發(fā)布時間：2018-10-17 09:37

【摘要】：在世界貿(mào)易不平衡的經(jīng)濟背景下,我國面臨著匯率制度的迫切改革的需要,經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展也急需人民幣匯率制度的市場化,同時我國面臨著西方資本主義國家強烈的升值壓力；另一方面,牙買加體系以來,隨著外匯市場的全球化,來自于外界的匯率沖擊越來越多,且匯率影響逐漸深入到國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟的各個領(lǐng)域。本文通過在國內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于匯率波動研究的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了開放經(jīng)濟條件下的DSGE模型,研究了匯率的形成機制,并將匯率沖擊擴展為預(yù)期到的與未預(yù)期到的沖擊,同時結(jié)合我國實際情況對模型參數(shù)進行了設(shè)定。最終通過脈沖響應(yīng)的分析方法研究了預(yù)期到的與未預(yù)期到的匯率沖擊的影響,并對比了經(jīng)濟變量不同匯率制度及開放條件應(yīng)對匯率沖擊時的反應(yīng)程度。實證研究表明：當(dāng)市場存在價格粘性及市場未及時出清時,預(yù)期到的匯率沖擊與未預(yù)期到的匯率沖擊均會經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生影響。無論是自由的浮動匯率制度還是有管理的浮動匯率制度下,或者開放程度不一的情況下,預(yù)期到的匯率沖擊總是產(chǎn)生較小的經(jīng)濟波動,但是兩者造成經(jīng)濟波動的周期需根據(jù)具體情況而言。在外匯市場上,更開放的經(jīng)濟制度或者更自由的匯率制度下,市場的外在沖擊將對本國經(jīng)濟造成較大的波動,同時說明我國目前采用的有管理的浮動匯率制度是合理的,是符合目前中國的經(jīng)濟國情的。當(dāng)一國進行對外開放及匯率市場化改革時,不合理的匯改造成的影響要大于過度的開放,即改革時,首先加大實體經(jīng)濟的國際化接軌的方法更加穩(wěn)健。
[Abstract]:Under the economic background of unbalanced world trade, China is faced with the urgent need of the reform of the exchange rate system, the marketization of the RMB exchange rate system in the development of the economy, and the intense pressure of appreciation of the western capitalist countries at the same time. On the other hand, with the globalization of the foreign exchange market since Jamaica's system, more and more foreign exchange rate shocks come from the outside world, and the exchange rate impact has gradually penetrated into various fields of domestic economy. On the basis of the research on exchange rate fluctuation, this paper constructs the DSGE model in open economy, studies the mechanism of exchange rate formation, and extends the exchange rate shock to expected and unexpected shocks. At the same time, the model parameters are set according to the actual situation in our country. Finally, the effects of expected and unexpected exchange rate shocks are studied by the method of impulse response, and the response degree of different exchange rate regimes and open conditions of economic variables to exchange rate shocks is compared. The empirical study shows that when there is price stickiness in the market and the market is not clear in time, the expected exchange rate shock and the unexpected exchange rate shock will have an impact on the economy. Whether it is a free floating exchange rate system, a managed floating exchange rate regime, or varying degrees of openness, the expected exchange rate shocks always produce smaller economic fluctuations, But the cycles that cause economic fluctuations need to be based on specific circumstances. In the foreign exchange market, under a more open economic system or a freer exchange rate system, the external impact of the market will cause greater fluctuations in the domestic economy. At the same time, it shows that the managed floating exchange rate system currently used in our country is reasonable. Is in line with the current economic conditions of China. When a country is open to the outside world and the exchange rate is market-oriented, the impact of unreasonable exchange rate reform is greater than that of excessive opening, that is, when the reform is carried out, the method of increasing the internationalization of the real economy is more stable.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6;F124

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本文編號：2276255