a国产,中文字幕久久波多野结衣AV,欧美粗大猛烈老熟妇,女人av天堂

我國房價波動的空間效應(yīng)及對金融穩(wěn)定的影響

發(fā)布時間:2018-04-24 07:01

  本文選題:房價波動 + 空間效應(yīng); 參考:《暨南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文


【摘要】:為探討我國房地產(chǎn)市場波動的規(guī)律性,本文在國內(nèi)首次利用截面相關(guān)的CCE估計法,分析房價與人均可支配收入、貸款余額間是否存在長期協(xié)整關(guān)系;若存在,則對殘差序列建立空間滯后模型,并通過最大似然估計法得出空間相關(guān)系數(shù),以此判斷房價波動空間效應(yīng)的存在及其大小。結(jié)果表明:我國房價波動存在顯著的空間溢出效應(yīng),不同城市間的房價波動具有較強的趨同性,但同時房價的波動又存在一定的差異性。經(jīng)濟越發(fā)達(dá)的城市,不僅房價高、增長快,而且房價運行的獨立性越強;而經(jīng)濟落后的城市,其房價容易受到外部地區(qū)房價的影響。 同時,,文中運用GARCH模型研究房價等基本面因素對銀行不良貸款率的影響,以此間接分析房價波動與金融穩(wěn)定間的關(guān)系。估計結(jié)果表明:當(dāng)模型中包含國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值時,國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的估計系數(shù)最大,其次為廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量,最后是房地產(chǎn)價格;而當(dāng)模型中不包含國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值時,房地產(chǎn)價格指數(shù)與廣義貨幣供給量系數(shù)均顯著增大,且系數(shù)符號與實際經(jīng)濟情況相符。此外,將房價引入方差方程中,估計系數(shù)顯著不為零,說明房價的波動確實會顯著導(dǎo)致不良貸款率的變動,影響銀行穩(wěn)定,進而是金融穩(wěn)定。
[Abstract]:In order to study the regularity of the fluctuation of the real estate market in China, this paper, for the first time, uses cross-sectional CCE estimation method to analyze whether there is a long-term cointegration relationship between house price and per capita disposable income and loan balance. Then the spatial lag model is established for the residual sequence, and the spatial correlation coefficient is obtained by the maximum likelihood estimation method, so as to judge the existence and magnitude of the spatial effect of house price fluctuation. The results show that there is a significant spatial spillover effect in the fluctuation of house price in China. The fluctuation of house price in different cities has strong convergence, but there are some differences in the fluctuation of house price at the same time. The more developed city, not only high house price, fast growth, but also the more independent housing price, while the backward city, its house price is easy to be affected by the outside region housing price. At the same time, GARCH model is used to study the influence of fundamental factors such as house price on the non-performing loan rate of banks, so as to indirectly analyze the relationship between the fluctuation of house price and financial stability. The results show that when the GDP is included in the model, the estimated coefficient of GDP is the largest, followed by the broad money supply and the real estate price, and when the GDP is not included in the model, Both the real estate price index and the generalized money supply coefficient increase significantly, and the symbol of the coefficient is consistent with the actual economic situation. In addition, when the house price is introduced into the variance equation, the estimated coefficient is significantly not zero, which indicates that the fluctuation of the house price will cause the change of the non-performing loan ratio, which will affect the stability of the bank and then the financial stability.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:暨南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號】:F832.5;F299.23

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 王松濤;楊贊;劉洪玉;;我國區(qū)域市場城市房價互動關(guān)系的實證研究[J];財經(jīng)問題研究;2008年06期

2 余華義;;經(jīng)濟基本面還是房地產(chǎn)政策在影響中國的房價[J];財貿(mào)經(jīng)濟;2010年03期

3 王鋒;李宇嘉;;我國經(jīng)濟增長背景下的房地產(chǎn)市場與金融穩(wěn)定[J];財貿(mào)研究;2008年05期

4 位志宇;楊忠直;;長三角房價變化的生態(tài)共生性研究——基于上海、杭州和南京的實證[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟管理;2007年02期

5 周京奎;房地產(chǎn)價格波動與投機行為——對中國14城市的實證研究[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟科學(xué);2005年04期

6 任榮榮;鄭思齊;龍奮杰;;預(yù)期對房價的作用機制:對35個大中城市的實證研究[J];經(jīng)濟問題探索;2008年01期

7 譚政勛;;我國住宅業(yè)泡沫及其影響居民消費的理論與實證研究[J];經(jīng)濟學(xué)家;2010年03期

8 張曉晶;孫濤;;中國房地產(chǎn)周期與金融穩(wěn)定[J];經(jīng)濟研究;2006年01期

9 梁云芳;高鐵梅;;中國房地產(chǎn)價格波動區(qū)域差異的實證分析[J];經(jīng)濟研究;2007年08期

10 譚政勛;王聰;;中國信貸擴張、房價波動的金融穩(wěn)定效應(yīng)研究——動態(tài)隨機一般均衡模型視角[J];金融研究;2011年08期



本文編號:1795624

資料下載
論文發(fā)表

本文鏈接:http://www.wukwdryxk.cn/jingjilunwen/fangdichanjingjilunwen/1795624.html


Copyright(c)文論論文網(wǎng)All Rights Reserved | 網(wǎng)站地圖 |

版權(quán)申明:資料由用戶8e533***提供,本站僅收錄摘要或目錄,作者需要刪除請E-mail郵箱bigeng88@qq.com
日本中文一区二区三区亚洲| 麻豆国产原创视频在线播放 | 一二三四区视频| 亚洲乱码日产精品BD在线| 国内精品九九久久久精品| 久久久久亚洲精品无码蜜桃| 亚洲AV丰满熟妇在线播放| 亚洲av狠狠爱一区二区三区| 日韩人妻无码免费视频一区二区三区| 老熟女一区二区免费| 成在人线无码aⅴ免费视频| 浏阳市| 91精品国产日韩91久久久久久| 九九精品在线| 久久精品国产亚洲av香蕉| 欧美大人和孩做爰aⅴ| 黑人xxx| 四虎影视库| 免费高清自慰一区二区三区| 出差被绝伦上司侵犯中文字幕| 精品无码久久久久久尤物| 中无码人妻丰满熟妇啪啪| 综合色天天鬼久久鬼色| 成人国产精品日本在线观看| 中文字幕乱码熟妇五十中出| 我和公发生了性关系视频| 中文字幕av无码专区第一页| 激情综合色五月丁香六月欧美| 国产无遮挡无码视频免费软件| 777亚洲精品乱码久久久久久| 亚洲日韩中文无码久久| 亚洲成av人片天堂网| 国产成人午夜福利在线观看| 14又嫩又紧水又多| 强奸乱伦影音先锋| 在线精品国精品国产尤物| 国产精品久久久久久久影院| 亚洲va在线∨a天堂va欧美va| 亚洲AV电影天堂男人的天堂| 久久综合色一综合色88| 99re这里只有国产中文精品国产精品 |