發(fā)布時間：2018-02-28 03:42

  本文關鍵詞： 私人非金融部門 杠桿率 償債負擔 宏觀經(jīng)濟波動　出處：《金融經(jīng)濟學研究》2017年04期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：將私人非金融部門的杠桿率和償債負擔納入同一分析框架,從理論層面分析兩者與信貸、私人支出等宏觀經(jīng)濟變量之間的短期動態(tài)和長期均衡關系;在此基礎上,通過構建向量誤差修正模型對私人非金融部門杠桿率和償債負擔的宏觀經(jīng)濟效應進行實證分析。研究結果表明,杠桿率和償債負擔決定了宏觀經(jīng)濟變量之間的兩種長期關聯(lián);杠桿率和償債負擔對信貸增長具有顯著的負向作用,而對私人支出并無顯著的直接影響;杠桿率和償債負擔在穩(wěn)態(tài)調整過程中對其他經(jīng)濟變量產(chǎn)生的影響促使經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)趨于穩(wěn)定,但兩者對宏觀經(jīng)濟的作用機制和影響后果存在明顯差異;平均貸款利率和資產(chǎn)價格增長的內生限制在經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定中發(fā)揮了一定的積極作用。
[Abstract]:To include leverage and debt-servicing burdens in the private non-financial sector in the same analytical framework, and to analyse, at the theoretical level, the short-term dynamic and long-term equilibrium between them and macroeconomic variables such as credit, private expenditure, etc; on this basis, By constructing vector error correction model, the macroeconomic effects of leverage ratio and debt service burden in private non-financial sector are empirically analyzed. The results show that leverage ratio and debt service burden determine two long-term relationships between macroeconomic variables. Leverage ratio and debt service burden have a significant negative effect on credit growth, but have no significant direct impact on private expenditure; The influence of leverage ratio and debt service burden on other economic variables in the process of steady-state adjustment makes the economic system tend to be stable, but there are obvious differences between them on the mechanism and effect of macro-economy. The endogenous restriction of average loan interest rate and asset price growth has played a positive role in the stability of economic system.
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本文編號：1545614