發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-11 19:25

  本文選題：案例推理　切入點(diǎn)：供應(yīng)鏈外部不確定性　出處：《吉林大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：供應(yīng)鏈在幾十年的發(fā)展演變中不斷得到突破，供應(yīng)鏈的結(jié)構(gòu)及關(guān)系也越來越復(fù)雜。從供應(yīng)鏈內(nèi)部關(guān)系來看，，核心企業(yè)和供應(yīng)商由所謂的“縱向一體化”轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)椤皺M向一體化”。這樣的改變一方面提高了供應(yīng)鏈的生產(chǎn)效率，做到合理分工，增強(qiáng)了供應(yīng)鏈各成員企業(yè)之間信息共享程度，進(jìn)而使供應(yīng)鏈總收益提高。但另一方面，供應(yīng)鏈的復(fù)雜性極易受外部環(huán)境的變化影響，例如，發(fā)生自然災(zāi)害、經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)、恐怖襲擊等不確定事件時(shí)，供應(yīng)鏈的脆弱性即突顯出來，這些不確定事件對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈的影響很大。根據(jù)供應(yīng)鏈外部不確定性傳遞性的特征，一旦供應(yīng)鏈中一個(gè)節(jié)點(diǎn)發(fā)生問題，可能使整個(gè)供應(yīng)鏈系統(tǒng)延遲或癱瘓。因此，需要根據(jù)外部環(huán)境發(fā)生變化的性質(zhì)改變供應(yīng)鏈的應(yīng)對(duì)策略，以提高供應(yīng)鏈抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力，保障供應(yīng)鏈正常運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。 本文主要研究特定天氣下供應(yīng)鏈契約協(xié)調(diào)的相關(guān)研究，這里的特定天氣主要是指降雪天氣。眾所周知，降雪天氣會(huì)對(duì)路面的能見度及摩擦系數(shù)造成影響，進(jìn)而影響供應(yīng)車輛的運(yùn)輸速度。當(dāng)供求雙方已經(jīng)約定好運(yùn)達(dá)時(shí)間時(shí)，運(yùn)輸車輛可能因?yàn)榻笛┒�產(chǎn)生延遲。在分散決策模式下，運(yùn)輸車輛因提前到達(dá)或延遲所產(chǎn)生的庫存成本和懲罰成本都是由供應(yīng)商一方承擔(dān)的。但在集中模式下，為了使供應(yīng)商和制造商雙方所組成的供應(yīng)鏈利益最大化，建立時(shí)間不確定契約激勵(lì)機(jī)制，即供應(yīng)商調(diào)整降雪天氣的出發(fā)時(shí)間提前出發(fā)，如果供應(yīng)商能夠準(zhǔn)時(shí)到達(dá)則制造商給予獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)。本文研究主要分為： （1）根據(jù)降雪程度的不同對(duì)雪天道路狀況進(jìn)行劃分，降雪天氣影響車輛速度的主要因素包括能見度和道路摩擦系數(shù)。所以，不同的降雪等級(jí)對(duì)應(yīng)著不同的運(yùn)達(dá)時(shí)間。制造商需要對(duì)不同降雪程度的配送時(shí)間進(jìn)行推理，估算出不同降雪程度下車輛的配送時(shí)間。 （2）建立降雪天氣下供應(yīng)鏈的一般模型，此時(shí)供應(yīng)商運(yùn)輸可能出現(xiàn)三種情況，提前到達(dá)、準(zhǔn)時(shí)到達(dá)和延遲到達(dá)。根據(jù)降雪量的不同，本文規(guī)定無論是提前到達(dá)還是延遲到達(dá)，供應(yīng)商都將有懲罰成本。所以，只有準(zhǔn)時(shí)到達(dá)，供應(yīng)商的收益才最大。 （3）根據(jù)供應(yīng)鏈協(xié)調(diào)的思想，對(duì)以上模型進(jìn)行改進(jìn)，通過激勵(lì)機(jī)制使供應(yīng)商提前出發(fā)，以保證其準(zhǔn)時(shí)到達(dá)。通過數(shù)值算例檢驗(yàn)證明，在降雪天氣下使用該模型能使供應(yīng)鏈的收益實(shí)現(xiàn)帕累托最優(yōu)，本文提出的方法科學(xué)、有效。
[Abstract]:The structure and relationship of supply chain are becoming more and more complex in the development and evolution of supply chain in the past decades. From the point of view of the internal relationship of supply chain, The core enterprises and suppliers have changed from "vertical integration" to "horizontal integration". On the one hand, such changes have improved the production efficiency of the supply chain, achieved a reasonable division of labor, and enhanced the degree of information sharing among the members of the supply chain. On the other hand, the complexity of the supply chain is vulnerable to changes in the external environment, such as natural disasters, economic crises, terrorist attacks and other uncertain events. The vulnerability of the supply chain is highlighted, and these uncertain events have a great impact on the supply chain. According to the transitive characteristics of the external uncertainty of the supply chain, once a node in the supply chain has a problem, The whole supply chain system may be delayed or paralyzed. Therefore, it is necessary to change the supply chain's coping strategy according to the changing nature of the external environment, in order to improve the supply chain's ability to resist risks and ensure the supply chain's normal operation. This paper mainly studies the supply chain contract coordination under specific weather, where the specific weather mainly refers to snowfall weather. As we all know, snowfall weather will affect the visibility and friction coefficient of road surface. When the supply and demand parties have agreed on the delivery time, the transport vehicle may be delayed by snowfall. In decentralized decision-making mode, The inventory cost and penalty cost of the transport vehicle due to early arrival or delay are borne by the supplier. However, in the centralized mode, in order to maximize the benefits of the supply chain formed by both the supplier and the manufacturer, The incentive mechanism of time uncertainty contract is established, that is, the supplier adjusts the departure time of snowfall weather, and if the supplier can arrive on time, the manufacturer will reward. 1) according to the degree of snowfall, the road condition of snowy days is divided. The main factors that affect the speed of vehicles in snowfall weather include visibility and friction coefficient of roads. Different snowfall levels correspond to different arrival times. Manufacturers need to infer the distribution time of different snowfall levels to estimate the delivery time of vehicles with different snowfall levels. 2) establishing a general model of the supply chain in snowfall weather, where supplier transportation may occur in three situations: early arrival, punctual arrival and delayed arrival. According to the different amount of snowfall, this article stipulates that either early arrival or late arrival. Suppliers will have a penalty cost. Therefore, only when they arrive on time will the supplier's profit be maximized. 3) according to the idea of supply chain coordination, the above model is improved, and the supplier can set out ahead of time through incentive mechanism to ensure its arrival on time. Using this model in snowfall can make the profit of supply chain achieve Pareto optimal. The method proposed in this paper is scientific and effective.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F274;P49

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 魏菲;;供應(yīng)鏈契約研究綜述[J];物流工程與管理;2013年03期

本文編號(hào)：1599569