發(fā)布時間：2018-09-11 08:47

【摘要】：全球一體化的浪潮推動著世界經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展，也帶來了世界經(jīng)濟發(fā)展模式的變革，企業(yè)的發(fā)展從傳統(tǒng)的各自為政邁向了集群化的供應(yīng)鏈運作，一方面，供應(yīng)鏈體系的運作為各企業(yè)帶來了更多的收益，另一方面，日趨復(fù)雜的競爭環(huán)境也為企業(yè)帶來了更多的風險，致使供應(yīng)鏈中斷事件屢有發(fā)生，造成重要的損失。市場對于一套完備供應(yīng)鏈中斷風險防范體系的需求日益迫切。 針對上述情況，，基于已有的研究成果，中斷風險因素防范和供應(yīng)鏈魯棒性問題成為本次研究的主要內(nèi)容，并提出了針對中斷風險因素的魯棒性管理體系，優(yōu)化了供應(yīng)鏈系統(tǒng)的運作方法，有效的扼制了中斷風險因素對供應(yīng)鏈系統(tǒng)的影響。該體系主要包括三個方面。 (1)現(xiàn)有的風險防范機制大多是討論風險發(fā)生后的管理和應(yīng)對，卻忽略了外部中斷風險對于供應(yīng)鏈有著先天的影響，雖然可以通過風險管理對中斷的影響進行控制，但是造成的損失卻是無法挽回的。對此，本文提出了針對外部中斷風險的魯棒性供應(yīng)鏈設(shè)計算法，通過兼顧效益與魯棒性，求取運營與風險成本的最小值，從而實現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)的最優(yōu)化。 (2)基于多模型預(yù)測控制的供應(yīng)鏈管理系統(tǒng)，結(jié)合了供應(yīng)鏈系統(tǒng)的特性，優(yōu)化了控制系統(tǒng)的算法，能夠使得系統(tǒng)在利潤最大化的前提下，確保系統(tǒng)魯棒性，系統(tǒng)得出的方案可以有效的為系統(tǒng)的信息處理、生產(chǎn)計劃和物流配送提供有力的借鑒。 (3)針對于嚴重的中斷風險，本文以多模型預(yù)測控制的管理方法為基礎(chǔ)，采用了模型切換的方法，充分發(fā)揮了系統(tǒng)信息化、集群化的特點，能夠在風險發(fā)生之初就進行響應(yīng)，以最快的速度恢復(fù)供應(yīng)鏈系統(tǒng)的運作。 以上三個方面分別考慮了中斷風險發(fā)生的過程、內(nèi)外部結(jié)構(gòu)與恢復(fù)措施的機理，充分協(xié)調(diào)供應(yīng)鏈上各企業(yè)，形成一套有機的整體，從而實現(xiàn)了對供應(yīng)鏈中斷的防范。 本文還通過Matlab對系統(tǒng)進行了仿真，進一步對本文所提出方法的有效性進行了驗證，仿真結(jié)果表明，該體系能夠有效的消除中斷風險因素對于系統(tǒng)的影響，表現(xiàn)出良好的魯棒性。
[Abstract]:The tide of global integration has promoted the development of the world economy and brought about the transformation of the development mode of the world economy. The development of enterprises has moved from the traditional management to the operation of the cluster supply chain, on the one hand, The operation of supply chain system brings more profits to the enterprises, on the other hand, the increasingly complex competition environment also brings more risks to the enterprises, which leads to the frequent occurrence of supply chain interruptions, resulting in important losses. The market for a complete supply chain interruption risk prevention system is increasingly urgent. In view of the above situation, based on the existing research results, the prevention of interruption risk factors and supply chain robustness become the main content of this study, and a robust management system for interruption risk factors is proposed. The operation method of supply chain system is optimized and the influence of interruption risk factor on supply chain system is effectively restrained. The system mainly includes three aspects. (1) most of the existing risk prevention mechanisms discuss the management and response after the occurrence of risk, but ignore the inherent impact of the external interruption risk on the supply chain. Although the impact of interruptions can be controlled through risk management, the damage caused is irreparable. In this paper, a robust supply chain design algorithm for external interruption risk is proposed. The minimum value of operation and risk cost can be obtained by taking both benefit and robustness into account. Thus the optimization of the system is realized. (2) the supply chain management system based on multi-model predictive control combines the characteristics of the supply chain system and optimizes the algorithm of the control system, which can make the system under the premise of maximizing the profit. To ensure the robustness of the system, the system can effectively provide information processing, production planning and logistics distribution to provide a strong reference. (3) for the serious interruption risk, Based on the management method of multi-model predictive control and the method of model switching, this paper gives full play to the characteristics of system information and cluster, and can respond at the beginning of risk. Resume the operation of the supply chain system as quickly as possible. The above three aspects consider the process of interruption risk, the mechanism of internal and external structure and recovery measures, and fully coordinate the enterprises in the supply chain to form an organic whole, thus realizing the prevention of supply chain disruption. This paper also simulates the system by Matlab, and further validates the effectiveness of the proposed method. The simulation results show that the system can effectively eliminate the impact of interruption risk factors on the system, and show good robustness.
【學位授予單位】：武漢紡織大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TP13;F274

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