發(fā)布時間：2018-09-01 13:08

【摘要】：選取楊梅采摘期易對產(chǎn)量造成影響的降水因子作為保險設(shè)計的氣象致害指標(biāo),定義連續(xù)降水影響日數(shù)作為楊梅降水指數(shù);經(jīng)楊梅產(chǎn)量分離和去趨勢化處理,分析1995—2015年產(chǎn)量損失率和降水指數(shù)的關(guān)系,建立楊梅產(chǎn)量災(zāi)損模型;利用長序列歷史降水資料,選用韋伯分布模型計算不同等級降水指數(shù)的風(fēng)險概率,設(shè)計不同賠付觸發(fā)條件下的保險純費率和楊梅降水氣象指數(shù)保險產(chǎn)品,為楊梅農(nóng)業(yè)保險可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供技術(shù)支撐。該指數(shù)保險產(chǎn)品具有可操作性,可為寧波地區(qū)楊梅降水保險業(yè)務(wù)提供參考,以便在降水災(zāi)害發(fā)生后客觀、便捷地開展保險理賠工作。
[Abstract]:The precipitation factors, which are easy to affect the yield of Myrica rubra in picking period, are selected as the meteorological damage index of the insurance design, and the continuous precipitation influence days are defined as the precipitation index of Myrica rubra, and the yield of Myrica rubra is separated and detrended. This paper analyzes the relationship between yield loss rate and precipitation index in 1995-2015, establishes the model of yield disaster loss of Myrica rubra, calculates the risk probability of different grade precipitation index by using the long series historical precipitation data and the Weber distribution model. In order to provide technical support for the sustainable development of agricultural insurance of Myrica rubra, the insurance products of pure rate and precipitation meteorological index under different trigger conditions are designed. The index insurance product is operable and can provide reference for the precipitation insurance business of Yangmei in Ningbo area, so as to carry out the insurance and claim settlement work objectively and conveniently after the occurrence of precipitation disaster.
【作者單位】： 南京信息工程大學(xué)應(yīng)用氣象學(xué)院;寧波市氣象局;中國太平洋財產(chǎn)保險公司寧波分公司;
【基金】：浙江省保險學(xué)會一般項目(2016086)
【分類號】：F842.66;S667.6
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本文編號：2217293