發(fā)布時間：2018-04-05 20:26

  本文選題：污水處理PPP項目　切入點：特許期　出處：《杭州電子科技大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：水務建設是國家經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中的重要基礎性建設,我國經(jīng)濟快速發(fā)展的過程中,水污染治理已經(jīng)成為急需面對的重大問題�？茖W合理的投資決策是緩解當前污水處理行業(yè)嚴峻局面的有效措施,為了克服污水處理項目傳統(tǒng)投資決策中的政府資金短缺、風險集中等問題,“PPP模式”作為公共基礎設施多元化治理的一種新模式應運而生。針對污水處理PPP項目的投資決策問題,本文將Black-Scholes期權定價模型應用于污水處理PPP項目傳統(tǒng)的NPV投資決策模型中,構建了最優(yōu)特許期決策模型,該模型彌補了污水處理PPP項目傳統(tǒng)NPV投資決策模型中價值計算模糊的缺點,同時,本文創(chuàng)新性的運用HP濾波法,通過運行EVIEWS軟件對連續(xù)多年的污水處理量進行濾波分析,精確得出Black-Scholes期權定價模型中的重要參數(shù)值波動率σ,最后通過將各參數(shù)值帶入優(yōu)化模型,得出在協(xié)議約定期限內剛好達到投資者期望的投資回報值時的特許期,即為污水處理PPP項目投資決策中的最優(yōu)特許期,以輔助政府和社會投資者更加科學的做出污水處理PPP項目的投資決策。最后,本文以諸暨市在建污水處理PPP項目為例,通過運行本文所構建的優(yōu)化后的決策模型,對諸暨市污水處理PPP項目的特許期進行分析評價,并對政府和社會投資者在對其他PPP項目進行特許協(xié)議投資決策時提供參考。
[Abstract]:Water affairs construction is an important basic construction in the national economic development. In the process of rapid economic development in China, water pollution control has become an urgent and important problem.Scientific and reasonable investment decision is an effective measure to alleviate the severe situation of sewage treatment industry. In order to overcome the problems of shortage of government funds and concentration of risks in the traditional investment decision of sewage treatment projects,As a new mode of diversified governance of public infrastructure, "PPP mode" came into being.Aiming at the investment decision of PPP project, this paper applies the Black-Scholes option pricing model to the traditional NPV investment decision model of the sewage treatment PPP project, and constructs the optimal concession decision model.This model makes up the shortcoming of fuzzy value calculation in the traditional NPV investment decision model of sewage treatment PPP project. At the same time, this paper innovatively uses HP filter method to filter and analyze the amount of sewage treatment for many years by running EVIEWS software.The volatility 蟽 of the important parameter value in the Black-Scholes option pricing model is accurately obtained. Finally, by bringing the parameter values into the optimization model, the concession period is obtained when the investment return value of the investor is exactly reached within the agreed period.That is, the optimal concession period in the investment decision of sewage treatment PPP project, in order to assist the government and social investors to make more scientific investment decision of sewage treatment PPP project.Finally, taking the PPP project under construction in Zhuji city as an example, this paper analyzes and evaluates the concession period of Zhuji sewage treatment PPP project by running the optimized decision-making model constructed in this paper.It also provides reference for government and social investors to make investment decision of concession agreement for other PPP projects.
【學位授予單位】：杭州電子科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X703;F283

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本文編號：1716327