基于情景規(guī)劃的世園會應(yīng)急要素研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-06-28 12:45
【摘要】：供熱、供燃?xì)�、通風(fēng)及空調(diào)工程學(xué)科內(nèi)容包括溫濕度、清潔度及空氣質(zhì)量的控制,為實現(xiàn)此環(huán)境控制的采暖通風(fēng)和空調(diào)系統(tǒng),冷熱源及能源轉(zhuǎn)換設(shè)備,以及燃?xì)�、蒸汽與冷熱水輸送系統(tǒng)。該領(lǐng)域存在著各種各樣的安全問題:如火災(zāi)、爆炸、有害物質(zhì)泄漏等。此類事故多以突然發(fā)生為特征,其所產(chǎn)生的破壞常常是難以料想的。因此研究相關(guān)突發(fā)事件的屬性,對突發(fā)事件類型、強(qiáng)度、時空特性等進(jìn)行表征,可以為突發(fā)事件的情景構(gòu)建奠定基礎(chǔ),為應(yīng)對供熱、供燃?xì)�、通風(fēng)與空調(diào)領(lǐng)域發(fā)生的安全問題提供參考。本文以2014年青島世界園藝博覽會(以下簡稱“世園會”)為例,運(yùn)用情景規(guī)劃技術(shù),通過對世園會主題館發(fā)生火災(zāi)突發(fā)事件的情景構(gòu)造,凝練突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急要素,構(gòu)建基于案例推理CBR應(yīng)急管理機(jī)制,為相關(guān)應(yīng)急預(yù)案的編制和應(yīng)急演練提供支撐,從而實現(xiàn)對世園會突發(fā)事件的充分預(yù)防和有效控制。從突發(fā)事件的可能性、突發(fā)事件強(qiáng)度、承災(zāi)載體的脆弱性和應(yīng)急資源四個維度對世園會建設(shè)和運(yùn)營風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了評估。在傳統(tǒng)風(fēng)險評估方法的基礎(chǔ)上增加了對承災(zāi)載體脆弱性和應(yīng)急資源的考量,改進(jìn)后的風(fēng)險評估方法可以更加客觀地反應(yīng)風(fēng)險狀況。以燃?xì)庑孤┘捌湟l(fā)火災(zāi)為例對其進(jìn)行表征,模擬了燃?xì)庑孤┡c火災(zāi)的本質(zhì)屬性和擴(kuò)散特性,實現(xiàn)突發(fā)事件不確定性向確定性的轉(zhuǎn)化。采用突發(fā)事件情景規(guī)劃的技術(shù)路線,構(gòu)建世園會主題館發(fā)生火災(zāi)的安全模型,明確了世園會區(qū)域應(yīng)急的客觀需求,對世園會應(yīng)急要素進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)歸納,概括出了應(yīng)急管理的方向、環(huán)節(jié)、條件、程序和效能要素,基于這些要素而制定的工程措施、技術(shù)措施和管理措施為編制世園會綜合防災(zāi)與應(yīng)急體系建設(shè)規(guī)劃提供了依據(jù),是區(qū)域重大工程建設(shè)和重大活動的應(yīng)急體系建設(shè)的有益嘗試。
[Abstract]:Heating, gas supply, ventilation and air conditioning engineering include temperature and humidity, cleanliness and air quality control. Heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems, cold and heat source and energy conversion equipment, as well as gas, steam and cold and hot water transportation systems to achieve this environmental control. There are a variety of safety problems in this field, such as fire, explosion, harmful material leakage and so on. Most of these accidents are characterized by sudden occurrence, and the damage caused by them is often unpredictable. Therefore, the study of the attributes of related emergencies and the characterization of emergency types, intensity, space-time characteristics and so on can lay a foundation for the construction of emergencies, and provide a reference for dealing with safety problems in the fields of heating, gas, ventilation and air conditioning. Taking the 2014 Qingdao World Horticultural Expo (hereinafter referred to as "Expo") as an example, this paper uses scenario planning technology to construct the scene of fire emergencies in the theme museum of the Expo, scenerates the emergency elements of emergencies, and constructs the emergency management mechanism based on case-based reasoning (CBR), so as to provide support for the compilation of emergency plans and emergency drills, so as to realize the full prevention and effective control of emergencies. The construction and operation risks of the Expo are evaluated from four dimensions: the possibility of emergencies, the intensity of emergencies, the vulnerability of disaster carriers and emergency resources. On the basis of the traditional risk assessment method, the vulnerability of the disaster carrier and emergency resources are considered, and the improved risk assessment method can reflect the risk situation more objectively. Taking gas leakage and fire as an example, the essential properties and diffusion characteristics of gas leakage and fire are simulated, and the transformation from uncertainty to certainty is realized. Using the technical route of emergency scenario planning, this paper constructs the safety model of fire in the theme museum of the Expo, clarifies the objective needs of the regional emergency of the Expo, systematically sums up the emergency elements of the Expo, summarizes the direction, links, conditions, procedures and efficiency elements of the emergency management, and the engineering measures based on these elements. The technical measures and management measures provide the basis for the preparation of the comprehensive disaster prevention and emergency system construction plan of the World Park, and are a useful attempt for the construction of regional major projects and major activities.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TU984;D63
本文編號：2507313
[Abstract]:Heating, gas supply, ventilation and air conditioning engineering include temperature and humidity, cleanliness and air quality control. Heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems, cold and heat source and energy conversion equipment, as well as gas, steam and cold and hot water transportation systems to achieve this environmental control. There are a variety of safety problems in this field, such as fire, explosion, harmful material leakage and so on. Most of these accidents are characterized by sudden occurrence, and the damage caused by them is often unpredictable. Therefore, the study of the attributes of related emergencies and the characterization of emergency types, intensity, space-time characteristics and so on can lay a foundation for the construction of emergencies, and provide a reference for dealing with safety problems in the fields of heating, gas, ventilation and air conditioning. Taking the 2014 Qingdao World Horticultural Expo (hereinafter referred to as "Expo") as an example, this paper uses scenario planning technology to construct the scene of fire emergencies in the theme museum of the Expo, scenerates the emergency elements of emergencies, and constructs the emergency management mechanism based on case-based reasoning (CBR), so as to provide support for the compilation of emergency plans and emergency drills, so as to realize the full prevention and effective control of emergencies. The construction and operation risks of the Expo are evaluated from four dimensions: the possibility of emergencies, the intensity of emergencies, the vulnerability of disaster carriers and emergency resources. On the basis of the traditional risk assessment method, the vulnerability of the disaster carrier and emergency resources are considered, and the improved risk assessment method can reflect the risk situation more objectively. Taking gas leakage and fire as an example, the essential properties and diffusion characteristics of gas leakage and fire are simulated, and the transformation from uncertainty to certainty is realized. Using the technical route of emergency scenario planning, this paper constructs the safety model of fire in the theme museum of the Expo, clarifies the objective needs of the regional emergency of the Expo, systematically sums up the emergency elements of the Expo, summarizes the direction, links, conditions, procedures and efficiency elements of the emergency management, and the engineering measures based on these elements. The technical measures and management measures provide the basis for the preparation of the comprehensive disaster prevention and emergency system construction plan of the World Park, and are a useful attempt for the construction of regional major projects and major activities.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TU984;D63
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