發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-11 23:15

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：吐魯番綠洲生態(tài)-生產(chǎn)-生活承載力演變趨勢(shì)研究　出處：《新疆大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 綠洲承載力 生態(tài)承載力 生產(chǎn)承載力 系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué) 可持續(xù)發(fā)展

【摘要】：綠洲是干旱區(qū)人類生存與發(fā)展基地。綠洲的發(fā)展對(duì)綠洲承載力帶來(lái)壓力,并且綠洲承載力是約束綠洲發(fā)展和建設(shè)的重要因素。而且綠洲承載力是由社會(huì)子系統(tǒng)、生態(tài)子系統(tǒng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)子系統(tǒng)構(gòu)成的復(fù)合大系統(tǒng),是一個(gè)復(fù)雜的耗散結(jié)構(gòu)體系。吐魯番地區(qū)是中國(guó)西北干旱地區(qū),是西域地區(qū)人文風(fēng)情、自然生態(tài)環(huán)境和綠洲農(nóng)業(yè)的典型。根據(jù)生態(tài)、生產(chǎn)、生活系統(tǒng)之間的耦合關(guān)系,建立系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型,預(yù)測(cè)模擬吐魯番綠洲“三生”承載力變化趨勢(shì),在這基礎(chǔ)上探索吐魯番綠洲最優(yōu)發(fā)展規(guī)劃。根據(jù)總結(jié)前人研究成果,以綠洲可持續(xù)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展背景下,選取84個(gè)參數(shù),利用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)軟件STELLA建立模型,通過仿真結(jié)果與歷史數(shù)據(jù)的對(duì)比分析,驗(yàn)證模型可靠性。以屬于干旱區(qū)的吐魯番綠洲為研究對(duì)象,將其可持續(xù)指標(biāo)體系引入綠洲承載力的評(píng)價(jià),以多種參數(shù)的調(diào)控下,設(shè)計(jì)四種發(fā)展模式,針對(duì)不同發(fā)展模式下的綠洲生態(tài)、生產(chǎn)、生活承載力進(jìn)行動(dòng)態(tài)仿真與分析。其主要研究結(jié)果是:本文對(duì)吐魯番綠洲生態(tài)系統(tǒng)、生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)、生活系統(tǒng)承載力進(jìn)行了模擬分析、研究結(jié)果表明,在當(dāng)前的發(fā)展模式下2030年吐魯番地區(qū)的人口總量將達(dá)到78萬(wàn)人,在2010年的基礎(chǔ)上增長(zhǎng)了16萬(wàn)人,平均每年增長(zhǎng)7681人口,城市化率降到37%,GDP與人均GDP分別達(dá)到1548億元、19萬(wàn)元,固定資產(chǎn)投資增長(zhǎng)到1096億元,2010年水資源總量為12.21×108m3、耕地面積為35204ha,但是到了2030年水資源總量降到4.13×108m3,耕地面積降到27667ha。數(shù)據(jù)可以顯示,人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)等子系統(tǒng)已達(dá)到社會(huì)發(fā)展目標(biāo)。但是經(jīng)濟(jì)、人口增長(zhǎng)推動(dòng)下,水資源與耕地面積不斷下降,灌溉面積不斷增長(zhǎng),資源的開發(fā)量遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出補(bǔ)給量。這使水資源承載力與耕地承載力下降。由于水資源、投入和人口對(duì)綠洲生態(tài)承載力、生產(chǎn)承載力和生活承載力變化成為決定性作用的核心驅(qū)動(dòng)因子,影響生態(tài)承載力的水資源因子與耕地因子逐漸下降,說(shuō)明生態(tài)承載力也在下降。經(jīng)濟(jì)承載因子在上升的趨勢(shì),說(shuō)明生產(chǎn)承載力在上升。由于人均水資源與人均耕地面積在下降,因此生活承載力也是在下降。通過情景模擬對(duì)比,推薦將2010-2030年吐魯番綠洲農(nóng)業(yè)、工業(yè)增長(zhǎng)率分別維持在11%、9%左右,鄉(xiāng)村人口、城鎮(zhèn)人口增長(zhǎng)率分別控制在2.5%,1%,把耕地面積增長(zhǎng)率4%、減少率控制在2%,灌溉面積增長(zhǎng)率控制在2.1%,地表水、地下水開發(fā)率分別降低為2.4%、3.8%。在此方案下,城市化率就不斷增長(zhǎng),2030年達(dá)到50%。到2030年耕地面積達(dá)到70074公頃,比在2010年47158公頃增長(zhǎng)了22916公頃。到2030年地表水減少到7.3013億m3,而地下水資源量降到1.59億m3,這比傳統(tǒng)發(fā)展模式節(jié)約了4億m3左右的用水量,耕地面積也比傳統(tǒng)發(fā)展模式的增長(zhǎng)了42407公頃左右面積。同時(shí),水資源承載力、經(jīng)濟(jì)承載力、耕地承載力也處于相對(duì)平衡狀態(tài)。2001-2030年的水資源承載力指數(shù)在0.34-0.35之間、耕地承載力指數(shù)在0.52-0.53之間,經(jīng)濟(jì)承載力指數(shù)從0.47增長(zhǎng)到0.95。水資源承載因子與耕地承載因子的相對(duì)平衡狀態(tài)下,生態(tài)承載力與生活承載力會(huì)逐漸上身,在經(jīng)濟(jì)承載因子的逐漸上身的驅(qū)使下,生產(chǎn)承載力也會(huì)不斷增加。因此我們推薦情景模擬四為吐魯番綠洲可持續(xù)發(fā)展的最佳模式。
[Abstract]:Oasis is the base of human survival and development in arid areas. To bring pressure on the development of oasis oasis capacity, and oasis capacity is an important factor to constraint the development and construction of oasis and oasis capacity is determined by the social system, composite system composed of ecological subsystem and economic subsystem, is a complex dissipative structure system. The area of Turpan is the arid area of Northwest China, is the western region culture and customs, the typical natural ecological environment and oasis agriculture. According to ecology, production and life system coupling relationship between the established system dynamics model, force change trend forecast simulation of Turpan oasis "Sansheng" bearing, explore Turpan Oasis optimal development planning on this basis according to the results of previous studies, to the sustainable development of the oasis background, 84 parameters are selected, by using system dynamics software STELLA to establish the model, through A comparative analysis of simulation results