反傾銷調(diào)查“恐懼效應(yīng)”的判定及效力測度分析
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-08 20:22
【摘要】：反傾銷調(diào)查除了產(chǎn)生已廣為人知的貿(mào)易限制、貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移、繼發(fā)保護等效應(yīng)之外,是否還會產(chǎn)生導(dǎo)致被控傾銷國出口至第三方市場數(shù)量下降的所謂“恐懼效應(yīng)”?運用統(tǒng)計和計量的手段回答這一問題的邏輯和方法是全面認識和科學(xué)判定反傾銷貿(mào)易效應(yīng)的技術(shù)關(guān)鍵。本文以歐盟對華無縫鋼管以及獨聯(lián)體國家對華彩涂板反傾銷調(diào)查案件為例,在大量涉案貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,遵循先遴選后排除的思路,運用Chow突變點檢驗、虛擬變量模型、Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗和分位數(shù)回歸等方法和手段,通過對比分析,在示范性地演示反傾銷調(diào)查“恐懼效應(yīng)”判定方法和程序從而為國際貿(mào)易活動中類似效應(yīng)的檢驗提供可能評測范式的同時,回答了反傾銷調(diào)查是否必然存在“恐懼效應(yīng)”這一問題。在此基礎(chǔ)上,運用聚類分析法對反傾銷調(diào)查“恐懼效應(yīng)”進行效力測度,得出如下結(jié)論:歐盟反傾銷調(diào)查是我國無縫鋼管出口美國市場大幅下滑的直接原因,本文將此稱作反傾銷調(diào)查的“恐懼效應(yīng)”。與此同時,對中國無縫鋼管主要出口的23個國家進行聚類分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)反傾銷調(diào)查“恐懼效應(yīng)”只發(fā)生在美國,并未傳導(dǎo)至其他國家。
[Abstract]:In addition to the well-known effects of trade restrictions, trade transfers and secondary protection, will anti-dumping investigations have the so-called "fear effect" that leads to a decline in the number of alleged dumping countries exporting to third-party markets? The logic and method of answering this question by means of statistics and metrology is the technical key to comprehensively understand and scientifically judge the effect of anti-dumping trade. Taking the European Union seamless steel tubes and the CIS countries' anti-dumping investigation cases against China as an example, on the basis of a large number of trade data involved, following the idea of first selecting and then excluding, using Chow mutation point test, virtual variable model, Methods and means of Granger causality test and quantile regression were compared and analyzed. While demonstrating exemplary methods and procedures for determining the "fear effect" of anti-dumping investigations, thus providing a paradigm for possible evaluation of similar effects in international trade activities, It answers the question whether the anti-dumping investigation must have "fear effect". On this basis, the validity of the "fear effect" of anti-dumping investigation is measured by cluster analysis, and the following conclusions are drawn: the European Union anti-dumping investigation is the direct reason for the sharp decline of China's seamless steel pipe exports to the United States market. This article calls this the "fear effect" of the anti-dumping investigation. At the same time, the cluster analysis of 23 countries that China mainly exports seamless steel pipes shows that the "fear effect" of anti-dumping investigation only occurred in the United States and did not transmit to other countries.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國計量學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F416.31;F752.02;F755
[Abstract]:In addition to the well-known effects of trade restrictions, trade transfers and secondary protection, will anti-dumping investigations have the so-called "fear effect" that leads to a decline in the number of alleged dumping countries exporting to third-party markets? The logic and method of answering this question by means of statistics and metrology is the technical key to comprehensively understand and scientifically judge the effect of anti-dumping trade. Taking the European Union seamless steel tubes and the CIS countries' anti-dumping investigation cases against China as an example, on the basis of a large number of trade data involved, following the idea of first selecting and then excluding, using Chow mutation point test, virtual variable model, Methods and means of Granger causality test and quantile regression were compared and analyzed. While demonstrating exemplary methods and procedures for determining the "fear effect" of anti-dumping investigations, thus providing a paradigm for possible evaluation of similar effects in international trade activities, It answers the question whether the anti-dumping investigation must have "fear effect". On this basis, the validity of the "fear effect" of anti-dumping investigation is measured by cluster analysis, and the following conclusions are drawn: the European Union anti-dumping investigation is the direct reason for the sharp decline of China's seamless steel pipe exports to the United States market. This article calls this the "fear effect" of the anti-dumping investigation. At the same time, the cluster analysis of 23 countries that China mainly exports seamless steel pipes shows that the "fear effect" of anti-dumping investigation only occurred in the United States and did not transmit to other countries.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國計量學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F416.31;F752.02;F755
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