發(fā)布時間：2018-09-11 20:30

【摘要】：隨著風(fēng)電資源在全世界范圍內(nèi)的大規(guī)模利用,各國家地區(qū)的電力系統(tǒng)風(fēng)電滲透率逐步提高,具有隨機(jī)性波動性特點(diǎn)的風(fēng)電大規(guī)模接入給電力系統(tǒng)帶來的影響日益明顯,同時由于各類限制因素導(dǎo)致的棄風(fēng)問題也十分突出。電力系統(tǒng)隨機(jī)生產(chǎn)模擬這一分析工具可以對系統(tǒng)中長期運(yùn)行的經(jīng)濟(jì)性可靠性進(jìn)行模擬評估,有助于分析風(fēng)電接入對電力系統(tǒng)的影響以及系統(tǒng)消納風(fēng)電的情況。但目前針對含風(fēng)電電力系統(tǒng)的隨機(jī)生產(chǎn)模擬方法難以兼顧風(fēng)電相關(guān)性與運(yùn)行的時序性,導(dǎo)致模擬結(jié)果難以準(zhǔn)確反映系統(tǒng)實(shí)際狀況。針對這一問題,論文著重對考慮風(fēng)電相關(guān)性的隨機(jī)生產(chǎn)模擬方法展開研究。首先對風(fēng)電場出力建立其概率性時序模型。對于出力具有相關(guān)性的若干風(fēng)電場,選擇某一基準(zhǔn)風(fēng)電場并依據(jù)其風(fēng)速歷史數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計特性建立其風(fēng)速的概率性時序模型;再根據(jù)該風(fēng)電場風(fēng)速與各風(fēng)電場出力的聯(lián)合分布律得到風(fēng)電場出力關(guān)于基準(zhǔn)風(fēng)電場風(fēng)速的條件概率;在風(fēng)速概率性時序模型的基礎(chǔ)上結(jié)合風(fēng)電出力的條件概率,最終得到可以體現(xiàn)相關(guān)性的各個風(fēng)電場出力的概率型時序模型。隨后對電力系統(tǒng)內(nèi)各電源建立概率性時序模型并進(jìn)行隨機(jī)生產(chǎn)模擬。引入通用生成函數(shù)這一數(shù)學(xué)工具,對常規(guī)電源考慮隨機(jī)故障影響建立其通用生成函數(shù)模型;對風(fēng)電場則基于所建立的風(fēng)電場出力概率型時序模型,建立體現(xiàn)風(fēng)電場相關(guān)性的通用生成函數(shù)模型。利用通用生成函數(shù)運(yùn)算規(guī)則對電源逐個合并等效,得到系統(tǒng)等效電源的通用生成函數(shù)模型。將系統(tǒng)等效電源與負(fù)荷在時間軸上進(jìn)行供需匹配,得到各電源的發(fā)電量以及系統(tǒng)可靠性指標(biāo),完成隨機(jī)生產(chǎn)模擬計算。最后提出基于通用生成函數(shù)的電力系統(tǒng)風(fēng)電消納能力以及棄風(fēng)情況評估方法。在前文隨機(jī)生產(chǎn)模擬計算方法基礎(chǔ)上計算得到系統(tǒng)每日最小技術(shù)出力的概率分布并建立其通用生成函數(shù)模型,與負(fù)荷以及風(fēng)電出力的通用生成函數(shù)模型進(jìn)行組合運(yùn)算,得到系統(tǒng)風(fēng)電消納能力的概率分布以及棄風(fēng)電量期望值的計算結(jié)果。另外根據(jù)算例結(jié)果提出提高系統(tǒng)風(fēng)電消納能力的建議。整個研究提出的隨機(jī)生產(chǎn)模擬通用生成函數(shù)方法可以兼顧風(fēng)電相關(guān)性與系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行的時序性,模擬結(jié)果對系統(tǒng)實(shí)際運(yùn)行情況的反映更加詳實(shí)準(zhǔn)確,能對風(fēng)電接入電力系統(tǒng)的規(guī)劃與運(yùn)行提供方法支撐。
[Abstract]:With the large-scale utilization of wind power resources all over the world, the wind power penetration rate of power systems in various countries and regions is gradually increasing. The impact of large-scale wind power integration with random fluctuation characteristics on power systems is becoming increasingly obvious. At the same time, the problem of wind abandonment caused by various restrictive factors is also very prominent. Production simulation is an analytical tool that can simulate and evaluate the economic reliability of the long-term operation of the power system. It is helpful to analyze the impact of wind power integration on the power system and the situation of wind power absorption. To solve this problem, this paper focuses on the study of stochastic production simulation method considering wind power correlation. First, the probabilistic time series model of wind farm output is established. The probability time series model of wind speed is established based on the statistical characteristics of historical data, and then the conditional probability of wind farm output with respect to the reference wind farm wind speed is obtained according to the joint distribution law of wind speed and wind farm output. Then, the probabilistic time series model of each power source in the power system is established and the stochastic production simulation is carried out. The general generation function is introduced as a mathematical tool to establish a general generation function model for the conventional power source considering the effect of stochastic faults. For the wind farm, the general generation function model is established based on the established wind farm. A general generating function model reflecting the correlation of wind farms is established by using the output probability time series model. The general generating function model of the equivalent power supply is obtained by combining the power sources one by one according to the operation rules of the general generating function. Finally, a general generating function based method for evaluating the wind power absorption capacity and wind abandonment is proposed. The probability distribution of the minimum daily technical output of the system is calculated on the basis of the previous stochastic production simulation method and its general generating function model is established. The general generating function model of load and wind power output is combined to calculate the probability distribution of wind power absorption capacity and the expected value of abandoned wind power. Considering the correlation of wind power and the timing of system operation, the simulation results reflect the actual operation of the system more accurately, and can provide method support for the planning and operation of wind power integration into power system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TM614

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本文編號：2237770