發(fā)布時間：2018-06-02 19:13

  本文選題：服務貿易 + 出口復雜度��； 參考：《山西財經大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：當前,隨著服務經濟的迅速崛起,服務業(yè)與服務貿易成為在世界經濟處于危機后調整、恢復階段的發(fā)展引擎。世界經濟服務化明顯,農業(yè)、制造業(yè)與服務業(yè)之間不斷滲透融合,同時,服務業(yè)跨界化、制造業(yè)服務化趨勢深入發(fā)展,與此同時,信息技術的不斷發(fā)展進一步使得服務貿易的組織形式、商業(yè)模式、交易方式、交易對象等都在發(fā)生深刻變革,對產業(yè)結構升級有著重大作用。對于我國而言,正處在經濟轉型發(fā)展的關鍵時期,因此,本文以服務貿易出口復雜度為視角,研究其是否能夠影響我國產業(yè)升級具有一定的意義。服務貿易出口復雜度的提升,說明了出口質量的提高,并且能夠在一定程度上反映服務業(yè)的技術水平及其國際分工地位,繼而服務貿易出口復雜度可以通過服務業(yè)的技術進步和要素轉移來間接的促進產業(yè)升級,本文首先從理論上分析服務貿易出口復雜度能夠影響產業(yè)升級,再通過ADF檢驗、協(xié)整分析和誤差修正模型進行實證檢驗,發(fā)現(xiàn)不管是長期還是短期影響,服務貿易出口復雜度都能夠積極影響我國產業(yè)升級。本文分為以下幾部分:第一部分,理清本文研究思路,明確研究目標,從整體上把握本文研究方向,構建論文整體框架。第二部分,通過對服務貿易出口復雜度與產業(yè)升級的一般分析,從理論上研究服務貿易出口復雜度是否對產業(yè)升級構成影響。第三部分,通過分析服務貿易出口復雜度的現(xiàn)狀,發(fā)現(xiàn)雖然出口復雜度有所提升,但是仍然存在出口數量與質量不匹配的問題,同時發(fā)現(xiàn)出口規(guī)模小、附加值低、逆差嚴重也是我國服務貿易出口存在的主要問題。第四部分,對相關數據運用ADF檢驗、協(xié)整分析、誤差修正模型等計量方法進行服務貿易出口復雜度對我國產業(yè)升級影響的實證檢驗,計量結果顯示服務貿易出口復雜度對我國產業(yè)升級存在積極地影響,對于控制變量而言,研發(fā)投入、外商直接投資對我國產業(yè)升級存在積極地影響,人力資本雖然對產業(yè)升級沒有積極影響,但是人力資本卻與產業(yè)升級密切相關。這個實證結果為政策制定者提供了依據。最后,在理論研究與實證檢驗的基礎上,對如何提升我國服務貿易出口復雜度和產業(yè)升級提出相應的政策建議。結合我國國情,在有限的資源條件下,通過優(yōu)化服務貿易的出口結構、優(yōu)化人力資本配置、加大研發(fā)投入、適當引入外商直接投資,提升我國服務貿易出口復雜度,進而推動我國產業(yè)結構優(yōu)化升級。
[Abstract]:At present, with the rapid rise of the service economy, service industry and service trade have become the development engine of the adjustment and recovery stage of the world economy after the crisis. The world economy is becoming more and more service-oriented, and the integration of agriculture, manufacturing industry and service industry is constantly permeating. At the same time, the service industry is crossing the border, and the trend of service-oriented manufacturing industry is deepening. At the same time, With the continuous development of information technology, the organization, business model, transaction mode and trading object of service trade are undergoing profound changes, which plays an important role in upgrading the industrial structure. For our country, it is in the key period of economic transformation and development. Therefore, it is meaningful for this paper to study whether it can affect the industrial upgrading of our country from the perspective of the complexity of export of service trade. The increasing complexity of the export of service trade shows the improvement of export quality, and to some extent, it can reflect the technical level of the service industry and its position in international division of labor. Then the complexity of the export of service trade can indirectly promote the industrial upgrading through the technological progress and factor transfer of the service industry. Firstly, this paper analyzes theoretically that the complexity of the export of service trade can affect the industrial upgrading, and then passes the ADF test. Cointegration analysis and error correction model are used to test, it is found that both long-term and short-term effects, export complexity of service trade can positively affect China's industrial upgrading. This paper is divided into the following parts: the first part, clear the research ideas, clear research objectives, from the overall grasp of the direction of this study, build the overall framework of the paper. In the second part, through the general analysis of the complexity of export of service trade and the upgrading of industry, the author studies theoretically whether the complexity of export of trade in services has an effect on the upgrading of industry. In the third part, by analyzing the current situation of the complexity of the export of trade in services, we find that although the complexity of the export has increased, there is still the problem that the quantity and quality of the export are not matched. At the same time, it is found that the export scale is small and the added value is low. The serious deficit is also the main problem of our country's service trade export. In the fourth part, we use ADF test, cointegration analysis, error correction model and other measurement methods to test the impact of export complexity of service trade on China's industrial upgrading. The measurement results show that the complexity of export of service trade has a positive impact on China's industrial upgrading. For control variables, R & D investment and foreign direct investment have a positive impact on China's industrial upgrading. Although human capital has no positive effect on industrial upgrading, human capital is closely related to industrial upgrading. This empirical result provides a basis for policy makers. Finally, on the basis of theoretical research and empirical test, this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations on how to improve the complexity of China's export of service trade and industrial upgrading. According to the situation of our country, under the condition of limited resources, by optimizing the export structure of service trade, optimizing human capital allocation, increasing R & D investment, introducing foreign direct investment appropriately, increasing the complexity of China's export of service trade, And then promote the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure.
【學位授予單位】：山西財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F121.3;F752.62

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