發(fā)布時間：2018-08-25 19:59

【摘要】：本文基于應(yīng)急資源配置的災(zāi)前預(yù)防準(zhǔn)備和災(zāi)后的響應(yīng)分配,在多類應(yīng)急資源配置選址-路徑優(yōu)化名義模型的基礎(chǔ)上,考慮多類應(yīng)急資源成本的不確定性,引入兩類不確定集合(box和ellipsoid)刻畫該不確定性,分別建立多類應(yīng)急資源魯棒選址-路徑優(yōu)化模型,運用魯棒優(yōu)化方法,將其轉(zhuǎn)化為易求解處理的魯棒等價模型,并通過CPLEX和GAMS混合編程算法求解。最后,本文對我國四川北部和西部自然災(zāi)害多發(fā)區(qū)的19個縣市進行應(yīng)急資源優(yōu)化配置分析,確定應(yīng)急資源臨時供應(yīng)點的最優(yōu)選址布局、應(yīng)急資源的分配路徑,同時考慮擾動比例的靈敏度分析,驗證模型的可行性和有效性。結(jié)果表明在其他條件相同的情況下,ellipsoid不確定集合下的魯棒模型較保守,配置的總成本較高,因此決策者可以根據(jù)自己的風(fēng)險厭惡程度選擇不確定水平參數(shù)的值,確定應(yīng)急資源的配置方案,進而為相關(guān)應(yīng)急救災(zāi)部門在災(zāi)前預(yù)防準(zhǔn)備工作提供決策支持。
[Abstract]:In this paper, based on the pre-disaster preparedness and post-disaster response allocation of emergency resource allocation, based on the notional model of location-path optimization for multi-type emergency resource allocation, the uncertainty of multi-type emergency resource cost is considered. Two classes of uncertain sets (box and ellipsoid) are introduced to characterize the uncertainty. The robust site-path optimization model of multi-class emergency resources is established, and the robust equivalent model is transformed into a robust equivalent model which is easy to solve by using robust optimization method. And the solution is solved by CPLEX and GAMS hybrid programming algorithm. Finally, this paper analyzes the optimal allocation of emergency resources in 19 counties and cities in the northern and western regions of Sichuan Province, and determines the optimal location and distribution of emergency resources. At the same time, the sensitivity analysis of disturbance ratio is considered to verify the feasibility and validity of the model. The results show that the robust model under the same conditions is more conservative and the total cost of configuration is higher, so the decision makers can choose the value of the uncertain level parameters according to their risk aversion. To determine the allocation of emergency resources, and then to provide decision support for relevant emergency relief departments in pre-disaster preparedness.
【作者單位】： 北京理工大學(xué)管理與經(jīng)濟學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金資助重點項目(71432002);國家自然科學(xué)基金面上資助項目(71172172) 北京理工大學(xué)研究生國際學(xué)術(shù)交流項目(1320012351601)
【分類號】：O224

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本文編號：2203948