發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-15 16:59

【摘要】：隨著廣珠城軌的開通運(yùn)營(yíng)，廣珠通道內(nèi)原有的運(yùn)輸格局被打破，公路客運(yùn)長(zhǎng)期的壟斷地位受到嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)和巨大的沖擊。因此，從兩種運(yùn)輸方式的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展和有序競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的角度出發(fā)，采用旅客出行問卷調(diào)查深入研究廣珠通道內(nèi)旅客出行特征，有助于揭示廣珠通道旅客出行方式選擇的規(guī)律，為制定公路客運(yùn)企業(yè)應(yīng)對(duì)廣珠城軌競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的相關(guān)對(duì)策奠定理論基礎(chǔ)。 論文在對(duì)比分析行為調(diào)查和意向調(diào)查優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)的基礎(chǔ)上，提出采用基于行為調(diào)查和意向調(diào)查聯(lián)合的調(diào)查方法對(duì)廣珠通道內(nèi)旅客出行方式選擇行為進(jìn)行調(diào)查；通過對(duì)運(yùn)輸方式的供給特性和旅客出行的需求特性進(jìn)行分析，完成調(diào)查問卷內(nèi)容的設(shè)計(jì)；采用簡(jiǎn)單隨機(jī)抽樣調(diào)查的方法確定調(diào)查樣本量，并闡述調(diào)查的實(shí)施過程。從旅客個(gè)人屬性特征、旅客出行特征和旅客對(duì)運(yùn)輸方式的認(rèn)知特性三個(gè)方面，論文分析廣珠通道旅客出行特征。在對(duì)比分析非集計(jì)方法優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)的基礎(chǔ)上，提出二項(xiàng)Logit模型構(gòu)建廣珠通道內(nèi)客流分擔(dān)率預(yù)測(cè)模型；按照加法規(guī)則，，從經(jīng)濟(jì)性、舒適性、安全性、服務(wù)質(zhì)量、快捷性和方便性六個(gè)方面構(gòu)建效用函數(shù)，并采用無(wú)量綱化方法對(duì)變量進(jìn)行無(wú)量綱化處理；通過構(gòu)建的廣珠通道內(nèi)客流分擔(dān)率預(yù)測(cè)2014年兩種運(yùn)輸方式的分擔(dān)率，并采用敏感性分析方法探討公路客運(yùn)企業(yè)的應(yīng)對(duì)措施的效果。主要從微觀、中觀、宏觀三個(gè)層面全方位地提出公路客運(yùn)的應(yīng)對(duì)策略。
[Abstract]:With the opening and operation of the Guangzhu rail, the original transportation pattern in the Guangzhu channel has been broken, and the long-term monopoly position of highway passenger transport has been severely challenged and greatly impacted. Therefore, from the perspective of coordinated development and orderly competition of the two modes of transportation, the use of passenger travel questionnaires to study the travel characteristics of passengers in the Guangzhou-Zhuhai corridor will help to reveal the rules of the choice of travel modes for passengers in the Guangzhou-Zhuhai corridor. It lays a theoretical foundation for road passenger transport enterprises to deal with the competition of Guangzhou-Zhuhai rail. On the basis of comparing and analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of behavioral survey and intention survey, the paper proposes to adopt the method of combining behavioral survey and intention investigation to investigate the choice of travel mode in Guangzhu corridor. Through the analysis of the supply characteristics of transportation mode and the demand characteristics of passenger travel, the design of the questionnaire is completed, and the sample quantity of the survey is determined by the method of simple random sampling survey, and the implementation process of the survey is described. This paper analyzes the travel characteristics of Guangzhu passageway from three aspects: personal attributes of passengers, travel characteristics of passengers and cognitive characteristics of transport modes. Based on the comparative analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the disaggregate method, a two-term Logit model is proposed to predict the passenger flow rate in the Guangzhou-Zhuhai channel, which is based on the addition rules, from the aspects of economy, comfort, security, quality of service, etc. The utility function is constructed from the six aspects of quickness and convenience, and the dimensionless method is used to deal with the variables in a dimensionless way, and the passenger flow sharing rate in the Guangzhu Channel is used to predict the share rate of the two modes of transportation in 2014. And the sensitivity analysis method is used to discuss the effect of the countermeasures of highway passenger transport enterprises. Mainly from the micro-level, meso-view, macro-level of three-dimensional road passenger transport response strategy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U492.4

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