發(fā)布時間：2018-04-11 12:05

  本文選題：風險分析 + 粗糙集理論　； 參考：《天津大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著工業(yè)化的發(fā)展，危險品的生產(chǎn)量和運輸量與年俱增，對人類安全健康和自然環(huán)境的危害正在逐步擴大和加深。據(jù)統(tǒng)計，我國95％以上的危險品涉及異地運輸問題，其中82％左右是通過道路運輸?shù)模�年運輸量達2億噸左右。近年來危險品事故頻發(fā)，后果極其嚴重，這是因為危險品運輸量逐年增加，運輸管理不能適應(yīng)如此大量的危險品運輸。危險品運輸是關(guān)系到國民生命財產(chǎn)安全的大問題，基于風險分析的路徑優(yōu)化可降低危險品道路運輸風險，為管理部門以及運輸企業(yè)提供相應(yīng)的決策支持，已達到降低運輸風險的目的。 本文首先概述了國內(nèi)外危險品運輸管理情況，危險品運輸風險分析與路徑優(yōu)化的研究情況，發(fā)展趨勢以及存在的主要問題；經(jīng)過分析200起具有代表性的危險品運輸案例，得出危險品運輸事故的一般特性并對危險品運輸事故致因進行研究，明確運輸事故發(fā)生的原因，并用粗糙集理論對影響因素的屬性重要度進行排序，識別影響危險品運輸?shù)闹饕�因素與次要因素；構(gòu)建了風險評價標準與流程，從事故率與事故后果兩個方面對運輸風險進行評價，構(gòu)建了風險評價模型；針對危險品回收問題，將危險品回收時間窗約束引入到模型中，建立了同時考慮時間與運輸成本的多目標VRPTW模型，通過對四種啟發(fā)式算法做比較，基于遺傳算法求在求解VRP問題上的優(yōu)勢，利用遺傳算法解出模型的帕累托最優(yōu)解，為危險品運輸選線作參考；最后，本文提出了危險品運輸風險的控制流程，，危險品運輸風險的控制技術(shù)手段，針對人，車，物，環(huán)境以及管理這五個方面，給出了具體的危險品運輸風險控制對策。
[Abstract]:With the development of industrialization, the production and transportation of dangerous goods increase with each year, and the harm to human safety and natural environment is gradually expanding and deepening.According to statistics, more than 95% of the dangerous goods in China are related to the transportation of different places, of which 82% are transported by road, and the annual transportation volume is about 200 million tons.In recent years, dangerous goods accidents occur frequently, the consequences are extremely serious, this is because the volume of dangerous goods transport increases year by year, transportation management can not adapt to such a large number of dangerous goods transport.Dangerous goods transportation is a major problem related to the safety of national life and property. The route optimization based on risk analysis can reduce the risk of road transportation of dangerous goods and provide corresponding decision support for management departments and transportation enterprises.The aim of reducing transport risks has been achieved.This paper first summarizes the management of dangerous goods transportation at home and abroad, the research situation of risk analysis and route optimization of dangerous goods transportation, the development trend and the main problems, and analyzes 200 representative cases of dangerous goods transportation.The general characteristics of dangerous goods transportation accidents are obtained, and the causes of dangerous goods transportation accidents are studied, and the causes of transportation accidents are clarified, and the importance of the factors is sorted by rough set theory.Identify the main factors and secondary factors that affect the transportation of dangerous goods, construct the risk evaluation standard and process, evaluate the transportation risk from accident rate and accident consequence, construct the risk evaluation model, and aim at the problem of dangerous goods recovery,The time window constraint of dangerous goods recovery is introduced into the model, and a multi-objective VRPTW model considering both time and transportation cost is established. By comparing four heuristic algorithms, the advantages of solving VRP problem based on genetic algorithm are obtained.Using genetic algorithm to solve the model of Pareto optimal solution for dangerous goods transportation route selection for reference. Finally, this paper proposed the dangerous goods transport risk control process, dangerous goods transport risk control technology means, aimed at people, cars, objects,The environment and management of the five aspects, the specific transport of dangerous goods risk control countermeasures.
【學位授予單位】：天津大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U492.22;U492.81

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