and historical data, in order to validate the model. It belongs to the arid area of Turpan oasis as the research object, the sustainable index system is introduced to evaluate the bearing capacity of oasis, to regulate a variety of parameters, four kinds of development model design, according to the different development mode of the oasis ecological carrying capacity, production, life dynamic simulation and analysis. The main results are: the Turpan oasis ecosystem, production system, the bearing capacity of life system are analyzed, the results show that the total population in the current development model under the 2030 Turpan area will reach 780 thousand people, an increase of 160 thousand in 2010 based on the average. The annual growth rate of 7681 of the population, the city fell to 37%, GDP and GDP per capita reached 154 billion 800 million yuan, 190 thousand yuan, the growth of investment in fixed assets to 109 billion 600 million yuan, the total amount of water resources in 2010 12.21 * 108m3, cultivated land area of 35204ha, but the total amount of water resources in 2030 dropped to 4.13 * 108m3, arable land area decreased to 27667ha. data can be displayed, population, economy etc. the system has reached the goal of social development. But the economy, driven by population growth, water resources and cultivated land area decreased, irrigation area is growing, development resources far beyond recharge. The carrying capacity of water resources and land bearing capacity decreased. Because the water resources, investment and population carrying capacity of oasis ecology, production capacity and life bearing capacity change has become the core of the decisive role of the driving factors, influence factors of water resources carrying capacity and ecological factors of cultivated land decreased gradually, that is on the decline of ecological carrying capacity. Economic carrying factor in the rising trend, the production capacity is on the rise. The area per capita water resources and cultivated land per capita in decline, so the bearing capacity of life Is on the decline. By comparing the simulation scenario, recommended 2010-2030 years of Turpan oasis agriculture, industrial growth rate remained at 11%, about 9% of the rural population, the urban population growth rate at 2.5%, 1%, the cultivated area growth rate 4%, reduced rate of 2% in the control, the irrigation area growth rate of 2.1% in the control. Surface water, groundwater exploitation rates were reduced to 2.4% 3.8%., under this scheme, the city rate would increase, in 2030 2030 to reach 50%. cultivated area reached 70074 hectares, 47158 hectares in 2010 than in 2030 increased by 22916 hectares. The surface water is reduced to 730 million 130 thousand M3, and the amount of groundwater resources is reduced to 159 million m3, which is more than the traditional development mode saves about 400 million m3 water, arable land area is higher than the traditional development mode of growth of 42407 hectares area. At the same time, the water resources carrying capacity, economic capacity, land carrying capacity is relatively flat The water resources carrying capacity index.2001-2030 equilibrium between 0.34-0.35, land carrying capacity index between 0.52-0.53, the relative balance of power to the 0.95. index of economic carrying water resources from 0.47 growth factors and factors of cultivated land carrying capacity, ecological carrying capacity of the upper part of the body will gradually force and life, driven by economic factors gradually bearing body under the production capacity will continue to increase. So we recommend scenario four is the best mode of Turpan oasis sustainable development.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：新疆大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F127;X22

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本文編號(hào)：1411658