發(fā)布時間：2018-03-27 21:36

  本文選題：物價波動　切入點：CPI　出處：《曲阜師范大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,我國多次出現一些生活必需品價格上升幅度失控的現象,“蒜你狠”、“姜你軍”等反映物價飛速上漲的網絡流行用語應運而生,物價上漲已經嚴重影響到人們的生產生活,可見,物價穩(wěn)定直接關系著人們的生活質量水平,也影響著我國經濟的發(fā)展.首先,本文選取2001年至2013年相關數據,分析我國物價波動情況.首先,通過對比與分析,選取居民消費價格指數(CPI)作為衡量物價波動的指標,在本文第三章中,就CPI總指數及八大構成指標進行描述性統(tǒng)計分析.利用系統(tǒng)聚類和K 均值聚類分析相結合,把我國32個省、市、自治區(qū)劃分為五類.然后,選取2008年1月到2014年12月的10個影響指標,研究10個指標對CPI的影響情況.第一步:建立多元統(tǒng)計分析,靜態(tài)分析各個指標對物價影響的情況,得到回歸方程;第二步:建立向量自回歸模型,動態(tài)分析各個指標對物價波動的影響,得到如下結論:企業(yè)商品價格指數因素和工業(yè)品出廠價格指數對于CPI貢獻率最大,甚至在滯后10期時仍在各個指標中占據最大值,分別達到了最大值27.16920和49.35786,從而這兩個因素對物價波動的影響是特別顯著的.食品類價格指數影響因素對CPI影響程度相對較大,其他各類影響因素影響程度相對較小.社會消費品零售總額指數根據其變化曲線來看,較為平穩(wěn),對CPI影響較為穩(wěn)定.進出口總額指數和居住類價格指數都是先降后升,最后趨于穩(wěn)定.外匯儲備指數對其影響略微下降.食品類價格指數和貨幣供給量指數對CPI影響都是基本穩(wěn)定的.最后,針對分析結果提出一系列穩(wěn)定物價的合理化建議.第一,加快收入分配制度的改革,建立健全的社會保障體系.第二,加強對食品價格和房價的監(jiān)控.第三,為了防止物價上漲過于快速,必須增加市場商品的供應,有效地抑制不合理的需求.第四,控制好投資和進出口規(guī)模.
[Abstract]:In recent years, there have been a number of times in China where the price of essential necessities has gone out of control. "garlic you are ruthless", "Jiang you Jun" and other popular Internet expressions reflecting the rapid rise in prices have emerged as the times require, and price increases have seriously affected people's production and life. It can be seen that price stability is directly related to people's quality of life and also to the development of our economy. First of all, this paper selects relevant data from 2001 to 2013 to analyze the price fluctuation in China. First, through comparison and analysis, The consumer price index (CPI) is selected as the index to measure the price fluctuation. In the third chapter, the author makes a descriptive statistical analysis of the total index of CPI and the eight major components of the index, and combines the systematic clustering with the K-means clustering analysis. 32 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China are divided into five categories. Then, 10 impact indicators from January 2008 to December 2014 are selected to study the impact of 10 indicators on CPI. The first step is to establish a multivariate statistical analysis. The second step is to establish a vector autoregressive model to dynamically analyze the influence of each index on price fluctuation. The conclusions are as follows: the factors of enterprise commodity price index and industrial product ex-factory price index contribute the most to CPI, even when they lag behind 10 periods, they still occupy the maximum value in each index. The maximum value is 27.16920 and 49.35786 respectively, so the influence of these two factors on price fluctuation is particularly significant. The influence of food price index on CPI is relatively large. According to its changing curve, the total retail sales index of social consumer goods is relatively stable, and the influence on CPI is relatively stable. Both the total import and export index and the housing price index both fall first and then rise. Finally, it tends to be stable. The foreign exchange reserve index has a slight decrease in its impact. The food price index and the money supply index are both basically stable to CPI. Finally, a series of rational suggestions for price stability are put forward in the light of the results of the analysis. First, Speed up the reform of the income distribution system and establish a sound social security system. Second, strengthen the monitoring of food prices and house prices. Third, in order to prevent prices from rising too fast, we must increase the supply of commodities on the market. Effectively restrain unreasonable demand. Fourth, control the scale of investment and import and export.
【學位授予單位】：曲阜師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F726

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前2條

1 王志文;;詮釋CPI與通貨膨脹[J];消費導刊;2010年03期

2 張雪慧;;對我國CPI構成的探討[J];價值工程;2010年02期

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本文編號：1673299