發(fā)布時間：2018-03-30 06:23

  本文選題：DEA方法　切入點：Tobit模型　出處：《南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國城市土地儲備制度的建立,我國逐步形成了由國家統(tǒng)一收購、統(tǒng)一儲備、統(tǒng)一供應的土地市場,土地儲備供應成為了我國主要的城市土地供應模式,大大促進我國土地資源的合理配置。然而目前由于我國城市土地儲備制度還處于邊運作、邊探索的階段,城市土地供應機制尚不完善,仍缺乏適當?shù)睦碚摽蚣軐ν恋貎�備決策部門進行約束和指導,土地儲備工作逐漸偏離其初衰,由此暴露諸多問題,影響城市房地產(chǎn)業(yè)健康發(fā)展。因此,探討如何減少政府土地儲備供應決策誤差,提高土地儲備供應制度的實施效果,避免“政府失靈”,對于我國城市的發(fā)展顯得十分重要。本文運用DEA模型分析了2003年和2009年全國34個大中城市的土地儲備供應決策效率及其在2003--2009年之間效率變化值,并運用Tobit模型對2009年土地儲備供應決策效率的影響因素進行了探討,在此基礎上,提出調(diào)控對策,以進一步提高土地儲備供應決策水平。本文第一部分介紹了本文的研究背景,明確了研究目的及意義,對國家內(nèi)外關(guān)于土地儲備、土地儲備功能定位、土地儲備決策研究、DEA及Tobit模型應用研究進行了文獻回顧,提出本文的研究思路和技術(shù)路線,最后概括了本研究可能存在的創(chuàng)新和不足之處。本文第二部分則對本研究涉及的土地儲備供應、目標、決策與決策效率等概念進行了明確界定,并闡述了相關(guān)理論基礎。本文第三部分在分析制度與效率的關(guān)系基礎上,概述了效率導向下的土地儲備供應制度的形成與發(fā)展,以及探討了土地儲備供應制度現(xiàn)狀所決定的效率狀態(tài)。在充分認識土地儲備供應制度與決策效率內(nèi)在關(guān)系的基礎上,提出進行效率研究的必要性。本文第四部分首先在通過比較效率評價常用方法的基礎上,確定DEA方法的適用性。然后運用DEA模型對34個大中城市2003年和2009年土地儲備供應決策效率進行評價,再借助Malmquist指數(shù)對34個大中城市在2003-2009年期間土地儲備供應決策效率變化趨勢進行分析。研究表明,土地儲備供應決策綜合效率水平受純技術(shù)效率和規(guī)模效率共同影響；2003-2009年土地儲備供應決策效率有所改善,主要得益于規(guī)模效率的提升；各地區(qū)土地投入存在不同程度的冗余。本文第五部分運用Tobit模型對影響土地儲備供應決策效率的因素進行了分析探討,具有顯著性作用的影響因素包括財政分權(quán)體制、城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展、技術(shù)進步、土地市場投機行為、房地產(chǎn)竣工面積、公民政治參與意識。研究結(jié)果表明,財政分權(quán)體制、技術(shù)進步、房地產(chǎn)竣工面積、公民政治參與意識顯著正面影響土地儲備供應決策效率；城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展、土地市場投機行為與土地儲備供應決策效率呈負相關(guān)。本文第六部分根據(jù)效率評價結(jié)果闡述了土地儲備供應制度實施的效果,并結(jié)合影響因素分析結(jié)果,提出了調(diào)控對策,以提高土地儲備供應決策水平。本文第七部分包括主要結(jié)論、政策改革建議、研究展望。
[Abstract]:With the establishment of China's city land reserve system, China has gradually formed a unified acquisition by the State Reserve, unified supply of land market, land reserve and supply become China's main mode of city land supply, greatly promote the rational allocation of land resources in China. However, because of China's land reserve system is still in the city the side edge operation, exploration stage, city land supply mechanism is not perfect, lack of appropriate theoretical framework for the guidance and restraint of the land reserve decision-making department, the land reserve work gradually deviated from the initial decline, many problems exposed by this, affect the healthy development of city real estate industry. Therefore, how to reduce the supply of government land reserve the decision-making error, improve the implementation effect of land reserve and supply system, to avoid the "government failure", is very important for the development of our city is. This paper uses DEA model Analysis of the land reserve and supply in 2003 and 2009 34 large and medium-sized city's decision-making efficiency and efficiency change in value between 2003--2009 years, and the use of the influence factors of the Tobit model of the 2009 land reserve and supply decision efficiency were discussed, on this basis, put forward the control countermeasure, to further improve the land reserve and supply decision-making level. In the first part of this paper introduces the research background, the research purpose and significance, on the inside and outside the country on land reserve, land reserve function, research on decision making of land reserve, DEA model and Tobit application research in the literature review, this paper puts forward the research ideas and technical route, and finally summarized this study possible innovation and deficiencies the second part of this paper. This study involves the land reserve and supply, goal, concept of decision-making and decision efficiency were clearly defined, and elaborate The relevant theoretical basis. The third part of the paper analyzes the relations of system and efficiency on the formation and development of the land reserve and supply system efficiency under the guidance of the efficiency of state and discusses the status quo of land reserve and supply system was determined. Based on the full understanding of the inherent relationship between land reserve and supply system and decision-making efficiency, put forward the necessity of efficiency research. In the fourth part, based on the comparison of common methods for efficiency evaluation, determine the applicability of DEA method. Then using the DEA model to evaluate the efficiency of 34 large and medium-sized city in 2003 and 2009 land reserve and supply decision, then using Malmquist index analysis of 34 large and medium-sized city land reserve and supply decision the efficiency change trend in a period of 2003-2009 years. The study shows that the comprehensive efficiency of land reserve and supply decision-making level of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency 鐜囧叡鍚屽獎鍝嶏紱2003-2009騫村湡鍦板偍澶囦緵搴斿喅絳栨晥鐜囨湁鎵，

本文編號：1684711