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  本文選題：耕地生態(tài)安全　切入點(diǎn)：PSR模型　出處：《福建農(nóng)林大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：生態(tài)安全是國家安全的重要部分,耕地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)作為生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的重要組成部分,耕地生態(tài)安全狀況對地區(qū)生態(tài)安全的影響至關(guān)重要,對耕地生態(tài)安全狀況進(jìn)行評價與預(yù)測,不僅能掌握當(dāng)前耕地生態(tài)安全狀況,了解影響耕地生態(tài)安全的障礙因素,更能針對其變化情況做出應(yīng)對措施,同時,福建省作為21世紀(jì)海上絲綢之路核心區(qū),經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展面臨前所未有的新機(jī)遇,鑒于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與耕地生態(tài)安全建設(shè)同等重要,分析兩系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r對指導(dǎo)區(qū)域的可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要意義。本文通過構(gòu)建基于PSR模型的指標(biāo)體系,對福建省2004-2015年的耕地生態(tài)安全現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行評價與分析,通過障礙度模型分析主要障礙因子,同時,運(yùn)用協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展模型得出福建省2004-2015年經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)與耕地生態(tài)安全的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展度,并分析了近年來兩系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,最后,運(yùn)用無偏GM(1,1)模型預(yù)測2016-2025年耕地生態(tài)安全的各指標(biāo)值,進(jìn)而得到未來十年的耕地生態(tài)安全值,對其進(jìn)行分析可知福建省未來十年的耕地生態(tài)安全狀況。本研究的結(jié)論主要有:(1)耕地生態(tài)安全現(xiàn)狀評價及障礙因子分析。2004-2015年,福建省耕地生態(tài)安全狀況逐年改善,安全狀態(tài)從一般安全級提升為比較安全級,此期間對耕地生態(tài)安全產(chǎn)生較大影響的阻礙層從初期的響應(yīng)層轉(zhuǎn)為后期的壓力層,具體的障礙因素不同時期各不相同,2004-2009年主要有耕地墾殖率、單位面積農(nóng)膜負(fù)荷、單位耕地面積化肥負(fù)荷等;2010-2015年主要有單位耕地面積化肥負(fù)荷、環(huán)境污染治理投資占GDP比重、農(nóng)村人均可支配收入等。(2)耕地生態(tài)安全與經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r分析。2004-2015年,福建省耕地生態(tài)年全與經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)度和協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展度都呈增長趨勢,兩系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)性不斷增強(qiáng),協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展情況從初期的失調(diào)發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)滯后型逐漸轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)楦呒墔f(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展同步型。(3)耕地生態(tài)安全變化情況預(yù)測及分析。根據(jù)預(yù)測結(jié)果得出,2016-2025年,福建省耕地生態(tài)安全值呈下降趨勢,安全等級隨之下降,從2016-2020年的較安全狀態(tài)降低到2021-2025年的一般安全狀態(tài),且有繼續(xù)下降的趨勢,經(jīng)分析得出,2016-2020年主要的障礙層為響應(yīng)層,障礙因素主要有農(nóng)村人均可支配收入、森林覆蓋率、單位耕地面積農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械總動力等,2021-2025年最大的障礙層為壓力層,主要障礙因素包括耕地墾殖率、單位耕地面積農(nóng)膜負(fù)荷、單位耕地面積化肥負(fù)荷等。
[Abstract]:Ecological security is an important part of national security. Cultivated land ecosystem is an important part of ecosystem. Not only can we grasp the current situation of ecological security of cultivated land, understand the obstacles affecting the ecological security of cultivated land, but also respond to its changing situation. At the same time, Fujian Province is the core area of the 21st century maritime Silk Road. Economic development is facing unprecedented new opportunities. Given that economic development is as important as the ecological security of cultivated land, It is of great significance to analyze the coordinated development of the two systems for guiding the sustainable development of the region. Through constructing the index system based on PSR model, this paper evaluates and analyzes the present situation of ecological security of cultivated land in Fujian Province from 2004 to 2015. This paper analyzes the main obstacle factors through the barrier degree model, at the same time, using the coordinated development model, obtains the coordinated development degree of Fujian Province's economic system and cultivated land ecological security from 2004 to 2015, and analyzes the coordinated development situation of the two systems in recent years. In this paper, the unbiased GM1 / 1) model is used to predict the ecological security of cultivated land in 2016-2025, and then the ecological security of cultivated land in the next ten years is obtained. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) the present situation of cultivated land ecological security and the analysis of obstacle factors. From 2004 to 2015, the situation of cultivated land ecological security in Fujian Province has been improved year by year. The safety state was upgraded from the general safety level to the relatively safe level. During this period, the barrier layer, which had a great impact on the ecological security of cultivated land, changed from the initial response layer to the later pressure layer. The specific obstacle factors are mainly cultivated land reclamation rate, agricultural film load per unit area, chemical fertilizer load per cultivated land area and chemical fertilizer load per unit cultivated land area during 2004-2009. The proportion of environmental pollution control investment in GDP is the highest in 2010-2015. Analysis on the coordinated Development of Ecological Security of cultivated Land and economy in Fujian Province from 2004 to 2015, the degree of coordination and coordinated development between the whole cultivated land ecological year and the economy in Fujian Province showed an increasing trend, and the coordination between the two systems was continuously strengthened. The situation of coordinated development has gradually changed from the initial unbalanced development economy lagging type to the advanced coordinated development synchronizing type. The change of cultivated land ecological security has been predicted and analyzed. According to the forecast results, the cultivated land ecological security value in Fujian Province has a downward trend in 2016-2025. The security level then decreased, from the safer state of 2016-2020 to the general safe state of 2021-2025, and the trend continued to decline. After analysis, it was concluded that the main barrier layer in 2016-2020 was the response layer, and the main obstacle factors were the per capita disposable income in rural areas. The biggest obstacle layer of forest coverage, total power of agricultural machinery per unit cultivated land in 2021-2025 is pressure layer, the main obstacle factors include cultivated land reclamation rate, agricultural film load per unit cultivated land area, fertilizer load per unit cultivated land area, etc.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：福建農(nóng)林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X826;F323.211

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