泡沫而爆發(fā)金融危機。文章最后在上述研究基礎(chǔ)上,從危機發(fā)生機制的各個層面出發(fā),為當今世界各國提出一些有效防治危機的可借鑒性建議,從而為經(jīng)濟全球化平穩(wěn)發(fā)展做出一些貢獻。 本文的不足在于：文章首先從實體經(jīng)濟比例失衡角度來探究危機發(fā)生根源,而國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻主要基于貨幣層面或者單一的從實體經(jīng)濟與虛擬經(jīng)濟關(guān)系角度研究,所以可供借鑒學(xué)習(xí)的文獻資料比較少,從而本文在文獻查閱和理論方面可能存在不足,同時對于危機發(fā)生機制的研究,更為缺乏,所以在一定程度上給文章研究帶來困難；另一方面,對于危機而言,許多學(xué)者都是從匯率、利率、證券股指等角度搜集數(shù)據(jù)進行研究,而對于產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展狀況數(shù)據(jù)分析較少,這對于從數(shù)據(jù)支撐理論研究方面帶來一些麻煩。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the global economy , the application of financial innovation and the internationalization of information network technology , the economies of all countries are moving in closer direction . However , after the Great Depression of the United States in 1933 , in a long - term over - stage , countries have suffered a big and small crisis . Especially in the past two decades , in the wake of the financial crisis in Europe , the global panic and the economic depression caused by the financial crisis have caused serious economic downturn . Based on this , it is urgent to explore the deep level of the financial crisis and its mechanism to put forward the prevention and control proposals .

However , after consulting the previous scholars ' research results , most scholars have focused on the crisis caused by the monetary level in the crisis of the crisis , which is more deeply rooted in the monetary level , such as the monetary instability , the inflation and contraction , the excessive expansion of the virtual economy , and the lack of comprehensive property . At the same time , the scholars have done a lot of research on the causes of the crisis . However , the systemic study on how the crisis is caused by the imbalance to the boosting process and then the burst of the global financial crisis , namely , the crisis - generating mechanism .

Based on the research results of the financial crisis , this paper studies the causes of financial crisis from the perspective of entity economy , monetary level and real economy and virtual economy , and then analyzes the mechanism of financial crisis from the root cause to the crisis , and puts forward some reference value for preventing and controlling the financial crisis .

This thesis is divided into six chapters : the first chapter is the introduction , mainly introduces the background and the research significance of the article selection , and points out the innovation and deficiency of the article ;
The second chapter provides a review of the causes of the financial crisis at home and abroad , and finds out the shortcomings of the current research , so as to highlight the innovation points in this paper .
The third chapter is the connotation and the cause of the financial crisis , which mainly summarizes the concept , classification and performance of the financial crisis , and points out the main manifestations and causes of the current crisis , and lays a theoretical foundation for the mechanism of the post - crisis research crisis .
The fourth chapter is the mechanism of the financial crisis , from the root causes to the crisis in the crisis .
The fifth chapter is a case study , which mainly applies the mechanism of the US 08 financial crisis to further verify the above - mentioned theoretical research results and increase the persuasive power of the article . Chapter 6 provides some valuable suggestions for prevention and control based on the theoretical research of the financial crisis , which is based on the theoretical research of the financial crisis .

The main reason of the financial crisis is that the main reason of the financial crisis comes from the entity economy , and the imbalance of the supply and demand of the society is caused by the imbalance of the proportion of the real economy and the imbalance between the imbalance of the industry and the international capital flows . The mechanism of the financial crisis is that the imbalance of the supply and demand of the social products and the imbalance of the balance between the industries and the balance of the industry proportion lead to the imbalance of supply and demand of the social products and the development of the virtual economy .
On the other hand , the increase of borrowing behavior under the commercial credit and the contradiction between the supply and demand of the society , the increase of the gap between the rich and the poor , the social investment - savings imbalance , the investment of more than the savings further increase the social supply and demand contradiction .

First , after the analysis of the causes of the crisis , it is found that the outbreak of the crisis is not a short - term monetary - level imbalance , but gradually affects the financial system in the process of a long - term entity ' s economic imbalance , and the final virtual economic bubble bursts into a crisis , so that the crisis is rooted in the imbalance of the entity ' s economic development proportion ;
Second , most of the theoretical research results are mainly focused on the study of the causes of the crisis , and the research on the mechanism of the financial crisis has been reduced .

The deficiency of this paper is : Firstly , the article explores the causes of crisis from the angle of the imbalance of the proportion of the entity economy , and the relevant literatures at home and abroad are mainly based on the angle of monetary level or single entity economy and virtual economy relation .
On the other hand , for the crisis , many scholars have studied the data from the angle of exchange rate , interest rate , stock index and so on .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F831.59

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