發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-10 14:42

【摘要】：隨著城市經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長,人民越來越依賴車輛出行,不僅導(dǎo)致城市機(jī)動(dòng)車數(shù)量的增加,而且也促使人民出行次數(shù)的增長,給城市道路交通系統(tǒng)帶來了困難,也導(dǎo)致城市的停車問題成為不得不面臨的難題。特別是城市中心區(qū),土地資源短缺,更加加速了車輛增長和停車供用的矛盾。隨著人民對城市交通系統(tǒng)和停車規(guī)劃的認(rèn)識(shí)增加,越來越關(guān)注城市道路網(wǎng)的路網(wǎng)容量對區(qū)域停車規(guī)模的影響。鑒于此,本文以城市中心區(qū)的停車合理規(guī)模作為研究對象,分析路網(wǎng)容量對城市中心區(qū)停車合理規(guī)模影響,展開基于路網(wǎng)容量的區(qū)域停車場合理規(guī)模研究。 首先,本文通過城市中心區(qū)和路網(wǎng)容量的理論分析,城市中心區(qū)的路網(wǎng)容量重新定義。并針對城市中心區(qū)路網(wǎng)容量的特點(diǎn),分析了中心區(qū)路網(wǎng)容量的影響因素,新增占道停車對路網(wǎng)容量的影響,在時(shí)空消耗法的基礎(chǔ)上,建立了路網(wǎng)容量的計(jì)算模型,提高了路網(wǎng)容量的計(jì)算精度。 接著,分析城市中心區(qū)停車場分類、停車需求的定義和行為特征,總結(jié)城市中心區(qū)的停車需求特征,并詳細(xì)分析停車特性指標(biāo)。在此基礎(chǔ)上,分析停車需求的影響因素,重點(diǎn)分析路網(wǎng)容量影響中心區(qū)停車場規(guī)模的作用機(jī)理。 然后,在分析各類停車需求預(yù)測模型基礎(chǔ)上,用分類處理的方法預(yù)測城市中心區(qū)的停車規(guī)模。通過小汽車增長率和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率的加權(quán)處理,得出專用停車場預(yù)測的平均增長率,采用平均增長率法預(yù)測城市中心區(qū)的專用停車場規(guī)模。選用基于OD出行的交通量模型作為預(yù)測公共停車場規(guī)模的基礎(chǔ)模型,在穿越交通影響因子的約束下,新增路網(wǎng)容量影響因子建立公共停車場停車需求預(yù)測模型,并采用高峰小時(shí)的停車平均增長率和年第30位停車需求量與年平均停車需求量的比值來修正。分析路內(nèi)停車場的主要影響因素,選用歷年路內(nèi)停車泊位的平均增長率預(yù)測城市中心區(qū)的路內(nèi)停車場規(guī)模。通過上面三者的結(jié)合,最終創(chuàng)建基于路網(wǎng)容量的城市中心區(qū)停車合理規(guī)模模型。 接著,通過分析建立評價(jià)指標(biāo)的原則,以及現(xiàn)有停車場規(guī)劃的評價(jià)指標(biāo),采用系統(tǒng)工程的相關(guān)原理與方法,建立針對預(yù)測結(jié)果的評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,運(yùn)用模糊數(shù)學(xué)理論、對比分析和層次分析法,建立停車預(yù)測結(jié)果準(zhǔn)確度層次結(jié)構(gòu)模型,來評價(jià)預(yù)測結(jié)果。 最后,以重慶觀音橋商圈為案例進(jìn)行實(shí)例證明,分析觀音橋商圈的停車問題,運(yùn)用基于路網(wǎng)容量的城市中心區(qū)停車合理規(guī)模模型進(jìn)行預(yù)測,驗(yàn)證模型的準(zhǔn)確度,為以后的停車規(guī)模預(yù)測提供更好的依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the rapid growth of urban economy, people rely more and more on vehicle travel, which not only leads to the increase of the number of urban motor vehicles, but also promotes the increase of people's travel times, which brings difficulties to the urban road traffic system. Also causes the city parking question to become the difficult problem which has to face. Especially in the urban center, the shortage of land resources accelerates the growth of vehicles and parking. With the increasing awareness of urban traffic system and parking planning, more and more attention has been paid to the influence of the network capacity of urban road network on regional parking scale. In view of this, this paper takes the reasonable parking scale of the central district as the research object, analyzes the influence of the road network capacity on the reasonable parking scale of the urban center area, and carries out the research on the reasonable scale of the regional parking lot based on the network capacity. Firstly, the paper redefines the network capacity of urban center area by theoretical analysis of urban center area and road network capacity. According to the characteristics of the network capacity in the central district, the influence factors of the network capacity in the central area and the influence of the new parking on the capacity of the road network are analyzed. The calculation model of the network capacity is established on the basis of the space-time consumption method. The calculation accuracy of network capacity is improved. Then, it analyzes the classification of parking area, the definition and behavior characteristics of parking demand, summarizes the characteristics of parking demand in urban center area, and analyzes the parking characteristic index in detail. On this basis, the influencing factors of parking demand are analyzed, and the mechanism of the influence of road network capacity on the parking lot scale in central area is analyzed. Then, on the basis of analyzing all kinds of parking demand forecasting models, the parking scale of urban center district is predicted by the method of classification. Through the weighted processing of car growth rate and economic growth rate, the average growth rate of special parking lot is obtained, and the average growth rate method is used to predict the scale of special parking lot in urban center area. The traffic volume model based on OD is selected as the basic model to predict the scale of public parking lot. Under the constraint of traversing traffic influence factors, the forecast model of parking demand of public parking lot is established by adding the influence factor of road network capacity. The average growth rate of the peak hour parking and the ratio of the 30th place parking demand to the annual average parking demand are used to modify the model. Based on the analysis of the main influencing factors of the on-street parking lot, the average growth rate of the on-street parking spaces over the years is used to predict the in-road parking lot size in the central district of the city. Finally, a reasonable parking scale model based on network capacity is established. Then, by analyzing the principle of establishing evaluation index and the evaluation index of existing parking lot planning, adopting the relevant principles and methods of system engineering, the evaluation index system for the forecast result is established, and the fuzzy mathematics theory is used. Comparative analysis and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) are used to establish a hierarchy model of parking prediction accuracy to evaluate the prediction results. Finally, taking Chongqing Guanyinqiao commercial district as an example, the paper analyzes the parking problem of Guanyinqiao commercial district, and uses the reasonable parking scale model based on network capacity to predict and verify the accuracy of the model. It provides a better basis for the prediction of parking scale in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U491.7

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