發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-02-25 05:07

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 證券分析師 盈余預(yù)測誤差 經(jīng)營業(yè)績 盈余管理　出處：《天津商業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來,伴隨我國證券市場的發(fā)展,我國證券分析師也得到了壯大,作為證券分析師發(fā)揮作用的手段,他們所做的盈余預(yù)測報(bào)告也越來越多,同時(shí)由于信息需求增加和受制于能力渠道等因素等造成的信息不對(duì)稱,投資者對(duì)分析師的盈余預(yù)測報(bào)告有了越來越多的關(guān)注,可以說證券分析師的盈余預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)將在很大程度上會(huì)影響投資者的價(jià)值判斷,為了更好的促進(jìn)我國證券分析師盈余預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確度,從而更好的為市場服務(wù),本文運(yùn)用文獻(xiàn)研究法和實(shí)證研究的方法,對(duì)我國證券分析師盈余預(yù)測的誤差進(jìn)行了分析,經(jīng)過理論分析和論證后,就有關(guān)結(jié)論有針對(duì)性地提出對(duì)減小我國證券分析師預(yù)測誤差的對(duì)策建議,從而,幫助廣大投資者更加理性地利用分析師的盈余預(yù)測報(bào)告,為我國證券市場有序健康發(fā)展提供方向。本文主要分為五部分進(jìn)行研究。首先第一部分在談?wù)撚嘘P(guān)背景后提出了本文研究的問題和方向,在越來越受國家和投資者重視的情況下,我們需要對(duì)分析師盈余預(yù)測誤差的情況進(jìn)行更好的解讀和分析,在通過對(duì)報(bào)告盈余的構(gòu)成進(jìn)行分析后,我們提出了本文的研究方向,探討經(jīng)營業(yè)績和盈余管理在不同的水平程度下,對(duì)分析師盈余預(yù)測誤差的影響,更進(jìn)一步試圖研究兩者哪個(gè)對(duì)誤差影響更大及有關(guān)盈余預(yù)測誤差修正的情況。第二部分本文主要論述了盈余預(yù)測的三大理論基礎(chǔ),同時(shí)對(duì)已有的國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了整理和詳細(xì)的闡述以及對(duì)本文的啟示。第三部分,在一定的理論分析基礎(chǔ)和推導(dǎo)后,提出了本文的四個(gè)假設(shè),并選取了有關(guān)變量,進(jìn)行了模型設(shè)計(jì)和數(shù)據(jù)收集選取等工作。第四部分是描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)和實(shí)證分析,詳細(xì)解讀了本文實(shí)證結(jié)果和對(duì)此的分析,以及是否符合預(yù)期假設(shè)等。第五部分,就實(shí)證分析結(jié)果進(jìn)行了總結(jié),并以此為基礎(chǔ)提出了一些有助于我國證券分析師盈余預(yù)測誤差較小的三個(gè)建議,同時(shí)補(bǔ)充了本文可能的不足和以后的研究方向。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of China's securities market, China's securities analysts have also gained strength. As a means for securities analysts to play a role, they have also made more and more earnings forecast reports. At the same time, due to the information asymmetry caused by the increasing demand for information and being constrained by capacity channels, investors are paying more and more attention to the earnings forecast report of analysts. It can be said that the earnings forecast data of securities analysts will to a large extent affect the value judgment of investors. In order to better promote the accuracy of earnings forecast of securities analysts in China and serve the market better, This paper analyzes the error of earnings forecast of securities analysts in China by using the method of literature research and empirical research, after theoretical analysis and demonstration, On the basis of the relevant conclusions, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to reduce the forecast error of China's securities analysts, so as to help the majority of investors to make more rational use of the earnings forecast report of the analysts. This paper is divided into five parts to study. Firstly, after discussing the relevant background, the paper puts forward the problems and directions of this paper. Under the condition that the country and investors pay more and more attention to the situation, we need to better interpret and analyze the error of analyst earnings forecast. After analyzing the composition of the report surplus, we put forward the research direction of this paper. This paper discusses the influence of operating performance and earnings management on analysts' earnings forecast errors in different levels. The second part of this paper mainly discusses the three theoretical bases of earnings forecasting. At the same time, the existing literature at home and abroad are summarized and elaborated in detail, as well as the enlightenment to this paper. The third part, after a certain theoretical analysis and derivation, puts forward the four hypotheses of this paper, and selects the relevant variables. The 4th part is descriptive statistics and empirical analysis, explains the empirical results and analysis of this paper in detail, as well as whether the expected assumptions and so on. 5th, and so on. This paper summarizes the results of empirical analysis and puts forward three suggestions on the basis of which some suggestions are put forward which are helpful to reduce the error of earnings forecast of securities analysts in China. At the same time, it complements the possible shortcomings of this paper and the future research direction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津商業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F832.51

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