發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-28 07:43

  本文選題：系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn) + 金融壓力指數(shù)��； 參考：《安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：從二十世紀(jì)九十年代末的東南亞金融危機(jī),到2008年的次貸危機(jī),再到歐美主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī),近年來在國(guó)際范圍內(nèi)金融危機(jī)不斷頻發(fā),引起各國(guó)的高度重視,金融危機(jī)的防范已經(jīng)成為一個(gè)世界性的課題。我國(guó)經(jīng)過30多年的改革開放,取得了舉世矚目的巨大發(fā)展,但同時(shí)也面臨新的問題,在金融領(lǐng)域尤為突出。完善金融體制,加強(qiáng)金融監(jiān)管與金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范已迫在眉睫。 本文通過對(duì)我國(guó)系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)現(xiàn)狀的分析,總結(jié)國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究文獻(xiàn)和防范措施,利用系統(tǒng)分析的方法,對(duì)我國(guó)金融系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行考察與研究。本文運(yùn)用金融壓力指數(shù)這一概念來解釋我國(guó)系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的產(chǎn)生、變化以及預(yù)測(cè)防范,指標(biāo)體系主要借鑒了Balakrishnan,Danninger,Elekdag and Tytell的構(gòu)建方法,在變量選取上根據(jù)我國(guó)具體國(guó)情,選擇了銀行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利差、股票市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)性和主權(quán)債務(wù)利差等三個(gè)指標(biāo),根據(jù)對(duì)比不同時(shí)期我國(guó)金融壓力指數(shù)的變化反映我國(guó)系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的變化情況。本文還通過構(gòu)建回歸模型驗(yàn)證了金融壓力變化對(duì)GDP的影響,并以此為依據(jù),指出及時(shí)控制防范金融系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)的重要性。文章還依據(jù)以上分析對(duì)系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的防范提出了相關(guān)的政策建議,指出完善現(xiàn)有的金融體制,加強(qiáng)有效的金融監(jiān)管,建立合適的預(yù)警機(jī)制,及時(shí)迅速的作出反應(yīng)是預(yù)防風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的有效途徑。
[Abstract]:From the Southeast Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, to the subprime crisis in 2008, and to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the United States, the financial crisis in the world has been frequent in recent years, which has aroused the high attention of all countries. The prevention of the financial crisis has become a worldwide topic. After 30 years of reform and opening up, China has made a lift. There is a great development in the world, but it is also facing new problems, especially in the financial field. It is imminent to improve the financial system and strengthen financial supervision and financial risk prevention.
Through the analysis of the current situation of systemic financial risk in China, this paper summarizes the relevant research literature at home and abroad and the preventive measures, and makes use of the method of system analysis to investigate and study the financial systemic risk of our country. This paper uses the concept of financial pressure index to explain the emergence, change and prediction of our national financial risk. The index system mainly draws on the construction method of Balakrishnan, Danninger and Elekdag and Tytell. According to the specific national conditions of our country, the index system selects three indexes, such as the risk difference of the banking industry, the volatility of the stock market and the difference of sovereign debt, which reflect the systematic gold of our country according to the changes of the financial pressure index in different periods of China. This paper also validates the impact of financial pressure change on GDP by building a regression model, and points out the importance of timely control of financial systemic risk on sustained and stable growth of China's economy. The article also puts forward relevant policies to prevent the systemic financial risk from the above analysis. It is pointed out that it is an effective way to prevent risk by improving the existing financial system, strengthening effective financial supervision, setting up appropriate early warning mechanism and responding promptly and quickly.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.5;F224

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本文編號(hào)：1945880